Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bet TSLA]

I think getting into those segments sooner rather than later will take some wind out of the competitor's sales.

Tesla has no interest in taking any wind out of their (not actually) competitors' sails. That would go against the mission. Tesla can't possibly supply all the EV buyers out there.

 

[woodisgood]

Tesla has no interest in taking any wind out of their (not actually) competitors' sails. That would go against the mission. Tesla can't possibly supply all the EV buyers out there.

Correct. Tesla has an interest in making them try harder and do better.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Off topic a bit and not shilling, but there's a site called futureme where you can write emails to be delivered to you on a specific day in the future.

I want a site that can email the past me to buy more TSLA

 

[FreqFlyer]

If it's true (Model S and Model X share the same final production line) that only means one thing, Roadster and Plaid Model S will share the other line. They will both use the same batteries (4680) and pack dimensions should be the same. I expect first delivery of Plaid Model S and Roadster to be in April. Just an educated guess on my part.

I have always stated the Plaid may be a four door Roadster.

 

[JustMe]

I want a site that can email the past me to buy more TSLA

Well, today is tomorrow’s yesterday

 

[woof]

My understanding. But that beckons the question that after building cars in Fremont for 8+ years, WTF is going on there that they cannot fix properly in terms of fit an finish?

I believe that would be the curse GM put on the site just before transferring the deed.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

This is why I think cells don't necessarily need to be tab-less to be in a structural pack:-
Rivian says its battery pack has the highest volumetric energy density in the world, thanks to its cooling strategy - Charged EVs



My other thought is that metals conduct heat fairly efficiently, the contact point for cooling might not matter. Within the pack they want to prevent heat transfer between cells as far as possible, maybe air is sufficient insulation provide only a minimal area of each cell is in contact with adjacent cells.


I also think tab-less 18650 and 2170 will not be a big deal, provided the technology is licensed from Tesla.

For existing lines there are 2 options:-

1. Covert existing 18650 / 2170 lines to tab-less.
2. Covert existing 18650 / 2170 lines to tab-less 4680.

I don't know which of these options requires more time / money.

My best guess is regular Model S/X might have a structural 18650 pack, and Plaid Models might have a structural 4680 pack.

In terms of the immediate Model S/X refresh, we determined yesterday that swapping molds to produce front/rear castings for Model S/X with a structural pack might be difficult.

So one possibility is that Model S/X are built with a 1 or 2 piece rear casting only as per Model Y.
In that case, if an end-cooled 18650 pack was built, it would not initially be used as a structural pack.
Plaid Model S requires new casting machines, and then all Model S/X go could to structural packs at that time. The downside there is that is another significant production change

Sorry, but Rivian's cooling solution doesn't gel with 18650/2170's being in a structural pack.

A structural pack is where the cells themselves are part of the structure of the battery pack. See Sandy Munro's mockup for a representation/explanation of this idea: Sandy Munro Dives Back Into His Tesla 4680 Cell Battery Pack

Stacking 2 layers of cells on top of each other, with a cooling plate in between, would be the epitome of non-structural as there would be nothing to support the shear load across cells (unless you unnecessarily double-up the thickness of cooling plates as well just to handle shear and flexing stresses).

Tab-less 18650 and 2170 is technically possible, but economically unrealistic. The savings from using cooling plates instead of cooling ducts is completely offset by the additional per-cell costs of making them tabless. Remember, that the 4680's need 1/5th of the cells from an 2170 pack (even less compared to an 18650 pack), so those extra pennies add up real quick.

As for a refreshed Model S/X, I'd agree with your idea that it could have either 18650's or 4680's - probably by re-shaping the 18650 modules to fit into the same space that a 4680 structural pack would go into.

 

[BabyBull]

Weekend stuff. I was comparing returns from march bottom and found this surprising. This is for people who say Tesla has grown too fast in one year!!

 

[AZRI11]

Well Model S and X has the same surface area for structural/battery pack. The Roadster is much shorter than the Model S, it's even smaller than the Model 3 at 4200mm vs 4700mm

Roadster will have the same width as Model S (about 78 inches) 620 miles of range when adding the weight of plaid S would make approx 500 miles of range. Bigger front and rear castings for plaid Model S and smaller for Roadster. Same pack structure will fit both vehicles.

 

[RobStark]

If Model X were made in the early 1960s

Check Out What 7 EVs would Look Like If They Were Designed In The 1960s

It would still be about 20 years ahead of its time and look like an early 80s car

 

[CorneliusXX]

I'm 50/50 on whether Cybertruck can be built in some part of Phase 1, I think Phase 1 is mostly Model 3/Y.

Phase 2 is Model 3 if Phase 1 is Model Y only, or otherwise Model 2, it is slightly ambitious building the factory before the design is final, but not a problem if you mostly know what the build process will entail.

My reasoning in accelerating Phase 2 is for Robo-taxi construction, which will be mainly Model 3/2.
A dedicated plant churning out Robo-taxis means cars made in all other plants are mostly sold to the public.

If Cybertruck isn't in Phase 1, it might be Phase 2 or part of phase 2.

What we have seen in phase 1 is the stamping foundations take a long time, if Phase 2 doesn't need stamping or paint, it should be a quicker build.

Are you considering the current construction to be Phases 1&2?

The eastern (RHS) building will produce MY. The construction already shows casting, stamping, paint and room for BiW - so that would be comparable to what we are seeing in Berlin and Phase 1 or 2 of Shanghai.

The western side is, IMO, probably for cybertruck. The current construction has shown no indication for stamping or paint - it looks more like just a big shed with no areas that look particularly unique so far. It's comparably narrow with loading docs all the way down the side - which would make sense for cybertruck - steel comes in one end and gets shaped - then parts from the loading docs get added as it moves down the line.

