Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

Well I just turned 40 today.

For being a covid-disaster, 2020 has been great to me.

Instead of having a mid-life crisis thinking about if I had enough money saved for the future and my kids, this community and Tesla has utterly obliterated any chance of those thoughts.

Now I can continue being a lowly data scientist or anything else I choose without having to take more tedious managerial positions.

I can continue to properly balance work and life priorities, including prioritizing exercise over meetings.

I don't have to regret not buying a shack in 2012 that would have doubled in price - the money went even further investing it in TSLA.

In fact, my upcoming first world problem is going to be (when Tesla is a trillion dollar company) what else am I going to invest in?

Thanks for all your informative posts and tolerating my immature ones.

 

[StealthP3D]

Haven't watched yet but looks like Gali has an exclusive on battery. He is also joining dots regarding Lucid.

EDIT - Gali has seen an Apple pack made by Toshiba.

Killer battery - 47 Wh/kg from their website... Lithium Titanate, zero Cobalt & 800V.

Product name 2.9Ah cell 10Ah cell
Rated capacity 2.9Ah 10Ah
Nominal voltage 2.4V 2.4V
Output Power 520W*（SOC 50%, 10s, 25℃） 1800W*（SOC50%, 10s, 25℃）
Input Power 410W*（SOC 50%, 10s, 25℃） 1500W*（SOC 50%, 10s, 25℃）
Volumetric energy density 85Wh/L 92Wh/L
Weight energy density 46Wh/kg 47Wh/kg
Dimensions W63 × D14 × H97 mm W116 × D22 × H106 mm
Weight Approx. 150g Approx. 510g

Those energy density specs look far too low to be competitive in an automotive application.

47Wh/kg implies you could get a 47 kWh battery pack that weighed 1000 kg or 2200 lbs. (just the cells, not the structure and wiring of the pack). That's over twice the weight of a Model 3 pack for 1/2 the range. This is not commercially viable.

Let's assume the specs are wrong and it's actually 1100 Wh/kg. That gets you a 77 kWh pack (cell weight only) for 1,540 lbs., about twice the weight of a Model 3 battery pack (cells only). That's not commercially viable, at least not for what we think of as an EV with a 300 plus mile range.

But Lithium Titanate cells can possibly charge very quickly. So these would be cars with small but heavy battery packs that need a lot of charging infrastructure wherever they go. Something like this is possible but it's many years down the road.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Proceeds to end the article with this:

No one ever learns....

 

[Duffer]

Wouldn’t that be an excellent avatar for you?

(Just on behalf of everyone on this forum who are running out of eyebleach and are getting desperate because the shops will be closed because of xmas (and stocks were already low because high officials from a North American government bought everything a while ago))

I think that I've developed a tic from @Lycanthrope sharing that... uh umm "view". I am just very thankful that the Tesla version of "short shorts" are much more substantial than the more common "consumer" version that co-eds wear.

PSA: A strip of file folder attached to the left side of your monitor, covering the avatars, helps immensely.

 

[lafrisbee]

Well, there is something we can do...

We can tell all the other ants that there's no flood coming. Instead, it was just someone spitting on the ant pile again. So maybe it's time to go swimming in the new pool instead.

Without this drama like Apple, what would all these people do here - buy a CD and some Bonds? How about an annuity, yahoo!

On the other hand, if you "HODL em", you do avoid all this drama bc nothing so far can dent Tesla, and the thesis keeps getting stronger. I was doing this at one time, but then the "spitters" kept pissing me off with their FUD. I felt like I kept missing the opportunities that I saw coming but didn't act on my instincts. So I'm playing with 10-20% and keep the core. However, I'm now betting some of this core as I decided to pad my cash going into an economic crisis. This safety net comes at a cost, but worth it for me to keep my line in the sand no matter what.

This whole economy is about to short I think, so why not sell at the top and wait a few months for a massive slide like all my friends wish?

