Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jw934]

There will ALWAYS be conditions where vehicles should not be on the road, with a driver or without.

True. I used to work in Montreal and the streets can get encrusted with a layer of ice..

https://twitter.com/Mizuru007/status/1339243075042873345?s=20

The right action for FDS to take is to refuse to move, or even better, back up the hill before sliding down.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Fact Checking is doing a breakdown of the new 4680 cell line video https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1344292842450116609?s=21

 

[UkNorthampton]

See: Tesla Model 3 op kenteken
I couldn't find any info on what variant E6R stands for, but maybe that would be the SR+ then...?
View attachment 622403

eu-evs does daily updates for 3 countries. These are small countries / small 'luxury' EV markets (Spain). UK, Germany are much bigger.

UK figures come out around 5th Jan, not sure about Germany.

• Spain, few Tesla sales, some SR+MIC
• Norway - all LRAWD + performance, no SR+ of any kind (site says)
• Netherlands - large number of SR+RWDMIC earlier in December

Total yearly sales in Norway, below. Close run between etron, ID3 & M3 in that order. December - Tesla M3 registered most. Unclear if sales or dealer registrations for each country, so with hundreds of dealers having 1-3 each - that would decrease legacy sales.

 

[Runarbt]

The FSD trial has nothing to do with motivating sales -- there are practically zero sales that could possibly occur today that would result in delivery before the end of the quarter! This is merely a motivator to improve FSD uptake. Has absolutely zero relevance to delivery numbers.

Yes, is my take on this also.

Elon is prepping the ground for wide FSD Beta and/or FSD subscription release.

This is free advertising. Doesnt cost Tesla a dime, but valuable when FSD subscription is released.

You can be 100% certain subscription is out before this 3month trial ends.

 

[Christine69420]

True. I used to work in Montreal and the streets can get encrusted with a layer of ice..

https://twitter.com/Mizuru007/status/1339243075042873345?s=20

The right action for FDS to take is to refuse to move, or even better, back up the hill before sliding down.

True - in some situations the FSD should just stop. But it should also know what kind of tires you have on the car. Summer tires are not suitable for snow. But with proper winter tires the situation improve a lot. And perhaps I have studded winter tires on mine. And others may put on snow chains.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Dodger, how would someone use the Upper BB value in a trade decision? Thanks in advance.

I don't give trading advice, but there's lot's of free opinions out there.

Bollinger Bands [ChartSchool]

 

[ammulder]

The FSD trial has nothing to do with motivating sales -- there are practically zero sales that could possibly occur today that would result in delivery before the end of the quarter! This is merely a motivator to improve FSD uptake. Has absolutely zero relevance to delivery numbers.

Not sure about your area, but there are vehicles in stock in the Philly/New York area. I expect you could visit a service center today or tomorrow and buy one.

 

[Zaxxon]

The FSD trial has nothing to do with motivating sales -- there are practically zero sales that could possibly occur today that would result in delivery before the end of the quarter! This is merely a motivator to improve FSD uptake. Has absolutely zero relevance to delivery numbers.

This is incorrect. There are dozens of inventory Teslas available just in Denver. And yes, they can be purchased by EoD tomorrow.

 

[scaesare]

Elon doesn’t hate LIDAR. He’s said as much and that SpaceX uses it for docking.

He just doesn’t think it’s necessary for automotive FSD. Horses for courses as it were.

My guess is that it probably is LIDAR and they are using it for reference in calibration, evaluation and tuning in research vehicles and data sets. I doubt there’s any chance it is something needed in production vehicles.

edit: It’s for ground truthiness, others beat me to it.

I agree with the several posts posts that it's likely for test/validation of the vision FSD system.

However, that being said, I fully expect Tesla to test every new sensor hitting production (or with a high likelihood of doing so) to put it through it's paces. Especially ones that have made significant cost/scale/capability advancements.

Just like I assume they are testing every viable battery tech out there.

So seeing a Frankentesla all wired up just gives me the confidence that Elon's opinion is an informed one when he talks about engineering decisions...

 

[StealthP3D]

The FSD trial has nothing to do with motivating sales -- there are practically zero sales that could possibly occur today that would result in delivery before the end of the quarter! This is merely a motivator to improve FSD uptake. Has absolutely zero relevance to delivery numbers.

To me, this points to blowout Q4 sales. Just a hunch but I take it to be sandbagging by Elon to burn the naysayers. He's acting like it's going to be close to the 500K number. Watch and see. I think even the pro-Tesla analysts are missing this one.

 

[scaesare]

I've got a hunch casting and a structural battery pack might help with panel gaps, a car can start out with a strong core that is identical within very fine tolerances, so something has to go wrong for panel gaps to be a problem and fewer steps mean less chance of something going wrong. Any major issue in a particular area of the build may be a candidate for more casting.

