Swampgator
Active Member
True but he two are not mutually exclusive. Reducing cost by putting in fewer, more energy dense cells also lightens the pack, increasing range as a byproduct.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
ReflexFunds is saying they may be making both packs. The newly designed pack for the standard range. Then a depopulated version of the long range version for only the plus model until they have fully ramped up production of the new pack. Demand for standard range pack far and away exceeds initial production capacity on their lines since it's an S-curve.
Seems possible, but I don't see that it matters. When they've fully ramped up the standard range pack production, it would quickly replace that temporary solution for the plus model. (If Tesla did that)
Yup I sat in a Tesla the first time at that Santa Monica store in 2013. I fell in love with the car but couldn’t justify it because I was about to move to northern Arizona where there was precious little charging infrastructure at the time, and one more thing to worry about in the move. Fast forward to last fall when I finally pulled the trigger. I took a friend to that same store and he is now looking at an M3.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Agreed. I suspect Tesla will just quietly roll out the necessary hardware upgrades without any fanfare. Maybe a notification along with a firmware update.
Tesla does incremental improvements all the time, its routine. Then later, some experimenter/hobbiest like our own @Ingineer will discover the updates in due course.
Cheers!
I admit to getting a little worried by the slow drive below 300, but the fact that we have stabilized at 280 is pretty reassuring. We know that Q1 will be no or low profit. If we haven't gone lower than 280 yet then my gut says that's the floor, barring some new crazy news.
According to my Thinkorswim newsfeed a few minutes ago at 12:40 pm CST:
Canaccord Genuity has reaffirmed its BUY rating on Tesla with a price target of $450, after the electric car maker this week introduced V3 Supercharging…
Canaccord Genuity has reaffirmed its BUY rating on Tesla with a price target of $450, after the electric car maker this week introduced V3 Supercharging…
What do you mean? Musk's guidance is that they don't expect a profit.
Even for the original guidance, it's not a miss because one time write-offs were excluded. And there will be a bunch of one time write-offs. (stores closing, etc.)
Many of us speculated that the Model 3's results in Consumer Reports' recent media blitz might not be representative of the current state of the Model 3 due to that dataset's age. TrueDelta took a special 2nd-half-of-2018 survey for certain models for which they felt that more recent data would be helpful. In it, the Model 3 showed dramatic reliability improvement.
Excerpt:
Tesla Model 3s sold in the latter half of 2018 with dual motors and other new features scored much better, 41 repair trips per 100 cars. We have a smaller sample size for these, 18 cars, but the improvement is so dramatic that it’s almost certainly a real one and not sampling error. In other words, Tesla might be getting its stuff together, at least on the reliability front.
Tesla Model Ss through the 2016 continue to require repairs two to three times as often as the average car, with stats ranging from 60 (for the older, out of warranty cars) to 88 for the 2015s. The 2016.5-2017 refreshed Tesla Model S, though, scored 31 for all of 2018, close to the average for all 2017 cars and even better than what we’re seeing for recent variants of the Model 3, suggesting that the improvement isn’t limited to the Model 3 or a fluke.
The 2016 Model X remained unreliable, if much less so than early on in its run, with a score of 77.
Excerpt:
Tesla Model 3s sold in the latter half of 2018 with dual motors and other new features scored much better, 41 repair trips per 100 cars. We have a smaller sample size for these, 18 cars, but the improvement is so dramatic that it’s almost certainly a real one and not sampling error. In other words, Tesla might be getting its stuff together, at least on the reliability front.
Tesla Model Ss through the 2016 continue to require repairs two to three times as often as the average car, with stats ranging from 60 (for the older, out of warranty cars) to 88 for the 2015s. The 2016.5-2017 refreshed Tesla Model S, though, scored 31 for all of 2018, close to the average for all 2017 cars and even better than what we’re seeing for recent variants of the Model 3, suggesting that the improvement isn’t limited to the Model 3 or a fluke.
The 2016 Model X remained unreliable, if much less so than early on in its run, with a score of 77.
Seeing how the $35k Model 3 compare with a $30k ICE sedan, I guess within a few years BEV demand will account for 50% of world sedan demand. There really is no comparison. BEVs will continue to get better and cheaper, charging becomes more convenient, and people will realize ICE's resale value will drop fast. The EV is much more compelling. Elon said they are working on something that Model 3 insurance will be lower than ICE cars. ICE cars lose on every point.
Same thing probably will happen on SUV/CUV and truck side after Model Y and Tesla truck are available. I think this transition won't be linear. The tipping point is very close now. If my estimate is correct, the world BEV demand is likely to reach 30 million by 2024, one third of that demand could go to Tesla. Tesla could maintain 20% margin while other car companies sell cars at a loss. I think this is the most likely scenario in the next 5 years.
How can shorts think Tesla will run out of demand, but ICE car makers will continue to have 80 million demand a year? Their logic is really weird to me. Maybe these shorts have never driven a Model 3?
Same thing probably will happen on SUV/CUV and truck side after Model Y and Tesla truck are available. I think this transition won't be linear. The tipping point is very close now. If my estimate is correct, the world BEV demand is likely to reach 30 million by 2024, one third of that demand could go to Tesla. Tesla could maintain 20% margin while other car companies sell cars at a loss. I think this is the most likely scenario in the next 5 years.
How can shorts think Tesla will run out of demand, but ICE car makers will continue to have 80 million demand a year? Their logic is really weird to me. Maybe these shorts have never driven a Model 3?
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Feint with the left, knock out punch with the right. Yes. That will be reported as a left hand miss.
It really is a slam dunk. For 35k you get the world's safest car with the best technology and over 100mpg? If people get past the range issue (and V3 superchargers help that a lot) you are a fool to buy a similarly priced ICE car.
Edit: AND no more oil changes, gas station stops, better mechanical reliability (I think), no replacing of hoses, belts, spark plugs and all that nonsense.
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jhm
Well-Known Member
This is really off base. To illustrate, the Decatur, GA store in my neighborhood is also a delivery center and service center. In fact it had been closed down as store for a few year, but brought back recently for that function. It will again close down as store. Nevertheless, it is highly needed as a service center and likely needed as a delivery center for the foreseeable future. There simply is no need to break a lease here. The question is really, what is the best use of the this property while it is under lease. Service and delivery are clearly a more valuable use of this space for now.
So thinking more broadly, the only properties where lease breaking would make sense would be the glossy galleries that don't also provide service and delivery. But to my knowledge, Tesla is not talking about closing those, or at least breaking a lease to do so.
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Model 3 trending hard in Chinese searches:
Vincent on Twitter
GF3 can't come soon enough
The addressable market in China will grow dramatically with the SR, and its margins will be much higher than on cars produced in California. Just moving GA to China will be a huge margin benefit, since GA is so labour-intensive. And that happens in the May-Jul timeframe.
Vincent on Twitter
GF3 can't come soon enough
The addressable market in China will grow dramatically with the SR, and its margins will be much higher than on cars produced in California. Just moving GA to China will be a huge margin benefit, since GA is so labour-intensive. And that happens in the May-Jul timeframe.We’ll, my gut says we will reach 300 before next Friday. Too much noise this week plus bad macro.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
That's the kind of chart I want to see for SP.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
hey, give 'em a break. They needed time to work out how to frame it.
...and that's all they could come up with.
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