Ans: Because there's MUCH more to come and we don't know when this will happen. People simply can't imagine what's coming from Tesla, but I believe I'm getting an idea. They are erasing all the mistakes that were carried through decades of business practices. I especially love that they have their own Shop Floor Control. You likely won't find any SAP at Tesla as it's too generic in trying to do everything, and therefore inefficient and slow to change.

ANYTHING new that Tesla takes on is automatically in serious trouble of being antiquated to fade in the night. For example, and it's been quiet for a while but is literally a sleeping giant... just wait for Insurance to expand to the other States and the world. It may not improve the bottom line as they tweak it for achieving the should-costs and all our insurance becomes manageable. But it is another hidden cost that hurts Big (little) Auto and accelerates the migration to EV. The competition not only needs to try and beat Tesla, but they also must rewrite the business process and operating systems of the Factories. That's even harder to do. Anyone can make a flying car these days, but can they pull a profit or volume sales?

So I spit back now, and hopefully my posts whenever I buy or sell are helpful for others to see it. On days like this, I feel like a Viking (likely my origins as French Canadian I am told). But even the Vikings couldn't tell an eclipse of the sun from Gods being angry for ~10 mins. Their rocks thrown at the moon worked everytime bc the sun always returned! A true story that encapsulates the essence of religion and mythology.

FOMO is just too strong with FSD on the horizon. Hold or Buy, not advise. I predicted $650 by year end, so that would be just fine with me. Also, max pain is $620. It's magic! You don't have to understand it, just feel the force inside you speak. What's it telling you? I really can't find any mistakes by Tesla. My Tesla service appt or purchases get more efficient everytime (week to week, not months or years).

My main thought was, Sometimes it is great to be in the ant farm, and sometimes it ain't. But the ants really can't do much to make it go either way. AND they generally have no idea what is going to happen in the next five minutes or five months.
The only advantage we have over ants is that we made a decision to be in THIS ant farm. And we can get out when we want (not stock advice lol).

 

[JustSaying]

Is that the CES where attendees will move about the conference riding in Tesla cars through Boring Co tunnels? If so do GM think attendees will be more impressed by what Tesla has done or what GM is talking about doing?

My understanding is that CES will be "virtual" this year.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Well I just turned 40 today.

For being a covid-disaster, 2020 has been great to me.

Instead of having a mid-life crisis thinking about if I had enough money saved for the future and my kids, this community and Tesla has utterly obliterated any chance of those thoughts.

Now I can continue being a lowly data scientist or anything else I choose without having to take more tedious managerial positions.

I can continue to properly balance work and life priorities, including prioritizing exercise over meetings.

I don't have to regret not buying a shack in 2012 that would have doubled in price - the money went even further investing it in TSLA.

In fact, my upcoming first world problem is going to be (when Tesla is a trillion dollar company) what else am I going to invest in?

Thanks for all your informative posts and tolerating my immature ones.

I echo your sentiment....2020 has been great to my fam as well. This year, i was presented with several independent consulting opportunities which enabled me to be able to watch $TSLA and spend time on TMC daily. I also got to see my kids grow at home on a daily basis (Some days are better than others ) $TSLA has made us almost enough that we can safely plan for retirement without any worry about running out of $$. When Tesla is a trillion dollar company, we can all invest in SpaceX hopefully....

 

[hobbes]

OT so I´ll keep it short https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1341772357208301571

 

[Johnny Ma]

Haven't watched yet but looks like Gali has an exclusive on battery. He is also joining dots regarding Lucid.

EDIT - Gali has seen an Apple pack made by Toshiba.

Killer battery - 47 Wh/kg from their website... Lithium Titanate, zero Cobalt & 800V.

