Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

A true dip will take this into the 50DMA.

As much as we do not want to think about it, WS is in a sticky wicket and future booms depend on them extricating themselves without crashing everything.

There will be casualties. I hope on Monday or next week so we can bury this with minimal damage and move on. I will keep my opinions to my self as to what may happen.

But If not, then when and how?

Only reason I mention the 50.

Not an advice.

It makes no sense to say "A true dip will take this to the 50DMA".

Dips are not the cause of anything, they are the result. "Dips" don't take us anywhere, they are where we have already gone. It's not a dip until it happens. It appears what you meant to say was "I define a 'true dip' to be a return to the 50DMA". Or maybe you were saying you believe a dip to the 50DMA is in the cards. Or maybe that you want one. Maybe all three.

No doubt, a dip to the 50 DMA could very well happen and that has always been true because no one can see the future accurately. But there is nothing special about the 50 DMA. It's just a reflection of the previous 50 days. TSLA could even revisit the 100 or 200 DMA. Nothing special about those points either.

The way I'm positioned I really don't care which way TSLA moves in the short-term. If it goes far enough down without a fundamental negative turn in the company's prospect, I will buy more. If not, I won't. No big deal either way. I really have no preference in the short-term movements of TSLA. I just keep my eyes on the company and realize if the company takes care of it's business, the share price will eventually reflect that. That's the beauty of being a long-term investor.

But don't stop at the 50 DMA, markets can change their mind faster than you can change your clothes. If so, it will go well beyond the 50 DMA. And you might think the market will telegraph it's intentions and give you warning, but it doesn't. It might be a head fake or it might be real. People don't appreciate this enough. And that's one big reason why, on average, people who are not buy and hold investors have inferior returns.

Bet on good companies, never bet money you can't afford to lose, and stay the course unless the company's prospects change for the worse. This is not a game of nickels and dimes or of days and weeks.

 

[traxila]

It makes no sense to say "A true dip will take this to the 50DMA".

Dips are not the cause of anything, they are the result. "Dips" don't take us anywhere, they are where we have already gone. It's not a dip until it happens. It appears what you meant to say was "I define a 'true dip' to be a return to the 50DMA". Or maybe you were saying you believe a dip to the 50DMA is in the cards. Or maybe that you want one. Maybe all three.

No doubt, a dip to the 50 DMA could very well happen and that has always been true because no one can see the future accurately. But there is nothing special about the 50 DMA. It's just a reflection of the previous 50 days. TSLA could even revisit the 100 or 200 DMA. Nothing special about those points either.

The way I'm positioned I really don't care which way TSLA moves in the short-term. If it goes far enough down without a fundamental negative turn in the company's prospect, I will buy more. If not, I won't. No big deal either way. I really have no preference in the short-term movements of TSLA. I just keep my eyes on the company and realize if the company takes care of it's business, the share price will eventually reflect that. That's the beauty of being a long-term investor.

But don't stop at the 50 DMA, markets can change their mind faster than you can change your clothes. If so, it will go well beyond the 50 DMA. And you might think the market will telegraph it's intentions and give you warning, but it doesn't. It might be a head fake or it might be real. People don't appreciate this enough. And that's one big reason why, on average, people who are not buy and hold investors have inferior returns.

Bet on good companies, never bet money you can't afford to lose, and stay the course unless the company's prospects change for the worse. This is not a game of nickels and dimes or of days and weeks.

Yes, was only saying that dip might be more severe if macros continue to get trashed from the chaos unleashed ultimately by our hedge fund buddies who want to play by their rules only.

Was pointing to the 50 as a place that I believe has strong support, and is not that far away.

You are correct in what you wrote.

 

[Eugene Ash]

As an FYI - I have heard people in various online forums saying or implying that the elimination of the turn signal stalks on the steering wheel is some devious Elon plot, alongside implications as to their legality; as well as general opposition to this idea.

This is not a new idea. These were found at least as far back as 12 years ago in 2009 when Ferrari launched them on the 2010 Ferrari 458.

The purpose of this was to be able to have your hands not leave the wheel - particularly when driving enthusiastically. Another benefit is that the signals are always available to your hands on the wheel regardless of how much it is turned.

