Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[juanmedina]

Just bought AP for my Performance Model 3. Doing my part

 

[Tslynk67]

Citron Research | Executive Editor Andrew Left | Publishing Since 2001

Andrew Left is still bullish

Was just about to post this. Never thought I'd read something like this coming from Citron. May you live in interesting times, and all that!

Citron listens to competition – not critics

Over the years, Citron has clearly not been a fan of Tesla and we doubt Elon Musk will be the CEO for the next 10 years. Citron is also not a fan of his disrespect for the SEC and we have no doubt that he is guilty of a few REG FD violations.

And yes we are still suing for the $420 tweet

BUT

The volume of misinformation that comes through our computer on a daily basis has become breathtaking and the “vocal shorts” and critical media in this name have gone too far in their demonizing of Elon Musk.

We are not here to pick fights with anyone and we always respect solid work but let’s state the obvious on many of the vocal critics whose voices dominate the Tesla conversation.

Again, we were short the stock for several years and remain the lead plaintiff in suing Musk for his 420 tweet. However, his critics are over their skis.

EDIT: Here's the full note: https://citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Citron-Expects-Tesla-Rebound-to-320.pdf

 

[omarsultan]

Agreed that there is no way they would refresh both at the same time. And it's anyone's guess as to when the refreshes will occur. While it's possible that the refresh, when it happens, will be just battery and motors, it's probable that a body refresh would happen at the same time just to give a new look.

Interesting point. I wonder what a refresh would entail?

Funny, I actually think the exterior would be the last thing tackled since the just did a refresh for the S and X is still pretty new. I would imagine the top of the list is an update to battery and drivetrain upgrade to support V3 supercharging (but still using the 16850 cell). I would also think the interior gets a refresh and they move to a single screen interior. This would simplify SW ad UI development for SW in general and FSD in particular.

I am eagerly awaiting the next gen S, but I think it's going to be a while.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Advertising using a good agency might be cost effective to improve their image and help sales medium term, even if they are selling all they can build right now. Improvement to their web site would be a good first step in a communications strategy and cheaper. Perhaps a series of videos to aid the less-informed who go to their web site:

• How the supercharger network works.
• Explain home charging and destination charging.
• How to buy a Tesla.
• How to get repairs, and how well that works.
• The warranty (you won't have to buy a new battery in a few years).
• AP and FSD.
• Show each vehicle inside and out:
  • cargo room;
  • what's under the hood
  • good look at the interior
  • two good sized people sitting comfortably in the back seat;
  • drivers of various sizes in the drivers seat:
    • a short person has a good view of the road;
    • a tall person has leg room and room over his head;
    • a fat guy has room and gracefully exits the car.
• Range.
• Routine service requirements (nil)
• A short history of the company and accomplishments
• Links to owners manuals.
  
• Etc.

A good friend bought a model 3 last fall. She is comfortable with basic computer/wireless devices but not technical.
One of many things she was not briefed on when she picked up her car was how almost anything in the car can be changed and/or improved in some way by OTA downloads. When something doesn't work as advertised or expected she doesn't know how to get help and advise. She tried calling Tesla Customer Service once and got nowhere. Is the online manual the source she should be looking to for good explanations of everything? Is it updated appropriately every time the UI or other features are changed?
Thanks in advance.

 

[homer214]

Was just about to post this. Never thought I'd read something like this coming from Citron. May you live in interesting times, and all tha

EDIT: Here's the full note: https://citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Citron-Expects-Tesla-Rebound-to-320.pdf

Perhaps Citron is on the path to redemption. More power to him.

 

[Intl Professor]

The shorts will claim "Tesla is a company with a pliable balance sheet."

Satin or silk? Spider weave?

Not likely. Mall leases commonly have provisions for minimum rent vs percentage of sales. The greater the sales, the more rent that is due (what Blankenship refers to as "surcharges"). But mall leases also usually contain provisions establishing mandatory hours of operation and prohibitions on "going dark". The penalties are Draconian. Suffice it to say that the leases are designed to discourage such behavior, so "no more sales" would likely mean more, rather than less rent that would be due.

Of course, sophisticated parties are free to negotiate whatever terms make sense to them at the time, so the devil would be in the details of each lease. But as far as I can tell, Tesla positioned itself in upscale malls and high end retail locations (at least in the Boston metro area),. I would be very surprised if those leases are not landlord-friendly.

As to landlord incentive, in Massachusetts, there is no duty to mitigate in event of a breach of a commercial lease. Landlords are likely to do so anyway as a matter of good business practice, but nothing requires them to fill a space vacated by a deep pocketed tenant over another space in which there is no backstop. In addition, there is often a significant lag in time due to marketing period, lease negotiations, buildout and grace period, so the damages are likely to be quite high under almost any scenario.

This is why I am surprised at the decision to close so many stores so abruptly. I trust that the bean counters did their homework in advance of the decision, but it just seems rushed to me. Just my opinion. Not necessarily fact.

All is relative to your metabolic rate. For normal rates like most here, Tesla announcements move faster so they seem abrupt. My rate is so low a week goes by and it seems like a day when 20 years younger. Really. Easier to be long even though I probably won't last another five.

 

[SunCatcher]

CNBC is indeed very slow at posting positive Tesla news, but they are making up for it by posting negative Tesla news super fast!

And made up BS and fact twisting posted even faster!

