Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

My assumption would be that S/X would be able to use the V3 but just charge at the old rates. If not, every Tesla owner is going to be very unhappy.

I would prepare yourself for the possibility then that there's going to be a lot of upset S/X owners. I don't see why an existing S/X owner should be upset that V3 is only for updated S/X's with an updated battery chemistry. I AM a S owner which I bought 2 years ago and I would not one bit of a complaint. You can't hold back the future.....S/X owners should be aware of this the most. We all knew we were buying technology......which get's outdated quickly. It's ridiculous that people nowadays are expecting to buy something that has future proof technology when it comes to Tesla yet phone batteries improves(longer lasting and faster charging) every year. Am I supposed to complain that my Galaxy S8 doesn't charge at the rate of the new Galaxy S10??? Tesla has spoiled people.

If you're a S/X owner in the past 2 months well guess what you got an incredible deal on the pricing.

 

[Fact Checking]

My assumption would be that S/X would be able to use the V3 but just charge at the old rates. If not, every Tesla owner is going to be very unhappy.

Unlikely, Tesla will likely speed up every car by at least some amount, except perhaps really ancient chemistries.

Elon said this about Supercharger v3 in 2018:

"Yeah I think we'll have a lot more to say about that when we announced generation 3 of the superchargers because that will we'll be doing much more of an integrated solar battery system with the Superchargers. So today only a few of the supercharger systems have solar and battery systems but long term we want to have almost all of them have that. And the nice thing is that if you got like a solar powered kind of like a solar powered carport area and Tesla batteries then even if you need to be connected to the grid. So it's sort of like even proof against like a zombie apocalypse would still work is always on to near the supercharger I suppose. But yeah. And it'll be able to work anywhere even if there's not good power infrastructure."

[...]

"I wouldn't say that this is the order of magnitude improvement but I think a factor of 3 or 4 is possible. Now the it won't be applicable to all battery chemistries. So 2012 chemistry can take the charge rate of carnt chemistry but I wish you could wish we could but we just had to make a bunch of improvements to increase the charge rate."
​

The transcript is jumbled a bit (maybe his words were too), but I think he's saying that 2012 chemistries probably can't charge faster. Later chemistries, almost certainly.

Also, the solar+battery combo was long speculated on - maybe the 8pm demo will show supercharging from energy that was charged into PowerPacks during the day, using Tesla's own solar cells?

This would explain the cryptic 'lower opex with v3 Supercharging' reference Tesla made in the Q4 filings.

 

[jerry33]

I would prepare yourself for the possibility then that there's going to be a lot of upset S/X owners. I don't see why an existing S/X owner should be upset that V3 is only for updated S/X's with an updated battery chemistry. I AM a S owner which I bought 2 years ago and I would not one bit of a complaint. You can't hold back the future.....S/X owners should be aware of this the most. We all knew we were buying technology......which get's outdated quickly.

If you're a S/X owner in the past 2 months well guess what you got an incredible deal on the pricing.

The only reason I would be upset is that in the blank areas, if they only put in V3, then I can't charge there. I'd think they'd be smarter than that.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The only reason I would be upset is that in the blank areas, if they only put in V3, then I can't charge there. I'd think they'd be smarter than that.

I would assume that any S/X can charge at a V3 charger.....it's just the charge rate will be limited. They system would essentially read that it's an outdated S/X can only be charged at say 120 rate.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Disqus - Tesla releases first glimpse of Supercharger V3 ahead of launch in Fremont

Speaking of backdoors, you can follow the comments on Electrek without going to Electrek, via disqus.

New thread just started on supercharger v3. Link above.

 

[Buckminster]

So let's speculate that the V3 SuC is indeed only for the M3. Why would that be? Surely it can only be down to either the chemistry or the pack design having better thermal management?

To me, it doesn't look good that the flag-ship Model S&X cannot charge at as high a speed as the $35k cheapie M3SR.

So I see two possibilities:
- this is the another reason for the price drop
- one more thing this evening (tomorrow here) will be S&X refresh, maybe just batteries, maybe more

WAG

My percentage expectations:

Chance of something else of significance (not just a basic fast supercharger) - 70%
Solar powered Supercharger - 10%
Snake - 20%
M3 only Supercharger - 20%
S/X refresh - 5%
Semi, Roadster news - 5%
Burger Restaurant - 25%
New gallery / coffee shop / Supercharger facilities - 30%
AP/FSD updates - 25%

 

[Fact Checking]

Disqus - Tesla releases first glimpse of Supercharger V3 ahead of launch in Fremont

Speaking of backdoors, you can follow the comments on Electrek without going to Electrek, via disqus.

New thread just started on supercharger v3. Link above.

BTW.:

"The teaser image looks very similar to the current generation of Supercharger stations, if not identical, but the charge cable actually looks much thinner, which would be surprising considering the new generation is supposed to enable a higher charge rate."​

This seems to support the recent leak that the cable is liquid cooled.