Trun stalks elimination is indeed not a new idea. Somehow it was legal to drive these citroen cx in 70's:

 

[AudubonB]

Trun stalks elimination is indeed not a new idea. Somehow it was legal to drive these citroen cx in 70's:

I give up. Where?

 

[MC3OZ]

Weekend Speculation

it is interesting how they are setting up at least 1 possibly 3 (or more) Gigapresses very early in Austin, and I don't think they did that at Berlin.

Could these be the bigger machines for the Cybertruck?

Well the machine they are setting up sure is big, but it might be hard to compare to the size of the Fremont presses.

 

[StealthP3D]

People really like staying poor for whatever reason.

They want to be rich but they think it must be difficult and take a lot of activity to get there. In the meantime they will pretend they are are rich by using the profits from the sale of those 4 shares to buy a new sofa. But not too nice of a sofa.

 

[MXWing]

A short chat from today... We still have long way to go.

Neighbour: My husband got 8 of Tesla shares not long ago.
Me: Great!
N: He's already sold 4 as he had 100% gains.
Me: Why????
N: Tesla shares are super overvalued! Better have those sold now than lose (all) the money.
Me: Crickets....
N: Where do they make those EV cars?
Me: Freemont, Shanghai, ... soon Giga Berlin, Giga Texas. Have you seen any of those, utube perhaps???
N: What? No. I've heard GM is going to have plenty of EVs.
Me: Nice talking to you.

/OT

According to WSB, your diamond hands in TSLA would make you the neighbors boyfriend.

You’ll have a problem on your hands when your neighbor realizes her husband is a paper handed retard that can’t provide her the tendies.

 

[AZRI11]

Update.

This NY Times Auto reporter must get paid somehow by GM right?
I mean that is the only thing that makes sense.

View attachment 632350

He's an anti-musker. Long history of hit pieces and loves legacy automotive PR teams. To put it another way a "journalist"

 

[RobsJester]

Hadn't anyone done the coast to coast trip (albeit a bit slower) by using private chargers, 50 amp campground outlets and 30 amp motel outlets?
.

Absolutely, a Roadster circumnavigated the world in 2010 on a 24,000 mile trip - sponsored by Tag Heuer.

Tesla Roadster arrives in Paris at conclusion of historic world tour

TAG Heuer and Tesla Motors Launch Worldwide Partnership

Some beautiful eye-candy :

 

[PeterJA]

A new hit-piece from Forbes appeared in my Apple News feed:
Will Tesla Break The S&P 500? (Pt 4) – Managing “Insane” Trading Volume

Written by "Founder & Director of the Quantitative Finance Program and Hanlon Financial Systems Center at the Stevens Institute of Technology (New Jersey) and Advisory Board Member at Hanlon Investment Management."

From such credentials, you might expect persuasive analysis. And it is... if you lack all critical thinking skills.

The addition of Tesla to the S&P 500 Index triggered an extraordinary upheaval in the market.... The share price is now clearly disconnected from anything resembling “true value.” Its price/earnings ratio is over 1500, which is 40 times greater than the market average P/E (which is itself higher than any any point in the last decade).

It is a bubble. Regardless of how we assess the company’s business prospects.​

This assertion is accompanied by zero assessment of the company's business prospects. There is no mention, much less assessment, of Tesla's extraordinary growth rate, product pipeline, addressable markets, battery breakthroughs, manufacturing breakthroughs, FSD leadership, Tesla Network potential, Tesla Energy potential, etc etc.

Instead, the evidence-free assertion is followed by a blizzard of charts and graphs, nearly all showing the same thing: TSLA's trading volume on S&P inclusion day was mighty damn high. This noncontroversial horse is beaten without mercy into a damp spot on the ground... as if it has anything to do with Tesla's business prospects. It is all impressively quantitative, befitting a "Quantitative Finance" academic pretending he has a clue about a tech business. I mean golly, do we really need eight graphs showing the volume was high? Wouldn't two or three do the job?

He also pads his article with jargony insights such as...

Interestingly, the average share price across the market traded on the Quad Witch was also about 25% higher than normal, suggesting that the trading was skewed towards large caps – exactly what one would expect in the Tesla addition scenario.​

What this expected-yet-interesting statistic has to do with Tesla's "true value" is not clear to my non-academic eyes. But he helpfully illustrates it with yet another chart, then finally concludes with...