Product name 2.9Ah cell 10Ah cell
Rated capacity 2.9Ah 10Ah
Nominal voltage 2.4V 2.4V
Output Power 520W*（SOC 50%, 10s, 25℃） 1800W*（SOC50%, 10s, 25℃）
Input Power 410W*（SOC 50%, 10s, 25℃） 1500W*（SOC 50%, 10s, 25℃）
Volumetric energy density 85Wh/L 92Wh/L
Weight energy density 46Wh/kg 47Wh/kg
Dimensions W63 × D14 × H97 mm W116 × D22 × H106 mm
Weight Approx. 150g Approx. 510g

10 minutes in and it sounds too much like he's looking for a narrative to weave together a bunch of disparate bits of info. He says Apple poached Doug Field back from Tesla for a large sum of money. From Bill Wright's recent Twitter comments, sounds more like Doug was underperforming at Tesla and jumped ship.

*shrugs*

 

[Duffer]

My understanding is that CES will be "virtual" this year.

Just like GM's EV's

 

[Bet TSLA]

Ross Gerber at 3:20: "The real catalyst moving forward in my mind is taking this full self-driving just as a feature and adding margin to the car, which they're hopefully going to release any day (now).

Maybe the "Unwrapping Present" from 2020.48.12.1 is actually FSD?? One can only hope.

https://twitter.com/marc_benton/status/1341777735673266176

View attachment 620526

I couldn't get past his "actually, actually" and "take a lot of credence" and immediately launching into Apple car nonsense. I don't think I've ever heard anything new or useful from Gerber. Just general enthusiastic incoherence. More and more I am happy with Rob Maurer's willingness to say "I don't know" when asked about something he doesn't know about. Most of these clowns just yammer something, as though somebody asking them a question magically makes them have something worth saying.

I've been thinking that with Q4 probably in the bag Tesla might have much less urgency regarding releasing the FSD beta widely right now. Wouldn't they prefer to do the resulting revenue recognition in Q1, which has historically been a tough quarter for showing a profit? I can't think of any other reason to push for now as opposed to a couple of weeks from now.*

And obviously "Unwrapping Present" is most likely the holiday software release that Elon mentioned.

*Well, I'd love to play with it, but that's hardly a good reason.

 

[WattsHappening]

OT so I´ll keep it short https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1341772357208301571

I'm so glad I wasn't taking a sip of coffee when I opened up that link!

 

[Johnny Ma]

10 minutes in and it sounds too much like he's looking for a narrative to weave together a bunch of disparate bits of info. He says Apple poached Doug Field back from Tesla for a large sum of money. From Bill Wright's recent Twitter comments, sounds more like Doug was underperforming at Tesla and jumped ship.

*shrugs*

He continues, saying rumor of Apple buying Lucid...Lucid already has their battery pack defined for the Air...

Maybe there's something to it, but just sounds like rumors on top of rumors.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Haven't watched yet but looks like Gali has an exclusive on battery. He is also joining dots regarding Lucid.

EDIT - Gali has seen an Apple pack made by Toshiba.

Killer battery - 47 Wh/kg from their website... Lithium Titanate, zero Cobalt & 800V.

Product name 2.9Ah cell 10Ah cell
Rated capacity 2.9Ah 10Ah
Nominal voltage 2.4V 2.4V
Output Power 520W*（SOC 50%, 10s, 25℃） 1800W*（SOC50%, 10s, 25℃）
Input Power 410W*（SOC 50%, 10s, 25℃） 1500W*（SOC 50%, 10s, 25℃）
Volumetric energy density 85Wh/L 92Wh/L
Weight energy density 46Wh/kg 47Wh/kg
Dimensions W63 × D14 × H97 mm W116 × D22 × H106 mm
Weight Approx. 150g Approx. 510g

It looks like Gali is being played. Lithium Titanate does not have a high energy density, almost useless for car batteries. At 47 Wh/kg that is 20 kg/kWh or 2 tonnes for a 100 kWh battery (that is just the cells so the battery would be considerably heavier).