I can't see the western side being used for M3 or Semi as we should see a paint shop being installed - if it's not cybertruck it could be for powerelectronics, cells or seats+warehousing - but if that was the case it would be a deviation from Shanghai and Berlin where there are separate smaller buildings for these sorts of items.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I don't think this is a "bad look" for the company. As a shareholder, I want Tesla to use caution before unnecessarily doling out large sums of money they might not be able to get back. It sounds like they are delaying until they have enough clarity on the situation that they feel it's worth the risk of going ahead. That's just wise management of company funds (which are basically owned by us shareholders).

Additionally, it shows who is really in charge of the economic benefit Tesla will bring to the area. Tesla is demonstrating they are not an overly-enthusiastic "patsy" to be taken advantage of by whatever local officials might have the power to dick them around. Look before you leap. I'm sure there is a lot going on that doesn't get reported.

Elon: Making vehicles profitable is a game of pennies

Not Elon: I'll low fly over Brandenburg city hall and push $100m out the window - send me a receipt in due course.

 

[kanweg]

Elon: Making vehicles profitable is a game of pennies

Not Elon: I'll low fly over Brandenburg city hall and push $100m out the window - send me a receipt in due course.

In case people don’t know, the 100 M is not a payment. It is a guarantee. A bank guarantee is fine as well.
In Europe people typically like partners to keep there word. Corporations acting like there is no need for them to do that, especially if they are big. Such behavior can easily lead to resentment among the general public, which is not good for the environment (there is a mission), sales and shareholders.

 

[MC3OZ]

Are you considering the current construction to be Phases 1&2?

The eastern (RHS) building will produce MY. The construction already shows casting, stamping, paint and room for BiW - so that would be comparable to what we are seeing in Berlin and Phase 1 or 2 of Shanghai.

The western side is, IMO, probably for cybertruck. The current construction has shown no indication for stamping or paint - it looks more like just a big shed with no areas that look particularly unique so far. It's comparably narrow with loading docs all the way down the side - which would make sense for cybertruck - steel comes in one end and gets shaped - then parts from the loading docs get added as it moves down the line.

I can't see the western side being used for M3 or Semi as we should see a paint shop being installed - if it's not cybertruck it could be for powerelectronics, cells or seats+warehousing - but if that was the case it would be a deviation from Shanghai and Berlin where there are separate smaller buildings for these sorts of items.

I consider the current construction phase 1, it is massive.

One the middle of the western side is apparently GA,,, but I think maybe GA for both Model Y and Cybertruck. (separate lines)
Southwest area where they are currently doing geo-pier may be where they may build Cybertruck...
it is more likely than not that Cybertruck is part of phase 1,,, Model Y buildings are mostly being progressed first or are known about in more detail.

My phase 2 speculation was triggered by a diagram showing multiple factories the size of phase 1 could be built on the site...
Provided they can source the workforce, multiple factories on the same site makes sense, and I have always had a hunch phase 2 would quickly follow after phase 1.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I consider the current construction phase 1, it is massive.

One the middle of the western side is apparently GA,,, but I think maybe GA for both Model Y and Cybertruck. (separate lines)
Southwest area where they are currently doing geo-pier may be where they may build Cybertruck...
it is more likely than not that Cybertruck is part of phase 1,,, Model Y buildings are mostly being progressed first or are known about in more detail.

My phase 2 speculation was triggered by a diagram showing multiple factories the size of phase 1 could be built on the site...
Provided they can source the workforce, multiple factories on the same site makes sense, and I have always had a hunch phase 2 would quickly follow after phase 1.

I doubt the western side would include GA for Model Y, but only because all Tesla built factories to date have the entire production process in the same building (as opposed to Fremont where they had to fit Tesla lines into an existing building). I'd expect Model Y GA to be incorporated in the eastern side building. BiW apparently takes up significantly less floorspace where they have moved to megacasting - which should leave plenty of room for GA.

 

[Compton]

 

[FS_FRA]

*cough* new world headquarters *cough*
*cough* new design center *cough*

No kidding, Musk is not happy with California and intends to slowly but steadily reduce presence in the state.

Considering one of the suggested origins of the Tesla logo is this, I think that would make a kick-ass design for the new Tesla world HQ (in Austin?), and a serious OG mic-drop to Tim Apple...

 

[MC3OZ]

I doubt the western side would include GA for Model Y, but only because all Tesla built factories to date have the entire production process in the same building (as opposed to Fremont where they had to fit Tesla lines into an existing building). I'd expect Model Y GA to be incorporated in the eastern side building. BiW apparently takes up significantly less floorspace where they have moved to megacasting - which should leave plenty of room for GA.

I am repeating the claims of the drone pilots, they simply call it GA.
I doubt that they have the full picture.

The area they call GA on the western side stretches a long way with many loading docks.

If we get loading docks on the east side that might be Model Y GA. My original assumption matches yours, the maps the drome pilots put up have GA on the western side.

 

[FS_FRA]

Elon could pay this with his pocket change, something else must be going on.

He's trying to pay for it with his Centurion card (for points).... problem is the local state is expecting a wire transfer...you know Germans don't like credit cards so much.

Edit: I see the payment has gone through, probably in the form of a bank guarantee.

 

[MC3OZ]

Another consideration is with castings and a structural pack, the process flow might be different. The structural pack being married to the castings before the regular body shop process.

If that was the case I imagine at Austin, that marriage would happen south of the castings area, but before the body shop zipper.

I am not sure if that impacts on Model Y GA being on the east side.