Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[c041v]

Still supporting the flow of money.

I am hugely intrigued at how this has played out. Agreed that it is perhaps not the most deserving crowd, but with these meme stocks, it's a rare confluence of events where the only barrier to entry appears to be an unlimited appetite for risk.

It's actually pretty weird to see TSLA so... boring lately*. Nice for the nerves though.

*Tomorrow should be fun....

 

[Johan]

I am hugely intrigued at how this has played out. Agreed that it is perhaps not the most deserving crowd, but with these meme stocks, it's a rare confluence of events where the only barrier to entry appears to be an unlimited appetite for risk.

It's actually pretty weird to see TSLA so... boring lately*. Nice for the nerves though.

*Tomorrow should be fun....

A boy can dream; The people who squeezed GME to the moon take profits in an orderly fashion during trading tomorrow thus bleeding the shorts dry, then are hungry to reinvest all those gains so they come home to papa Musk and TSLA after great guidance and a few nice surprises during the ER.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Mod pondering whether to say something about GME taking over this thread...

Well, here goes: we do have a dedicated thread already, let’s continue in GME stock and shortsellers (out of main)

 

[MC3OZ]

Most of us seem to be completely missing the point about what the IRDA Gigapreses will be able to do with the Grohmann touch added. Hints do exist:
"Jerome added a note, with great emphasis, that the Tesla Grohmann equipment has created much better machines, dramatically improving the overall manufacturing efficiency of the Model 3. He also said they are building a giant machine using Tesla’s Grohmann sub-division, something he was clearly eager to share but couldn’t yet talk much about. Hmm. He basically just emphasized that it was a “giant, giant, giant machine” that duplicates everything, is modular, is simple on the modular level, and … is gigantic. We’ll all have to wait a bit longer for more information on that."
Our Interview With Tesla President Jerome Guillen, Part Deux

Please appreciate that that interview was in 2019.Next, if one wants to have ones mind truly blown check out the Tesla patent applications. I won't link it, but just think that is figures out a way to operate three or four of those gigantic IRDA machines together! That means that they are trying to cast what looks to be an entire BIW in a single piece. Impossible, sure but the:

GIGA PRESS

...were thought to be impossible too. Tesla succeeded in part because of proprietary alloys that could be stable enough for the machine. So far that is what is happening in Fremont and Shanghai.

Next there will be unprecedented joint operation of multiple presses, perhaps in Brandenburg and Austin. Elon has stated that Berlin could have a difficult ramp for the Model Y because of unprecedented new technologies. He also has said they're trying to build cars "like the toy cars are built". FWIW toy cars are mostly cast in a single piece.

Whatever actually happens all this is a massive effort to make vehicle production far cheaper when production volume is high. The obvious conclusion is that vehicles designed in China and Germany will use these technologies.

The implications of this are a production cost reduction on the order of 20-30%. Then there is the vastly higher stiffness and much less defect.

This, by itself, suggests we've seen nothing yet that is so consequential except, perhaps FSD or 4680's. I think it will be worth at least US$1,000 per share. I think we'll see the whole thing operating within three years, perhaps earlier. In the meantime each iteration is already paying for itself very quickly.

From what I have seen of the Austin and Berlin construction so far casting machines are in rows, with overhead bridge cranes.
My understanding of the patent was that casting machines would need to be at right angles?
The patent and Jerome's comments do imply what you stated, but perhaps that is a future development, not Berlin phase 1,

Berlin has 8 Gigapresses, previously I was using a Wikipedia run rate of 90 seconds per cycle.
However, recent live video at Fremont shows a 3 minute cycle, there are 3 possibilities:-

1. Wikipedia was just plain wrong.
2. As machines get bigger cycle-time increases
3. Fremont was not cranked up to max speed.

My first question on Berlin was:- Are they doing 2 or 4 castings per car?

IMO using 4 machines to produce 4 castings, which are then joined, gains most of the benefits of using 4 machines to produce a single cast body.

My solution would be 2 new castings:-

• front top - including A-Pillar and roof rail, looping back to B-Pillar
• rear top - including C-Pillar and roof rail, looping forward to B-Pillar

Add a structure to link B-Pillar to the structural pack, add on stamped side body panel, that is essentially the car body built.

