Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Exactly. We know what the taper was. We don't know if they adjusted it. If it's unadjusted, then it'll only matter at low SoCs. If it is adjusted, however... could be very significant.

I forget, what time is the event? And has there been any info about a livestream or whatnot?

Folks should (not you Karen, just folks in general) remind themselves the taper curve is set by the BMS on the car being charged. The DC faster charger just sends the amount of volts/amps being requested by the car.

The Model 3 firmware will have to be updated to allow a different taper curve.

Note that Supercharger V2 would also charge at these higher rates later in the curve, as long as the tapered charge rate is below ~110Kw or so. The Model 3 currently tapers to below that before ~50% state of charge.

So folks, don't get too excited. Its a fast charger, not Jebus. H. Supercharger.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Exactly. The press are ideologically biased, uninformed, and in the case of Tesla, additionally financially incented to be biased against Tesla. Horrible.

The vilification of Tesla strikes me as antithetical to the supposed American values of hard work and innovation, not to mention it completely disregards the economic and strategic value of the company for the nation as a whole. Shows that the latter are only extolled when useful. Very disheartening and frustrating in its short-sightedness, and -- in my opinion -- evidence of a nation in decline.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Only defence is that this was a discussion hours ago out of trading hours. It's further compounded by responses being hours apart and with complaints about the responses being made earlier, but not yet caught-up with in the post backlog.

If all that makes sense.

Anyway, apologies...

I am reading this (checks time) seven minutes before closing bell.

In no 4-D universe is that fact a defense. All of your readers are in the future. Some are only minutes in the future, granted, but zero are reading in real time. Not even possible.

 

[S3XY]

So let's speculate that the V3 SuC is indeed only for the M3. Why would that be? Surely it can only be down to either the chemistry or the pack design having better thermal management?

To me, it doesn't look good that the flag-ship Model S&X cannot charge at as high a speed as the $35k cheapie M3SR.

So I see two possibilities:
- this is the another reason for the price drop
- one more thing this evening (tomorrow here) will be S&X refresh, maybe just batteries, maybe more

WAG

I don't think the increased charging speed on SuC v3's will be exclusively for Model 3's but there is probably a cutoff, before which, S&X's won't get the benefit. That is, the 18650's chemistry was likely changed around the time the 2170's came about. Any S&X with the older chemistry won't be able to take advantage of the full v3 spec.

 

[Foghat]

Joe Rogan live - talking to David Wallace-Wells on climate.

The ironic thing is we have the answers here, now, today. It’s called the business of Tesla auto and energy. It’s called a market where the best ideas win a consumer’s dollar.

There should be thousands of Tesla-like companies competing in an open market for the consumer’s dollar, but there isn’t.

The real problem is overcoming the inertia of cartel-mononpolisitc system of around control of energy scarcity, to one of distributed networks of global energy abundance.

This inertia is what keeps us from getting there. The nature of this defensive system is to defend its position, not to innovate and develop solutions which provide sustained value to human beings/consumers.

*It’s not about a lack of solutions. The solutions are here already. It’s the roadblocks, the information fencing, that prevent these solutions from getting full market exposure.

The market is screaming for Telsa-model innovation and energy abundance transformation. Consumers are willing to buy up like never before to procure the value Tesla’s business sells. This type of consumer exuberance is the holy grail of *all* business.

It has to be let happen. For it to be let happen, governments globally have to stop protecting cartel-monopolistic system by safeguard the individual freedom of consumers as to chose, invest in, or create the best products and services from where ever that may come — the most innovative companies win, not the most defensive.

I think the next move for climate activists such as David Wallace is to transition to recognizing these existing solutions and promoting the development of companies like Tesla auto and energy in order to accelerate our action to a better environmental future. We don’t have to compromise our thriving lifestyles to get there, we just have to be allowed to access those product market which we value.

Tesla’s massive growth and demand prove this to be extremely viable and a positively promising way to a clean energy production and consumption future, which is the ultimate goal of climate activism.

 

[EVDRVN]

I hope they warm up the packs on any 3 there or it will not be good. Any pack at 50-60 will have severely throttled charging unlike an S. Someone must be driving laps someplace.