While more frame/structure rigidity can't hurt, my understanding of panel gap issues is that they typically have much more to do with the variability of the panels themselves, rather than the frame they are attached to. Panels are stamped and formed from thin sheets, and there can be many factors that induce variations: stamping spring back, stamping pressure, tooling wear, temperatures, pressure selection, alloy variability, etc...

On the other hand I expect a frame welded together from extrusions/stampings to be pretty tight in terms of tolerance, cooperatively speaking.

 

[jerry33]

tl:dr It is insane to think that other systems needs LIDAR's to even just understand what part of the road they are driving on, They should not be allowed to be make decisions on unique situations.

The advantage of LIDAR is that it is much quicker to get a demo up and running. Scaling and long term viability are LIDAR's downfall. (long term viability in this instance means the roads change--even if only for a short time during construction).

 

[scaesare]

The FSD trial has nothing to do with motivating sales -- there are practically zero sales that could possibly occur today that would result in delivery before the end of the quarter! This is merely a motivator to improve FSD uptake. Has absolutely zero relevance to delivery numbers.

I think the real issue may be delivery. This encourages folks who have already purchased (or are far enough along in the process), to complete their delivery prior to 12/31, rather than deferring. That way they can be included in the Q4 #'s.

Also it encourages anybody on the fence about buying an inventory car to do it...which could be done within a day.

 

[phantasms]

To me, this points to blowout Q4 sales. Just a hunch but I take it to be sandbagging by Elon to burn the naysayers. He's acting like it's going to be close to the 500K number. Watch and see. I think even the pro-Tesla analysts are missing this one.

Agreed. The local Tesla store has a whole new setup with lines of new cars every day. You can’t even enter the parking lot. Never been like that before. I know 2 people who got Model Ys in the past week. I was driving to my kids school and half the cars I saw were 3s and Ys. These were fun back roads not a major town, but still.

 

[ZeApelido]

@FactChecking goes deep into new Tesla cell production line videos

https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1344292842450116609?s=20

 

[mongo]

The FSD trial has nothing to do with motivating sales -- there are practically zero sales that could possibly occur today that would result in delivery before the end of the quarter! This is merely a motivator to improve FSD uptake. Has absolutely zero relevance to delivery numbers.

Tesla only counts a car as sold once it is delivered. Enticing people to not delay pickup of their vehicles into 2021 will improve the sales numbers.
Did you mean new orders that could still get delivered this year?

 

[jbcarioca]

Tesla in India?

Electrified - hour ago:

This Electrified piece was quite good, in my view. It did leave out specific mention of the Indian BEV's now in production:
Mahindra Electric- Explore range of electric cars in India
Tata Nexon EV - India's Own Electric Compact SUV Powered by Ziptron
Of particular interest is the Tata subscription plan.
In earlier posts on Tesla opportunities in India I did not discuss about the existing production and existing developments.
Mahindra has concentrated on TukTuk and small commercial vehicles mostly, but several others are doing that too. In that respect India is beginning to resemble quite a bit of China early development.
The large questions is how well Tesla can do when they are beginning at very much high end for India. Clearly there expectations initially are modest. The question is really what comes next. I do not expect a GF anytime soon but certainly some type of factory will appear within a year or two. Once they understand how to succeed in India I share an optimism about the future. However...just remember all those who've come before. It is not easy!

Note: I am a cynic about India, partly because my first financial industry line job was doing a workout on a sizable India/Iran/UAE scam that nearly broke the bank I worked for. There is nothing quite like a bad debt workout to lead to understanding the seamier side of life.
Of course my introduction to that subject was in New York with salad oil, real estate and airline deals. Those made me a trifle cynical about some politicians too.

Elon faces quite serious obstacles in India, but I wager that he and several senior executives are very well equipped to understanding how to avoid fraudsters. That is a delicate dance.

 

[S3XY]

I must admit I have never had any friends with panel gaps... maybe between their front teeth but I never looked at their panels... ;-)

We all come with panel gaps. You just don't see them because we're always sitting on them.

 

[JusRelax]

Has anyone mentioned that March 2023 LEAPS are now available for our purchasing pleasure?

 

[MABMAB]

Agreed. The local Tesla store has a whole new setup with lines of new cars every day. You can’t even enter the parking lot. Never been like that before. I know 2 people who got Model Ys in the past week. I was driving to my kids school and half the cars I saw were 3s and Ys. These were fun back roads not a major town, but still.

Me thinks TSLA manages sales. End of quarter manufacturing is for US as easier to get in hands of consumer.