With 8 casting machines, 4 castings per car and a 3 minute cycle time that is around 1,000 car bodies per day.

Casting probably determines the run rate regardless of any downstream processes.

Using 4 machines to cast the while body is the same run rate 1,000 bodies per day, but a single machine needing maintenance halves the run rate. Using 4 castings per car and bridge cranes, they can juggle around molds to keep the run rate up, especially if they have a stockpile of already cast sections..

We will have to see what pans out, I agree a single whole body casting at Berlin is possible, a body made from 4 joined castings is also possible,

 

[Drumheller]

ARK Invest report appears to be out.

Big Ideas 2021: Innovation Research by ARK Invest

 

[larmor]

fa

From what I have seen of the Austin and Berlin construction so far casting machines are in rows, with overhead bridge cranes.
My understanding of the patent was that casting machines would need to be at right angles?
The patent and Jerome's comments do imply what you stated, but perhaps that is a future development, not Berlin phase 1,

Berlin has 8 Gigapresses, previously I was using a Wikipedia run rate of 90 seconds per cycle.
However, recent live video at Fremont shows a 3 minute cycle, there are 3 possibilities:-

1. Wikipedia was just plain wrong.
2. As machines get bigger cycle-time increases
3. Fremont was not cranked up to max speed.

My first question on Berlin was:- Are they doing 2 or 4 castings per car?

IMO using 4 machines to produce 4 castings, which are then joined, gains most of the benefits of using 4 machines to produce a single cast body.

My solution would be 2 new castings:-

• front top - including A-Pillar and roof rail, looping back to B-Pillar
• rear top - including C-Pillar and roof rail, looping forward to B-Pillar

Add a structure to link B-Pillar to the structural pack, add on stamped side body panel, that is essentially the car body built.

With 8 casting machines, 4 castings per car and a 3 minute cycle time that is around 1,000 car bodies per day.

Casting probably determines the run rate regardless of any downstream processes.

Using 4 machines to cast the while body is the same run rate 1,000 bodies per day, but a single machine needing maintenance halves the run rate. Using 4 castings per car and bridge cranes, they can juggle around molds to keep the run rate up, especially if they have a stockpile of already cast sections..

We will have to see what pans out, I agree a single whole body casting at Berlin is possible, a body made from 4 joined castings is also possible,

Is Tesla making the casting machine or is it from another outside company or subsidiary?

 

[Nocturnal]

I wonder if the circus going on elsewhere has kept traders from running TSLA up. Might that mean earnings won’t be a sell the news? It’s nice to not be the punching bag on CNBC.

 

[Prunesquallor]

TSLA +0.3%

All-time closing high

I’m getting jaded and spoiled. I was disappointed in today’s performance and here it is an ATH!

 

[Silentk]

ARK Invest report appears to be out.

Big Ideas 2021: Innovation Research by ARK Invest

"Based on Wright’s Law, ARK forecasts that EV sales should increase roughly 20-fold from ~2.2 million in 2020 to 40 million units in 2025."

 

[CorneliusXX]

The shorting business is never gonna recover. No one will ever short any company with more than like 5% short interest.

It's mentioned that traders will have to assess "meme risk" now as part of their trading strategy.

 

[Prunesquallor]

VM already volunteered to take the gov EV cars task on for Biden
View attachment 630937

“We will also need the US Government to fund the buildout of VW service centers for the frequently required software upgrades. Danke.”

 

[MC3OZ]

fa

Is Tesla making the casting machine or is it from another outside company or subsidiary?

Gigapresses are from an Italian company IDRA.

The patent and Jeome's comments seems to imply using 4 of these Gigapresses to build a larger machine which could cast a whole vehicle body,

I'm questioning if what we have seen built at Berlin and Austin so far accommodates that larger machine, perhaps it does, it is hard to get an idea of scale. But joining 4 cast sections seems lower risk to me than attempting to cast the whole body in one piece.

 

[Johan]

“We will also need the US Government to fund the buildout of VW service centers for the frequently required software upgrades. Danke.”

"Also, there is the kveistion of ze charging infrastructure. A few tausend fast charger all over ze kontinent would be nice. Danke"

 

[Xepa777]

ARK Invest report appears to be out.