 

[SebastianR]

The Model 3 is killing it in Norway. The record day for most Model 3 deliveries was yesterday (174 registrations in one day) which has just been topped by today (177 registrations until now). If the rest of the month continues like that - oh boy - I can't imagine...

In contrast: DK not doing so well: Nrpla.de - Find dit køretøj hurtigt shows how Tesla did well in February but at a much lower level: 87 cars in Feb and 15 cars in March...

 

[Curt Renz]

...I forget, what time is the event? And has there been any info about a livestream or whatnot?

8PM PT / 4AM GMT. No to the latter.

If 8 pm PDT is correct, that would be 3 am UT/GMT. A reminder to all that beginning this coming Sunday, March 10, most of the US will switch to daylight saving time. Write your congressmen if you dislike this artificially induced jet lag. I have.

 

[Papafox]

I normally leave these comments just for my daily charts page, but this was such a flagrant manipulation I'll share it here too. The whole day of trading was a game of "whack the male" as shorts weren't willing to allow the type of rally that took place in the first 15 minutes of trading today. Thus, we saw the sledge hammer come out any time TSLA got too frisky. The day concluded with TSLA well in the green but a sudden burst of selling by you-know-who allowed the SP to dip barely into the red for the final three minutes (before it popped back into the green). In other words, today's trading was really a work of fiction and not a reasonable gauge of investor sentiment.

Edit: If you know how to read a chart like this, however, the story it tells is one of longs ready to bid the SP higher but shorts expending financial muscle in a desperate attempt to keep this dip alive.A "whack the mole" day is often what you see as a dip is transitioning to a bounce.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Ok, this is 129.8k VINs in Q1 alone, and things are getting crazy: the "85% VIN method" which worked well in Q2, Q3 and Q4 is now projecting a Q1 Model 3 production target of 110k units, which is nuts: 8.4k/week production which looks very unlikely.

Note that this many VINs is probably going to bring the Bloomberg tracker out of whack as well. This quarter's P&D report (due on April 1-2) is gonna be crazy.

Surely we would have heard leaks around supplier volume upgrades if this was real. I think it's more likely they have cracked your 85% code and are throwing a curveball. It seems unlikely production nearly doubles QoQ without some sort of news leaking.

That said, they have the battery capacity to hit this volume if the rumoured 35GWh annualised rate has been reached with the new Panasonic lines.

 

[lascavarian]

Yeah maybe. I would buy a longer range X immediately if one came out to try and solve for long distance travel since the SCs in these rural areas seem to keep getting pushed out further into the future.

It is best to be a super charger solution IMO. I used to have a PHEV where I carried a cold useless ICE plus fuel plus exhaust system etc around with me all the time on battery and eventually it occurred to me to be horrible idea. Now I have a LR Model 3 and it still occurs to me that most of that battery weight is wasted since mostly I don't need all that range.

A SC that solved/improved charging speeds along with better deployment of chargers (bit more evenly) is the most efficient solution. Save those extra batteries for making more EVs instead of just carrying them around all day long on typically short trips. It is a learning curve and we will figure it out. Just my 2 cents.

 

[tinm]

So in a follow-up to the Elon Rock Tweet - this is why Twitter is so powerful for Tesla, when Elon can respond directly to customers in this way. You can bet your ass this will happen too.

And note 289k likes for the original Tweet, which is insane!

Elon Musk on Twitter


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Respectfully disagree. Hell there's a bunch of superchargers that are years late being opened in New Mexico, but I'm not going to tweet to Elon about it.

Not that I don't also take delight when Elon responds directly to some random person on Twitter. The reason I disagree is that this isn't Elon's job. He's micromanaging. He's not letting someone else do this job, and he should. He should be cultivating a whole team within Tesla to respond to these kinds of requests. The right expectation for a Tesla customer, in my opinion, is that he or she should a) know who to contact or at least how to contact Tesla in the right way to convey a particular concern, and b) be confident knowing that that concern will be responded to promptly, and with accountability. Period.

Otherwise we have the Elon Lottery. Maybe he will reply to you. Maybe he won't. (With odds similar to a lottery, you can safely bet he won't.)

