Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kanweg]

True - in some situations the FSD should just stop. But it should also know what kind of tires you have on the car. Summer tires are not suitable for snow. But with proper winter tires the situation improve a lot. And perhaps I have studded winter tires on mine. And others may put on snow chains.

True, but while I have winter tires (in a country where snow is something special), I always say: I can’t brake harder than the person behind me.

 

[StealthP3D]

True - in some situations the FSD should just stop. But it should also know what kind of tires you have on the car. Summer tires are not suitable for snow. But with proper winter tires the situation improve a lot. And perhaps I have studded winter tires on mine. And others may put on snow chains.

It would be useless to know what kind of tires the car has considering the car has the ability to measure the exact amount of traction it has on any surface. This takes into account everything that matters from the type of tire, the current air pressure, the amount of tread remaining and the road conditions. And this is the same way a skilled driver determines if their is enough traction to safely continue. In winter driving, the conditions are constantly changing and it's necessary to constantly re-appraise the situation.

Human drivers are particularly bad at this. They tend to make a go/no go decision before they leave. And once they are on the road they tend to continue until one of three things happens:

They arrive at their destination
Traffic stops moving, ending their attempt.
They crash, ending their attempt.

FSD has no ego and will stop if conditions worsen such that it is unwise to carry on. Of course that wouldn't prevent the human from taking matters into their own hands if they wanted to. Nothing can stop a human from trying. Not even a lack of winter driving skills or equipment!

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't give trading advice, but there's lot's of free opinions out there.

Bollinger Bands [ChartSchool]

And those opinions tend to be worth what you paid for them (or less).

 

[jerry33]

Human drivers are particularly bad at this. They tend to make a go/no go decision before they leave.

I have a sure fire method that's worked for years. I step out in the driveway, which is on a slope, and if I sit down suddenly I don't go.

 

[joh01652]

While more frame/structure rigidity can't hurt, my understanding of panel gap issues is that they typically have much more to do with the variability of the panels themselves, rather than the frame they are attached to. Panels are stamped and formed from thin sheets, and there can be many factors that induce variations: stamping spring back, stamping pressure, tooling wear, temperatures, pressure selection, alloy variability, etc...

On the other hand I expect a frame welded together from extrusions/stampings to be pretty tight in terms of tolerance, cooperatively speaking.

Having gone to school for, and worked in, auto repair and auto body in my younger years, I can say confidently that panel gaps come from improper attachment of the body panel in question, not in panel manufacturing. In auto body repair for example, the individual tasked with reassembling the damaged vehicle after getting the frame or subframes straightened/repaired has tools that assist in making sure the panel lines are straight, lie evenly with adjacent panels, and match other panel gaps. More often than not this required two people (hoods, tailgates, door, etc, are heavy and awkward to hold by oneself)--it can be difficult, time consuming work. I personally found it to be the hardest part of my job.

Sure, you can get a warped replacement panel once in a while, but generally that is found upon delivery and dealt with before it is painted and installed. Regarding new vehicles, I've not worked in a modern assembly factory, but I'd imagine panel gaps still arise from human error or inattention--not the automated manufacturing of the panel.

Panel gaps are not hard things to identify and correct--they just require time and the motivation to do it right.

 

[goinfraftw]

Does anyone have info or a link on how valuation multiples change as a, specifically, tech company transitions from growth to saturation?

Wondering the timeline of valuation multiple change as Tesla's potential goes from latent to actual in terms of revenue.

e.g. EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Multiple) by Sector/Industry 1995 – 2020

 

[chiller]

A weird thing has happened in Norway. A bunch of old Model S have showed up in inventory with an extremely low milage. I count 17 cars now with less than 1000km on the odo, and you can double that if you bump it up to 2k km.
Where do these cars come from, and is this part of an epic end of year push?

 

[Christine69420]

It would be useless to know what kind of tires the car has considering the car has the ability to measure the exact amount of traction it has on any surface.

The challenge is that winter friction change all the time. You may be OK on a flat surface in the shadows. But if you detect slippery conditions on top of a sunny hill you want to go down then it might be too late to stop. If you know you have tires and it's potentially icy outside then you can park your car before you start sliding. This is the logic broke ass student me used when i could not afford winter tires back in the day.