 

[S3XY]

Not trying to rain on the battery swap parade, but people are still rather fond of their cars and are thinking of their battery packs as property, and don't want to give up their well maintained, well looked after battery pack to some anonymous lottery of everyone's else's poorly maintained, badly degraded battery packs.

Also, if SuperCharger v3 is indeed an upgrade to 200 kW max charging speeds then we will probably begin the phase of diminishing returns in recharging speeds.

Hell, I don't even like to swap out my well maintained 20lb propane tank.

 

[Fact Checking]

New gallery / coffee shop / Supercharger facilities - 30%

Tesla opening a retail presence at every Supercharger v3 location!!

Just kidding, just kidding. ​

 

[tivoboy]

If there's a S/X refresh, be prepared for another massive wave of complaints from recent S/X buyers. Potentially unpopular opinion, but I've been pretty annoyed with the entitled response from this vocal subset of Tesla customers, especially in light of the company's financial situation.

All that said, I don't think there will be a refresh announced at the SC3 event.

there will be an S refresh and possibly X, although I think X will just go away. We should probably be seeing a new S next year or after (in Elon time he'll say 2020).

I don't know if they will say anything today though, but I think they would like to prop things up.

 

[mekberg]

BTW.:

"The teaser image looks very similar to the current generation of Supercharger stations, if not identical, but the charge cable actually looks much thinner, which would be surprising considering the new generation is supposed to enable a higher charge rate."​

This seems to support the recent leak that the cable is liquid cooled.

Had a reply typed up to this effect. Seems like user-facing hardware is the same form factor/backwards compatible. Internals are different/improved. Most of the difference is in the other supporting hardware.

 

[KarenRei]

Meanwhile, Neal is busy today on Twitter playing "BMW Fire Truther":

Bark on Twitter

(A local news journalist reported on a fire in a parked BMW, and Neal is insisting it must be fake, even though the owner is insisting with him that it's not)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I do kinda wonder if a actual event is really needed for V3 debut. It is a big deal but a whole event where you're inviting people to the event? Seems a bit over the top especially when they could done the announcement of the 35 Model 3 at the same time/event as V3 Supercharging.

 

[UncaNed]

My percentage expectations:

Chance of something else of significance (not just a basic fast supercharger) - 70%
Solar powered Supercharger - 10%
Snake - 20%
M3 only Supercharger - 20%
S/X refresh - 5%
Semi, Roadster news - 5%
Burger Restaurant - 25%
New gallery / coffee shop / Supercharger facilities - 30%
AP/FSD updates - 25%

Awwww... No positive SP expectations?

 

[Fact Checking]

although I think X will just go away

Highly unlikely, the X is actually the more popular one of the two formats, despite being higher priced.

The X is also gorgeous AF.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I wouldn't call James Anderson of Ballie Gifford an idiot, he seems like a very calm, intelligent chap, he was likely merely responding to a loaded question of "what if Elon was to be removed as CEO", and I think his answer is a good one.

No, the idiot here, is Charley Grant, he's an imbecile of the highest order.

Agreed. All that’s been left unsaid suggests to me that he just indicated Tesla would still survive if Elon was no longer CEO, not that it was a suggestion that he shouldn’t be. I’ve learned through experience that anything such publications say should be taken as *technically* true but with implications that are less than truthful.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Highly unlikely, the X is actually the more popular one of the two formats, despite being higher priced.

Yeah the X and especially the Falcon wing door( despite how difficult they are to make) are showstoppers that stand out from every other SUV. They just need to update the frame a bit to get a bit away from the egg shell.

 

[mekberg]

I do kinda wonder if a actual event is really needed for V3 debut. It is a big deal but a whole event where you're inviting people to the event? Seems a bit over the top especially when they could done the announcement of the 35 Model 3 at the same time/event as V3 Supercharging.

Yes I was thinking the same. Seems a bit overkill.

This event could also be used for SR handovers. There is no way Tesla could have kept the lid on the SR availability prior to this event which is why the (hastened/poor) SR announcement came last week.

 

[Zaxxon]

Let's not get expectations up too high: I'd be totally happy with a simple 200 kW charging demo. That again will place Tesla ahead of what the competition is planning to deploy...

My assumption would be that S/X would be able to use the V3 but just charge at the old rates. If not, every Tesla owner is going to be very unhappy.

I agree that we shouldn't get our expectations too high. If all that is announced is 200 kW peak at v3, no more stall roulette at v3, and higher taper curve for the Model 3, that's still enormously good news for current S/X owners, as it means significantly reduced stall time demand for the overall fleet. Everyone benefits from that.

Any 'one more thing' is an added bonus.

 

[Cobbler]

Imagine a refreshed model S, no moustache and with the new roadster headlights. Single big screen (like in those leaks a few months ago), and new venting system. 18650 cells in the latest version batterypack (easier core cooling of each cell, allowing higher power draw) in a p105d config. Lost a few pounds, slightly more range and0-60mph in 2.3s