Sure, again, it's a thrill to see Elon answer your question on Twitter. Nothing beats the CEO of a hot company answering a request for a feature or change or new thing. Imagine if Steve Jobs had done this on Twitter, for example. But over time it is symptomatic of something else, something that might suggest Elon's not letting go.

I suspect this is one of the reasons we have the ongoing customer/company communication problems we have with Tesla... because a healthier culture inside the company has never had a chance to flourish.

I'd rather see the official Tesla account on Twitter evolving to be more talkative and responsive to customer requests, even doing what other companies do (offer to open up a Direct Message channel, for instance, for each individual request).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Surely we would have heard leaks around supplier volume upgrades if this was real. I think it's more likely they have cracked your 85% code and are throwing a curveball. It seems unlikely production nearly doubles QoQ without some sort of news leaking.

That said, they have the battery capacity to hit this volume if the rumoured 35GWh annualised rate has been reached with the new Panasonic lines.

We didn't really hear any leaks about them going from 5k/week to 6k/week and yet it's very obvious they are above the 5k/week threshold, easily. I think the only leak we've heard when it comes to Model 3 production is when Tesla started placing orders to 5/week......but that was big news because Tesla was going from like 500/week to 5,000/week. I don't think we'd really hear leaks about them going from 6k/week to 7-8/week

 

[lklundin]

The Roadster 3.0 battery upgrade was $29,000 well above $10,000

But to be fair, less than 2500 of those could ever be sold.

 

[winfield100]

NPR's ATC (All things considered) has a 4 min, 39 second blurb on EV's but mostly Tesla with a "the US may become a backwater if they dont get crcking at getting EV's because Tesla 3 sold 140,000........ etc and how China is going great guns on EV's mildly positive
The Increasing Demand For Electric Cars

 

[lklundin]

No that is like all the people saying Elon promised this or that. They didn't lose, they settled. Neither party won.

Fair enough.

"Actually, Tesla had to settle a class-action lawsuit for having sold the FSD option without delivering what they promised."

I think they would not want to re-experience that.

 

[CorneliusXX]

My percentage expectations:

Chance of something else of significance (not just a basic fast supercharger) - 70%
Solar powered Supercharger - 10%
Snake - 20%
M3 only Supercharger - 20%
S/X refresh - 5%
Semi, Roadster news - 5%
Burger Restaurant - 25%
New gallery / coffee shop / Supercharger facilities - 30%
AP/FSD updates - 25%

You say 70% chance of something else happening but then list 140% chance of the remaining options happening. Did you forget to divide by two?

 

[MP3Mike]

Yeah maybe. I would buy a longer range X immediately if one came out to try and solve for long distance travel since the SCs in these rural areas seem to keep getting pushed out further into the future. But more range isn't what I'm asking for in my comment. I'm just asking for the US to be filled out so a person can comfortably drive their existing Tesla long distance. I get priorities.

Hopefully the majority of the delay/pushout of the SC network build is because they wanted to wait for V3 to be available instead of investing more in the outdated V2 hardware.

 

[davecolene0606]

Just listening to NPR All Things Considered. John Volker (auto journalist) gave a fair if unenthusiastic discourse on electric cars. Piece began re Tesla closing its stores and passing on the savings to customers. Some relatively accurate numbers passed back and forth with sales figures for US illustrated as increasing dramatically with M3 credited for almost all the rise. Said China is the prime mover for auto manufacturers to build electric cars and the US might end up as the last ICE holdout world wide. Then began the usual range problem mantra because we drive so much further than everyone blah blah....
Last question: Are electric cars profitable? Answer: No... no one is making any money from electric cars Then goes on to compare the cost of cellphone batteries and extrapolates this out to thousands in an EV.

Very neutral piece with mostly accurate facts but a very “not ready for prime time” feeling....

We are making progress

Fire Away!

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

The vilification of Tesla strikes me as antithetical to the supposed American values of hard work and innovation, not to mention it completely disregards the economic and strategic value of the company for the nation as a whole. Shows that the latter are only extolled when useful. Very disheartening and frustrating in its short-sightedness, and -- in my opinion -- evidence of a nation in decline.

Someday there will be a movie about Elon Musk. There are a lot of people gunning for the role of the villain right now.