Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

It does seem possible that Tesla soon will be breaking ground on a second gigafactory building. This would be a bit off-cadence, if the cadence is every year.

I expect Phase 2 at Austin to be around 1 year behind Phase 1, maybe a bit less.
Phase 2 can be an improved version of Phase 1, most car making needs stamping, casting, paint and GA.

A recent trend is contractor trailers moving from the East closer to the site, a good option is phase 2 in the area where the trailers have been moved from. Trailers don't have to move again for Phase 2 and are between both sites, other gear can be left on site for Phase 2 when that makes sense.

Phase 2 might include more site rain water management, especially if earthworks are done in times of more seasonal rainfall.
Rain on the site has slowed down Phase 1, for Phase 2 they have time to consider that risk and develop a strategy.

 

[MC3OZ]

Well Model S and X has the same surface area for structural/battery pack. The Roadster is much shorter than the Model S, it's even smaller than the Model 3 at 4200mm vs 4700mm

Rivian had had a 2 layer pack of 2170 cells.. so 2 layers are one option for the Roadster.
Another option is single layer 4680s, I'm not sure that would result in a big enough battery.

Ideally (if it was possible), Model S/X and Roadster would use the same front and rear castings, the Roadster structural pack would be shorter in length. That only works if the Roadster is the same width as Model S/X.

 

[dano-oly]

Woohoo. Add I would rather be a little under. And I'm willing to bet that will double in the next 3 years. (Just another guess).

What is your guess about the stock price next week?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

What is your guess about the stock price next week?

Next weeks close 842.55...give or take 200 bucks. Mark it in your calendar.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If it's true (Model S and Model X share the same final production line) that only means one thing, Roadster and Plaid Model S will share the other line. They will both use the same batteries (4680) and pack dimensions should be the same. I expect first delivery of Plaid Model S and Roadster to be in April. Just an educated guess on my part.

Lol, or ALL three share the same line. Much more compact, and more likely since Roadster and Plaid S will have mostly common running gear (per Elon in 2020).

I expect the S2/120 wll be a software detuned version of Plaid, which will also have larger wheels, tires, and brakes. Kinda exactly the differences between AWD LR Model 3 and M3P.

Next weeks close 842.55...give or take 200 bucks. Mark it in your calendar.

Check yer maths. That's $841.38

Cheers!

 

[TSLA Pilot]

*I* haven’t missed anything. The whole point of my post was that the market often does not react as logic would lead you to believe.

Or, perhaps, the market has a different angle on what you see as a negative, and viceversa?

Regardless, I do concur that in the short-term the market may not be rational. That's why I buy TSLA whenever there's a "sale."

 

[elasalle]

Excellent added point which I had overlooked. Thanks.

Some may wonder why TSLA experienced this manipulation today, while other stocks not so much. TSLA options appear to be a favorite among newbie traders, who think options are an inexpensive way to riches. They probably think the same about the big lotteries. Eventually they'll learn. Meanwhile, the pros take advantage of them.

By the way, I know the game. During the nineties I daily visited the CBOE to interview market makers for TV, and ate lunch with them in their private lounge. They're the ones who make money with options. Rarely so for retail traders, and almost never for the long run. It's those of us retail investors who buy and hold stock shares for the long run that virtually always come out way on top.

I do both, buy the Shares and Sell the Options (CC ) . Game On. cheers!!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I expect Phase 2 at Austin to be around 1 year behind Phase 1, maybe a bit less.
Phase 2 can be an improved version of Phase 1, most car making needs stamping, casting, paint and GA.

Which product are you expecting for Phase 2? As far as we know, the next product planned is Cybertruck. This won't require stamping or a large paint shop, and its possible that modular castings for batteries will be shared with Semi.

That's the other production line they'd really like to get running ASAP. Big margins and a huge market just waiting to be tapped. It's all about the batteries.

Indeed, we need to pay special attention for any sign of a battery cell plant beginning construction in Austin. They'll need it for Model Y too, I think.

 

[gabeincal]

Some new stills from Fremont. Could not even find the test cars today that were visible in my previous videos. Will keep on visiting...

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla Daily - 20 minutes ago:

 

[MC3OZ]

Which product are you expecting for Phase 2? As far as we know, the next product planned is Cybertruck. This won't require stamping or a large paint shop, and its possible that modular castings for batteries will be shared with Semi.

That's the other production line they'd really like to get running ASAP. Big margins and a huge market just waiting to be tapped. It's all about the batteries.

Indeed, we need to pay special attention for any sign of a battery cell plant beginning construction in Austin. They'll need it for Model Y too, I think.

I'm 50/50 on whether Cybertruck can be built in some part of Phase 1, I think Phase 1 is mostly Model 3/Y.

Phase 2 is Model 3 if Phase 1 is Model Y only, or otherwise Model 2, it is slightly ambitious building the factory before the design is final, but not a problem if you mostly know what the build process will entail.

My reasoning in accelerating Phase 2 is for Robo-taxi construction, which will be mainly Model 3/2.
A dedicated plant churning out Robo-taxis means cars made in all other plants are mostly sold to the public.

If Cybertruck isn't in Phase 1, it might be Phase 2 or part of phase 2.

What we have seen in phase 1 is the stamping foundations take a long time, if Phase 2 doesn't need stamping or paint, it should be a quicker build.

 

[agastya]

Off topic a bit and not shilling, but there's a site called futureme where you can write emails to be delivered to you on a specific day in the future.

