Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mickificki]

Very light volume in the premarket and light volume in this thread...Calm before the storm?

waves are rolling back quietly as the tsunami begins its arrival...

 

[Cherry Wine]

That's a tough one. This is pretty much a guess, but I feel like the percentage that will try is going to be very high, as in the majority.

However, I'd also guess that front-runners will buy up a lot of shares this week to sell to indexers during the cross, which should drive up the stock price. If that's not going to be enough to satisfy demand from indexers during the cross, I'd guess some buying will spill over to next week.

Not super confident in this, but you asked for a guess

That was my thought as well - why wouldn't they buy then? Just seems like the most straight-up way to add TSLA. I thought that it could result in an interesting dynamic wherein we see a lot of volatility within a tight range - maybe $600-$650 - as speculators alternate between buying in at attractive levels and getting antsy waiting for the indexers to show up.

 

[FrankSG]

That was my thought as well - why wouldn't they buy then? Just seems like the most straight-up way to add TSLA. I thought that it could result in an interesting dynamic wherein we see a lot of volatility within a tight range - maybe $600-$650 - as speculators alternate between buying in at attractive levels and getting antsy waiting for the indexers to show up.

I personally still believe there's almost no way demand from indexers can be fulfilled at this level.

 

[pz1975]

 

[Cherry Wine]

I personally still believe there's almost no way demand from indexers can be fulfilled at this level.

Gotcha - thought being, just the buying from frontrunners looking to sell on Friday's closing cross alone will be more than enough to drive up the price between now and Friday.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

This pretty much sums up the shorts:

View attachment 617605

Nobody is right all the time. In the stock market you make money if you are right more than you are wrong. Because of the overpriced MACROS and the 11 year straight bull run coupled with the fact that Tesla at 600 Billion market cap is fairly priced. I would take a lot of the table.

 

[FrankSG]

Gotcha - thought being, just the buying from frontrunners looking to sell on Friday's closing cross alone will be more than enough to drive up the price between now and Friday.

Yeah, I think that that + delta hedging mechanisms should be plenty to give it a decent squeeze this week, even if sellers show up at $650+.

So far it's pretty bullish to me that we're up 4-5% on such low volume.

 

[Highway2Heel]

Here comes TMC...

“...shall we dance?!”

 

[joh01652]

Rrrggh...Schwab is down. Anyone know the RSI for TSLA at the moment?

 

[2daMoon]

Here comes TMC...

“...shall we dance?!”

I love the smell of TSLA in the morning!

 

[Bet TSLA]

So excited to see this part play out!

Robs' analysis is second to none!

• at least 15% of available shares are disappearing permanently into index funds
• up to 22% of available shares are disappearing likely permanently into benchmarked funds

The first number (give or take a % or two) is pretty well known as fact.

That second # continues to make no sense to me.

Benchmark funds have 0 requirement to buy TSLA ever.

Those that thought it would outperform the overall index would've already bought (ARKs funds for example)

Those that think it won't outperform the index won't magically do so now if they still think it won't....and even if they did- doing so during what everyone expects to be a temporary spike in prices would be the dumbest possible time to do so.

Then again remember buffets bet? Most active funds don't beat the index, so I guess they're mostly run by idiots and expecting them to not do the dumbest thing possible is a fools errand?

I think you're just misunderstanding the notion of 0. Now and in the past, 0 interest in TSLA meant they didn't own TSLA. It's too hard. These people are very conservative, low risk. If you're benchmarked against an index with no TSLA then there's no point in fooling around with TSLA. But as soon as the benchmark buys TSLA, then the new 0 is owning exactly the same percentage. So if you are a conservative, low risk fund manager then you buy TSLA to be equal weight with the benchmark, and since it's too hard you never think about it again.

It's mechanical. And it happens at as close to exactly the same time and price as the index funds. But so long as you don't diverge, why should you care? So there you go. It's the new 0. And except when the S&P rebalances, it's pretty much locked up.

Edit: added a few words for clarity.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Exactly same happening here in NYC - trying to put a test sell order from the call options I hold. Phone line 800 ... rings and then goes busy signal - Chat message is not working at this time - WTF ?

View attachment 617608

If you log out and log back in, i think that will clear up the issue. Of course that works after $TSLA is up $25 from when i initially wanted to buy it

 

[Lessmog]

Rrrggh...Schwab is down. Anyone know the RSI for TSLA at the moment?

Well, Nordnet.se also went down a few mins ago.

 

[CanadaEV]

No rush

 

[Krugerrand]

Nobody is right all the time. In the stock market you make money if you are right more than you are wrong. Because of the overpriced MACROS and the 11 year straight bull run coupled with the fact that Tesla at 600 Billion market cap is fairly priced. I would take a lot of the table.

Oh, Bob.

 

[JustMe]

waves are rolling back quietly as the tsunami begins its arrival...

Woe betide short-sellers who don’t seek higher ground before their toes get wet

 

[NooB_cat]

I didn't see any posts about this yet so thought I'd share.... we're all too busy watching the share price!?!
(apologies if already posted & I missed it!)


Tesla (TSLA) will kick out Occidental Petroleum from the S&P 100 index

"A recent announcement from the S&P Dow Jones Indices has indicated that Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) will be replacing Apartment Investment and Management Co. in the S&P 500. Apart from this, Tesla is also being added to the S&P 100, where it would be replacing Occidental Petroleum Corp, one of the United States’ most notable petroleum producers.

The Standard & Poor’s 100 index is a subset of the S&P 500, and it tracks the performance of the 100 largest stocks in the United States by market cap. As noted in an Investopedia report, the S&P 100 is a capitalization-weighted index, and its members are selected from a broad range of industries. This makes the index a fair proxy for US corporate performance. "

 

[H Mak]

Good price and good volume.

 

[amolina]

If anything, it looks like capping on the downside to me. Seems to me like somebody is very carefully buying up every time it drops below $xxx, and ups this limit by a few $s every so often.

Random observation that could be totally wrong, but that's the feeling I get from observing the stock movement..

This is also my feeling. Like clockwork someone has been buying everytime SP hits EMA 20 days.

On the other side, Someone else mysteriously puts in a big sell order to push SP below key levels that momentarily runs the SP massively down in the 1 min chart. SP flickers down for less than a fraction of a second.

TWS app from Interactive brokers is sooo compute heavy , hopefully will grab it in a video for you all.

Another thing to notice is that QQQ running down today barely even moves TSLA down. Also to note TSLA is a green in a sea of red EV tickers.

 

[Highway2Heel]

So far, dips are being bought...vigorously...