Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

Norway back to its March average today after a slightly slower Thursday. Still on pace to make this quarter Tesla's best in Norway by a fair margin, but also still too early in the month to say whether that's likely to occur:

View attachment 384263

Is there a place where all EVs sales are maintained ?

 

[KarenRei]

Hmm, did this get mentioned here? Canaccord reaffirmed its $450 target.

 

[Lucky_Man]

I would agree except currently when a hotel chain asks about what to install for their customers the car industry and charging industry who want lots of money says CCSJ1772chademoblah blah blah and it cost $1xxxx to install. In reality all the hotel chain needs is......View attachment 384230

True. Just be sure it's UL-rated 3R minimum. A weatherproof enclosure is required by NEC code when installed in an outdoor location. [Edited - spelling]

 

[Lucky_Man]

Not likely. Mall leases commonly have provisions for minimum rent vs percentage of sales. The greater the sales, the more rent that is due (what Blankenship refers to as "surcharges"). But mall leases also usually contain provisions establishing mandatory hours of operation and prohibitions on "going dark".

OT

Simple solution. Just sell Tesla merchandise. I'd buy a new hat there

 

[jerry33]

Many of us speculated that the Model 3's results in Consumer Reports' recent media blitz might not be representative of the current state of the Model 3 due to that dataset's age. TrueDelta took a special 2nd-half-of-2018 survey for certain models for which they felt that more recent data would be helpful. In it, the Model 3 showed dramatic reliability improvement.

I received that email as well. I'm not sure if that's any more reliable than the CR one because it's not a random sampling, only owners who signed up have input. It also doesn't do a good job of differentiating between what's major in an ICE and what's major in an EV. Not that I don't doubt the 3 is reliable, but I believe it makes the previous cars appear much worse than they really are.

 

[Unpilot]

She is bullish as something.

 

[printf42]

According to my Thinkorswim newsfeed a few minutes ago at 12:40 pm CST:

Canaccord Genuity has reaffirmed its BUY rating on Tesla with a price target of $450, after the electric car maker this week introduced V3 Supercharging…

Shorts will be screaming:
Another big reason to buy Tesla cars just went away.
No more supercharger chats with fellow Tesla owners, they just slashed average supercharging time in half.
Sell sell sell!

 

[electrichapp]

my crystal ball says we'll be closing at just below 285

 

[Lycanthrope]

What do you mean? Musk's guidance is that they don't expect a profit.

You musk be miss-taken, CNBC shows an estimated 50c EPS!!!!

 

[lklundin]

Fifteen clicks to go for the Spartans...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Heavy volume on the $280 strike CALL option today. Sitting at 12.73K in vol at 2:17 EST.

Lots of PUTS there too, at 5.37K today.

 

[jerry33]

There is nothing "obvious" about a refresh being imminent--that is someone's theory with no backstop as far as I can see.

Tesla also does not have "stock" they need to flush. Everything is built-to-order and batched with a just-in-time supply chain so the component inventory is kept lean.

If you look at the history of the S and X, they just make rolling changes so you end up with a better car than you thought you were getting. They do the with big changes like AP hardware (including the original rollout) and the refreshed nose, but also a bunch of little things along the way.

Finally, as lean was the company runs, I cannot see them trying to refresh two models at the same time, especially since the X is only three years old. I would imagine every spare cycle has been devoted to getting the Y out the door and then pivoting over to the pickup later this year.

Agreed that there is no way they would refresh both at the same time. And it's anyone's guess as to when the refreshes will occur. While it's possible that the refresh, when it happens, will be just battery and motors, it's probable that a body refresh would happen at the same time just to give a new look.

 

[brian45011]

This is really off base...So thinking more broadly, the only properties where lease breaking would make sense would be the glossy galleries that don't also provide service and delivery. But to my knowledge, Tesla is not talking about closing those, or at least breaking a lease to do so.

OK, but where do the savings come from that allows a 6% across the board price reductions, and what are the write-downs that Elon mentioned in the revised guidance during the private conference call with the press?