I was just reminded by past me of this glorious tweet on it's anniversary...

https://twitter.com/llsethj/status/1217198837212884993?s=19

No wonder Electrec are often salty in their articles

 

[StealthP3D]

Today was the deadline for the 100 million security deposit for Giga Berlin and Tesla stil has not paid. Deadline was extended by another 5 days. Not a good look on Tesla IMHO. Google Translate

In more interesting news, Tesla has finally made an application for cell production at Giga Berlin!
I was too quick, the application is only for a huge warehouse which is expected to be used for cell production eventually:
Google Translate
This might be a trick to get around environmentalists´concerns about water, hope theses tactics don´t backfire in the end.

This second article also has more details on the security deposit issue:

I don't think this is a "bad look" for the company. As a shareholder, I want Tesla to use caution before unnecessarily doling out large sums of money they might not be able to get back. It sounds like they are delaying until they have enough clarity on the situation that they feel it's worth the risk of going ahead. That's just wise management of company funds (which are basically owned by us shareholders).

Additionally, it shows who is really in charge of the economic benefit Tesla will bring to the area. Tesla is demonstrating they are not an overly-enthusiastic "patsy" to be taken advantage of by whatever local officials might have the power to dick them around. Look before you leap. I'm sure there is a lot going on that doesn't get reported.

 

[EVCollies]

I'm 50/50 on whether Cybertruck can be built in some part of Phase 1, I think Phase 1 is mostly Model 3/Y.

Phase 2 is Model 3 if Phase 1 is Model Y only, or otherwise Model 2, it is slightly ambitious building the factory before the design is final, but not a problem if you mostly know what the build process will entail.

My reasoning in accelerating Phase 2 is for Robo-taxi construction, which will be mainly Model 3/2.
A dedicated plant churning out Robo-taxis means cars made in all other plants are mostly sold to the public.

If Cybertruck isn't in Phase 1, it might be Phase 2 or part of phase 2.

What we have seen in phase 1 is the stamping foundations take a long time, if Phase 2 doesn't need stamping or paint, it should be a quicker build.

I hope you are wrong. I WANT MY CYBERTRUCK!

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm 50/50 on whether Cybertruck can be built in some part of Phase 1, I think Phase 1 is mostly Model 3/Y.

Phase 2 is Model 3 if Phase 1 is Model Y only, or otherwise Model 2, it is slightly ambitious building the factory before the design is final, but not a problem if you mostly know what the build process will entail.

My reasoning in accelerating Phase 2 is for Robo-taxi construction, which will be mainly Model 3/2.
A dedicated plant churning out Robo-taxis means cars made in all other plants are mostly sold to the public.

If Cybertruck isn't in Phase 1, it might be Phase 2 or part of phase 2.

What we have seen in phase 1 is the stamping foundations take a long time, if Phase 2 doesn't need stamping or paint, it should be a quicker build.

If the CT isn’t a priority for Austin that’s a miss IMO. I’m betting it will be higher margin than the Y and demand is off the charts.

 

[Singuy]

I'm 50/50 on whether Cybertruck can be built in some part of Phase 1, I think Phase 1 is mostly Model 3/Y.

Phase 2 is Model 3 if Phase 1 is Model Y only, or otherwise Model 2, it is slightly ambitious building the factory before the design is final, but not a problem if you mostly know what the build process will entail.

My reasoning in accelerating Phase 2 is for Robo-taxi construction, which will be mainly Model 3/2.
A dedicated plant churning out Robo-taxis means cars made in all other plants are mostly sold to the public.

If Cybertruck isn't in Phase 1, it might be Phase 2 or part of phase 2.

What we have seen in phase 1 is the stamping foundations take a long time, if Phase 2 doesn't need stamping or paint, it should be a quicker build.

I am pretty certain Cybertruck and Semi are priority as this is suppose to be coming to market to take away Rivian and Ford's thunder. Also it's a way for Elon to show people that Tesla's execution is on point. They can announce a prototype and have it in customer's hands before their competitors. That bad after taste from being the company that's always late motivates him to now be an execution machine. Just a small dash of this and boom, we are at over 800 billion dollars valuation.

 

[generalenthu]

The margins are high and demand is hard to satisfy for Y generally, and especially if Biden announces any kind of EV incentive.

And Tesla has experience ramping the Y in Fremont and then in China. By Elon's own admission, building the cybertruck is tricky, and it wouldn't be the most optimal use of capital to build a huge factory before figuring out the production and scaling issues.

The above leaves me pretty confident that Austin will start with Y and slowly the cybertruck will start along side and eventually become as big or bigger than Y in unit volume

 

[MC3OZ]

If the CT isn’t a priority for Austin that’s a miss IMO. I’m betting it will be higher margin than the Y and demand is off the charts.

Sorry I don't think I got the point across well here, CT is almost certainly the priority...

There is a good chance it is included in phase 1, if not it is phase 2 or phase 2A.

My comments where in the context of accelerating development, considering the stamping foundations take a lot of time to build. I know minimal stamping is need for CT.... if it more about what comes next.

 

[Nocturnal]

I am pretty certain Cybertruck and Semi are priority as this is suppose to be coming to market to take away Rivian and Ford's thunder. Also it's a way for Elon to show people that Tesla's execution is on point. They can announce a prototype and have it in customer's hands before their competitors. That bad after taste from being the company that's always late motivates him to now be an execution machine. Just a small dash of this and boom, we are at over 800 billion dollars valuation.

I think getting into those segments sooner rather than later will take some wind out of the competitor's sales.

 

[2daMoon]

Too many cooks in the kitchen? A recipe for disaster?

Toyota receives $180M fine for allegedly violating EPA Clean Air Act requirements