Warning; eyeroll fatigue possible if you click...
Tesla's onslaught of announcements is raising red flags about demand for its cars

 

[Tslynk67]

And made up BS and fact twisting posted even faster!
"Tesla’s onslaught of announcements is raising red flags about demand for its cars"
Warning; eyeroll fatigue possible if you click...
Tesla's onslaught of announcements is raising red flags about demand for its cars

That was there two or three days back, did they force it to the front page again?

 

[SunCatcher]

That was there two or three days back, did they force it to the front page again?

Man, you don't miss a beat, do you? I was just trying to make a point...

 

[Cherry Wine]

Citron Research | Executive Editor Andrew Left | Publishing Since 2001

Andrew Left is still bullish

This could be posted in /r/MurderedByWords. Wow.

 

[omarsultan]

A good friend bought a model 3 last fall. She is comfortable with basic computer/wireless devices but not technical.
One of many things she was not briefed on when she picked up her car was how almost anything in the car can be changed and/or improved in some way by OTA downloads. When something doesn't work as advertised or expected she doesn't know how to get help and advise. She tried calling Tesla Customer Service once and got nowhere. Is the online manual the source she should be looking to for good explanations of everything? Is it updated appropriately every time the UI or other features are changed?
Thanks in advance.

The owners manual is typically updated in sync w/ SW updates that change or add features. Our Tesla Owners Club (TOC) created something call the Co-Pilot manual specifically for folks like your friend--send her to this link: | Tesla Co-Pilot Manual -- the same link that is in my sig. The site is also used by a number of the other TOCs for their new owner orientation.

 

[Tslynk67]

Man, you don't miss a beat, do you? I was just trying to make a point...

No, but they do that - you get the same shitty headline several days later. I wasn't trying to be funny, sorry if it came across like that.

 

[nursebee]

Can someone post or PM me link to that kid doing GF china videos?

 

[RobStark]

Malls in general are struggling. Sublets may not be easy to find. Maybe the malls where Tesla is are an exception.

Malls in small town America are dying, usually when one major employer leaves.

Low end malls in the suburbs are also struggling.

Premium malls in wealthy Cities and suburbs where Tesla has stores are doing just fine. They are moving from selling "stuff" that you can buy online to "experiences" , food, and services. Virtual reality bars, trendy eateries, grooming services etc.

 

[Driver Dave]

And made up BS and fact twisting posted even faster!

Warning; eyeroll fatigue possible if you click...
Tesla's onslaught of announcements is raising red flags about demand for its cars

Tesla's big plans to make more cars is raising red flags about demand for more cars!

Makes no sense...

It is pretty funny. Tesla is selling all these cars without any usual marketing or advertising.

And people are worried about demand.

You imagine if they actually tapped the marketing and ad spend just a touch. And let more people know about how great these cars are?

They have a demand problem. Too much demand.

I know many people just waiting for their ICE leases to end, and then can't wait to get a Tesla.

 

[SunCatcher]

No, but they do that - you get the same shitty headline several days later. I wasn't trying to be funny, sorry if it came across like that.

I think you're probably about the funniest contributor to this forum. And I love and appreciate you for that.

Helpful too. Well sometimes...

 

[Driver Dave]

Amazon closing all of its U.S. pop-up stores
Amazon closing all of its U.S. pop-up stores

I can't believe Amazon is closing stores!

Their stock is going to crash!

Their business is over!

This is showing no demand!

Their CEO must be crazy! (though this might be a little true at this point)

 

[Curt Renz]

Was just about to post this. Never thought I'd read something like this coming from Citron. May you live in interesting times, and all that!

Citron listens to competition – not critics

Over the years, Citron has clearly not been a fan of Tesla and we doubt Elon Musk will be the CEO for the next 10 years. Citron is also not a fan of his disrespect for the SEC and we have no doubt that he is guilty of a few REG FD violations.

And yes we are still suing for the $420 tweet

BUT

The volume of misinformation that comes through our computer on a daily basis has become breathtaking and the “vocal shorts” and critical media in this name have gone too far in their demonizing of Elon Musk.

We are not here to pick fights with anyone and we always respect solid work but let’s state the obvious on many of the vocal critics whose voices dominate the Tesla conversation.

Again, we were short the stock for several years and remain the lead plaintiff in suing Musk for his 420 tweet. However, his critics are over their skis.

EDIT: Here's the full note: https://citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Citron-Expects-Tesla-Rebound-to-320.pdf

That's from Andrew Left of Citron Research who for years was one of the most vocal Tesla short sellers. In fact short selling is his specialty. Then a little while back he did a U-turn and went long Tesla. Today he is giving reasons reaffirming his Telsa long position.

 

[Artful Dodger]

This is not going to be a quick fight. Just look at the Open Interest for Jan 17, 2020 Options: that's over 100K PUT options at a Strike price of $100 or less:

Shortz not giving up easily, or soon.

 

[jerry33]

Premium malls in wealthy Cities and suburbs where Tesla has stores are doing just fine. They are moving from selling "stuff" that you can buy online to "experiences" , food, and services. Virtual reality bars, trendy eateries, grooming services etc.

Maybe. I don't believe malls are doing nearly as well as they were prior to the "every store in a mall is the same as every other mall" venue we have today. I can recall when going to malls in other cities was an adventure because of the different stores. Now it just doesn't matter. If you're not alert, you might actually forget what city you're in.