Big Ideas 2021: Innovation Research by ARK Invest

1. Deep Learning
   
   
2. The Re -Invention of the Data Center
   
   
3. Virtual Worlds
   
   
4. Digital Wallets
   
   
5. Bitcoin’s Fundamentals
   
   
6. Bitcoin: Preparing For Institutions
   
   
7. Electric Vehicles (EVs)
   
   
8. Automation
   
   
9. Autonomous Ride -Hailing
   
   
10. Delivery Drones
    
    
11. Orbital Aerospace
    
    
12. 3D Printing
    
    
13. Long Read Sequencing
    
    
14. Multi -Cancer Screening
    
    
15. Cell and Gene Therapy: Generation 2
    

 

[Mo City]

Gigapresses are from an Italian company IDRA.

The patent and Jeome's comments seems to imply using 4 of these Gigapresses to build a larger machine which could cast a whole vehicle body,

I'm questioning if what we have seen built at Berlin and Austin so far accommodates that larger machine, perhaps it does, it is hard to get an idea of scale. But joining 4 cast sections seems lower risk to me than attempting to cast the whole body in one piece.

Maybe this will initially bypass Model 3s/Ys and end up being part of the "secret sauce" for launching $25K Teslas.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Tue, Jan 26, 2021: (Pre+Main Session Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Open+Close ATHs; Shortzes Get Gamed"

Pre-Market Volume: 737,450
SP: $891.36 +10.56 (+1.20%)
Data as of 01/26/2021 09:29

Traded: (Pre+Main Session) $20,144,280,118.84 ($20.14B)
Volume: (Pre+Main Session) 22,659,748
VWAP: (Pre+Main Session) $888.99

Close: $883.09 / VWAP: 99.34%
TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $830 (+$10 from Mon)

TSLA S&P 500 Weight: 2.052737% (Jan 25)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / FB $837.082B / 803.36B = 104.20%
Note: Yahoo Finance yet to update TSLA Mkt Cap re shares issued Dec 11th (~$7.03B)
​

CEO Comp. Status: (est'd Mkt Cap including Dec 11th shares)

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $763.91B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $475.85B

Mkt Cap req'd for 8th tranche ($450B) likely achieved on Tue, Jan 19, 2021
Nota Bene: Operational milestones req'd (chart at link).
​

'Short' Report: Significant* increase in naked short selling today

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 48.4% (47th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 58.2% (55th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 2.83%* of Short Volume (63rd Percentile Rank Exempt)​

Comment: "Would you like to play a Gme?"

QOTD: @Chamath "Tell me what to buy tomorrow and I’ll throw a few 100 k’s at it to start"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Prunesquallor]

As has been mentioned by others in this thread, Elon/Tesla is not popular with some environmental groups/activists (voters), not popular with some of the more "progressive" politicians or their base (voters). More importantly, there will be huge bribes err campaign donations from both the "Big 3" and the unions. The politicians don't want to bite the hand that feeds them.

From having the dubious pleasure of serving on several contract evaluation boards in the past, I can tell you that US Government procurements like this are actually usually pretty tight from a requirements and contract awards standpoint. A legal protest from a loser can delay the contract award by many months if not years. Not what this administration wants I would think.

The contract can be structured so that there are multiple winners, possibly with down-select options if there is subsequent non-performance.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

CNBS doing their part in holding $TSLA down:

 

[corduroy]

1. Deep Learning
   
   
2. The Re -Invention of the Data Center
   
   
3. Virtual Worlds
   
   
4. Digital Wallets
   
   
5. Bitcoin’s Fundamentals
   
   
6. Bitcoin: Preparing For Institutions
   
   
7. Electric Vehicles (EVs)
   
   
8. Automation
   
   
9. Autonomous Ride -Hailing
   
   
10. Delivery Drones
    
    
11. Orbital Aerospace
    
    
12. 3D Printing
    
    
13. Long Read Sequencing
    
    
14. Multi -Cancer Screening
    
    
15. Cell and Gene Therapy: Generation 2

After skimming through the new ARK invest report, I feel great that my portfolio is 91% TSLA, 8% ARK and 1% Yolo stuff.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I can't imagine how stressful that it - every time I get another million it freaks me out, gains/losses $200-300k daily I kinda got used to, but $millions in a few minutes, honestly, I wouldn't like it.

There needs to be term that transcends “first world problem”. I am open to suggestions.