 

[EVNow]

Heavy volume on the $280 strike CALL option today. Sitting at 12.73K in vol at 2:17 EST.

Lots of PUTS there too, at 5.37K today.

Max Pain 285.

 

[anthonyj]

Citron Research | Executive Editor Andrew Left | Publishing Since 2001

Andrew Left is still bullish

 

[juanmedina]

Just bought AP for my Performance Model 3. Doing my part

 

[Lycanthrope]

Citron Research | Executive Editor Andrew Left | Publishing Since 2001

Andrew Left is still bullish

Was just about to post this. Never thought I'd read something like this coming from Citron. May you live in interesting times, and all that!

Citron listens to competition – not critics

Over the years, Citron has clearly not been a fan of Tesla and we doubt Elon Musk will be the CEO for the next 10 years. Citron is also not a fan of his disrespect for the SEC and we have no doubt that he is guilty of a few REG FD violations.

And yes we are still suing for the $420 tweet

BUT

The volume of misinformation that comes through our computer on a daily basis has become breathtaking and the “vocal shorts” and critical media in this name have gone too far in their demonizing of Elon Musk.

We are not here to pick fights with anyone and we always respect solid work but let’s state the obvious on many of the vocal critics whose voices dominate the Tesla conversation.

Again, we were short the stock for several years and remain the lead plaintiff in suing Musk for his 420 tweet. However, his critics are over their skis.

EDIT: Here's the full note: https://citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Citron-Expects-Tesla-Rebound-to-320.pdf

 

[omarsultan]

Agreed that there is no way they would refresh both at the same time. And it's anyone's guess as to when the refreshes will occur. While it's possible that the refresh, when it happens, will be just battery and motors, it's probable that a body refresh would happen at the same time just to give a new look.

Interesting point. I wonder what a refresh would entail?

Funny, I actually think the exterior would be the last thing tackled since the just did a refresh for the S and X is still pretty new. I would imagine the top of the list is an update to battery and drivetrain upgrade to support V3 supercharging (but still using the 16850 cell). I would also think the interior gets a refresh and they move to a single screen interior. This would simplify SW ad UI development for SW in general and FSD in particular.

I am eagerly awaiting the next gen S, but I think it's going to be a while.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Advertising using a good agency might be cost effective to improve their image and help sales medium term, even if they are selling all they can build right now. Improvement to their web site would be a good first step in a communications strategy and cheaper. Perhaps a series of videos to aid the less-informed who go to their web site:

• How the supercharger network works.
• Explain home charging and destination charging.
• How to buy a Tesla.
• How to get repairs, and how well that works.
• The warranty (you won't have to buy a new battery in a few years).
• AP and FSD.
• Show each vehicle inside and out:
  • cargo room;
  • what's under the hood
  • good look at the interior
  • two good sized people sitting comfortably in the back seat;
  • drivers of various sizes in the drivers seat:
    • a short person has a good view of the road;
    • a tall person has leg room and room over his head;
    • a fat guy has room and gracefully exits the car.
• Range.
• Routine service requirements (nil)
• A short history of the company and accomplishments
• Links to owners manuals.
  
• Etc.

A good friend bought a model 3 last fall. She is comfortable with basic computer/wireless devices but not technical.
One of many things she was not briefed on when she picked up her car was how almost anything in the car can be changed and/or improved in some way by OTA downloads. When something doesn't work as advertised or expected she doesn't know how to get help and advise. She tried calling Tesla Customer Service once and got nowhere. Is the online manual the source she should be looking to for good explanations of everything? Is it updated appropriately every time the UI or other features are changed?
Thanks in advance.

 

[homer214]

Was just about to post this. Never thought I'd read something like this coming from Citron. May you live in interesting times, and all tha

EDIT: Here's the full note: https://citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Citron-Expects-Tesla-Rebound-to-320.pdf

Perhaps Citron is on the path to redemption. More power to him.