I don't doubt that Gali has seen an Apple battery pack, but that is easy, hundreds if not thousands of battery pack designs will have been made worldwide by now. What is much harder is to make one which is cheap and easy to manufacture and works well in a vehicle, you cannot tell that by looking at it (an engineer might spot obvious flaws, but Gali is not an engineer),

312 cells per pack for a 10 Ah cell at 2.4v is 7.5 kWh

Lucid are a small scale manufacturer, sure Apple could buy Lucid, but that does not give them a large scale manufacturer.

Edit: Lucid have a car just about to enter production, adding Lidar, other sensors and a suitable computer would require a complete redesign, so it is not an easy way to get data from consumers for self driving training.

Edit: it is really suspicious that the leaks are to Gali, you would expect Apple leaks to be to a dedicated Apple site (who have the contacts) or to a major news organisation (which have the reach).

Edit: Lucid have a large Saudi investment, probably not in the Saudi's interest to sell their stake at any reasonable price to Apple.

 

[transpondster]

Haven't watched yet but looks like Gali has an exclusive on battery. He is also joining dots regarding Lucid.

EDIT - Gali has seen an Apple pack made by Toshiba.

Killer battery - 47 Wh/kg from their website... Lithium Titanate, zero Cobalt & 800V.

Product name 2.9Ah cell 10Ah cell
Rated capacity 2.9Ah 10Ah
Nominal voltage 2.4V 2.4V
Output Power 520W*（SOC 50%, 10s, 25℃） 1800W*（SOC50%, 10s, 25℃）
Input Power 410W*（SOC 50%, 10s, 25℃） 1500W*（SOC 50%, 10s, 25℃）
Volumetric energy density 85Wh/L 92Wh/L
Weight energy density 46Wh/kg 47Wh/kg
Dimensions W63 × D14 × H97 mm W116 × D22 × H106 mm
Weight Approx. 150g Approx. 510g

after wasting 15 mins of my life watching it, how he managed to invest in Tsla, pure random luck?

 

[wipster]

Benzinga - 45 minutes ago: Elon Musk Floats Idea Of Starting One Parent Company To Hold Tesla, SpaceX, Boring, Neuralink

Excerpt:

When Tesla investor Dave Lee suggested to Musk to form a holding company called X, that would work as a parent company for Musk's many ventures, Musk seemed intrigued.

Cool with that as long as I have stonk in it that I can HODL...

 

[Singuy]

View attachment 620562
Proceeds to end the article with this:

View attachment 620563
No one ever learns....

This is what I find BS.

Everyone thinks Nio/Xpeng/GM/Audi/Fisker/Lucid whoever whatever can do what Tesla do easily
When apple enters the chat that has zero experience with car manufacturing or manufacturing of any kind..they instantly think they can overtake Tesla with nothing more than a business plan.

It still baffles me that everyone thinks Elon Musk's top engineers are nothing but a bunch of third class Dollar Tree product manufactures.

 

[gabeincal]

This Gali show feels like a more sophisticated version of the FUD that we are used to with regards to TSLA. I’m surprised that with such low amount (and quality) of substance, he went live with this video for over half an hour.

Poor judgment on his behalf. Even if it turns out to be somewhat true.

 

[SarahsDad]

Ross Gerber at 3:20: "The real catalyst moving forward in my mind is taking this full self-driving just as a feature and adding margin to the car, which they're hopefully going to release any day (now).

Maybe the "Unwrapping Present" from 2020.48.12.1 is actually FSD?? One can only hope.

https://twitter.com/marc_benton/status/1341777735673266176

View attachment 620526

Several Twitter posts about an upcoming announcement - Seems like too much enthusiasm for just a Christmas update i.e. new Yule Log. I think it could be FSD...

https://twitter.com/CodingMark/status/1341861046512848896

 

[Singuy]

Several Twitter posts about an upcoming announcement - Seems like too much enthusiasm for just a Christmas update i.e. new Yule Log. I think it could be FSD...

View attachment 620575

View attachment 620576

https://twitter.com/CodingMark/status/1341861046512848896

Why would someone who has FSD beta find FSD beta in this firmware really cool?