If you have winter tires you look at the ice down that hill and if it's polished you might get in trouble - but if it's rough you'll be fine. And with studs the hill would probably be no problem. Finally if you still slide down on studs then let's hope your insurance is current FSD or not.

 

[st_lopes]

The FSD trial has nothing to do with motivating sales -- there are practically zero sales that could possibly occur today that would result in delivery before the end of the quarter! This is merely a motivator to improve FSD uptake. Has absolutely zero relevance to delivery numbers.

Does incentivize people that were procrastinating taking possession of their vehicles, but I agree that it serves a primary purpose of encouraging future FSD uptake.

 

[Nocturnal]

We all come with panel gaps. You just don't see them because we're always sitting on them.

*zero emissions joke*

The challenge is that winter friction change all the time. You may be OK on a flat surface in the shadows. But if you detect slippery conditions on top of a sunny hill you want to go down then it might be too late to stop. If you know you have tires and it's potentially icy outside then you can park your car before you start sliding. This is the logic broke ass student me used when i could not afford winter tires back in the day.

If you have winter tires you look at the ice down that hill and if it's polished you might get in trouble - but if it's rough you'll be fine. And with studs the hill would probably be no problem. Finally if you still slide down on studs then let's hope your insurance is current FSD or not.

That's also why I think only Tesla owned/maintained vehicles might be allowed to operate in iffy weather. My all seasons are due to be replaced, but my replacement wheels/tires are backordered so I have to make due for another couple weeks.

 

[st_lopes]

Hmm, could Tesla claim 100% take rate on their financials and assume that FSD will be public by the time the free trial ends?

Not sure there is anything for Tesla to recognize on this freebie. They aren't being paid for it. It's not deferred revenue. No actual impact to financials as there is no incremental cost to provide the service.

 

[st_lopes]

A weird thing has happened in Norway. A bunch of old Model S have showed up in inventory with an extremely low milage. I count 17 cars now with less than 1000km on the odo, and you can double that if you bump it up to 2k km.
Where do these cars come from, and is this part of an epic end of year push?
View attachment 622435

Showroom models?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

When FSD subscription is available I wouldn’t be surprised if all new deliveries get 3 months free. That could improve the take rate significantly.

 

[chiller]

Showroom models?

I don't think any showrooms in Norway have had 2015 and 2016 models since 2017. Also we don't have that many showrooms.

 

[elasalle]

O.K -- 700 ... I see you now

 

[Cosmacelf]

The challenge is that winter friction change all the time. You may be OK on a flat surface in the shadows. But if you detect slippery conditions on top of a sunny hill you want to go down then it might be too late to stop. If you know you have tires and it's potentially icy outside then you can park your car before you start sliding. This is the logic broke ass student me used when i could not afford winter tires back in the day.

OT, isn’t it amazing what we used to do as broke students? I had a manual transmission car with a dead battery, so I’d always look for a downhill parking spot to park it so that I could pop the clutch to start it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Seems to be some sustained buying interest this morning. No doubt a combination of End-of-Year 'window dressing' by S&P Benchmarked funds, and speculation about the 2020 Q4 P&D Report, which will very likely be out before trading resumes on Mon, Jan 4, 2021.

Can't imagine even the shortzes have much enthusiasm for selling TSLA right now...

Cheers!

 

[bkp_duke]

A weird thing has happened in Norway. A bunch of old Model S have showed up in inventory with an extremely low milage. I count 17 cars now with less than 1000km on the odo, and you can double that if you bump it up to 2k km.
Where do these cars come from, and is this part of an epic end of year push?
View attachment 622435

Demo / service cars?

 

[Mike Smith]

The active S&P benchmarked funds must be getting very nervous this close to the inclusion price. Good P/D numbers could be really bad news - better play it safe and buy now! Also get the added bonus of window dressing, and still get a slight advantage on the index here.

 

[S3XY]

A weird thing has happened in Norway. A bunch of old Model S have showed up in inventory with an extremely low milage. I count 17 cars now with less than 1000km on the odo, and you can double that if you bump it up to 2k km.
Where do these cars come from, and is this part of an epic end of year push?
View attachment 622435

Maybe clearing out the old inventory before the refreshed models start appearing?