S&P purposely scheduled the Tesla index-buying to occur on one of the heaviest trading days of the year, so that the Tesla increment could be more easily absorbed.... It was a smart move, and it seems to have worked.... the index change was carried out without causing an obvious market break.​

In other words, the article title was clickbait.

What did change was the psychology of the market. The volume surge smashed the normal price/value relationship, and set the stage for the bubble that ensued. In the next installment, we’ll consider this aspect of the event more closely.​

You can't consider something "more closely" if you haven't considered it at all, according to my grasp of English. But the distinguished academic is right about one thing: charts are impressive. Here is mine...

 

[JustMe]

They want to be rich but they think it must be difficult and take a lot of activity to get there. In the meantime they will pretend they are are rich by using the profits from the sale of those 4 shares to buy a new sofa. But not too nice of a sofa.

Well if they are lucky they might buy one of these magical couches whose cushions hide tiny treasures like the ones TMC members are always buying shares with.

 

[feigen66]

A new hit-piece from Forbes appeared in my Apple News feed:
Will Tesla Break The S&P 500? (Pt 4) – Managing “Insane” Trading Volume

Written by "Founder & Director of the Quantitative Finance Program and Hanlon Financial Systems Center at the Stevens Institute of Technology (New Jersey) and Advisory Board Member at Hanlon Investment Management."

From such credentials, you might expect persuasive analysis. And it is... if you lack all critical thinking skills.
View attachment 632503

Did "Quantitative Finance" ever create any value other speculative hedging?

 

[EVWatcher]

Where on earth are you located?

SF bay area

 

[EVWatcher]

was watching a movie that I frankly found to be entertaining but not at all artistic and noticed some prime product placement that resulted in... **** all.

make a good car. people will buy it. make a PoS and people wont



social cred to the first person to name the movie

 

[kengchang]

was watching a movie that I frankly found to be entertaining but not at all artistic and noticed some prime product placement that resulted in... **** all.

make a good car. people will buy it. make a PoS and people wont

View attachment 632508

social cred to the first person to name the movie

Too easy....Avengers

 

[EVWatcher]

Well..... Avengers:Endgame. But really. who bought that PoS because of that movie? Audi was like "marketing opportunity" and tesla - who received free advertising in ironman 2 and musk being called the real world iron man was like "ya... were good. thank for the offer."

 

[insaneoctane]

Now this Crazy.

In the New York Times, GMs fluff PR announcement about having electric by 2035 got not one but 2 front page featuring stories above the fold both Friday and Saturday.

Same story. Two days. Front page news. Above fold!

Wow.

With all that is going on in the world, this non story BS press release gets two days of front page???

How does this happen?

Man, whoever is paying Neal Boudette to spin these legacy auto propaganda articles to the front page editors at the Times, give him a raise.

Friday front page:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/business/gm-zero-emission-vehicles.html

Saturday front page:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/business/general-motors-electric-cars.html

No wonder TSLA takes it dips. There still is so much misinformation about the auto business out there being peddled as front page news.

People still have no idea the sea change that is happening.

The front page headline should be:

GM’s Decision To Go Electric By 2035 Will Be Too Little Way Way Way Too Late.

and then

GM In 2035, Hoping To At Least Be The Next GME.

The reality is that news sources are all very different than they used to be. Media serves a different master. It used to be about delivering the most newsworthy stories, objectively, to the people. Today it's about narratives and strategic angles and what pays. The sooner everyone learns that, the better we'll be able to treat articles for what they are and the less you'll be shocked.
The only thing you can really do about it is keep buying Tesla while others are influenced to buy GM stock. The misinformation will likely help you get TSLA cheaper than if it were more objective....

 

[insaneoctane]

So true. My wife thinks its dumb how few color options tesla have. Hell, even I think so. As the number of them go up, I don't want to have the exact same color & car and trim as the other 36 teslas in the car park... FFS how hard can paint color choice be?

Wrap your car

 

[Spacep0d]

He's an anti-musker. Long history of hit pieces and loves legacy automotive PR teams. To put it another way a "journalist"

He wrote cache but meant cachet.

 

[EVMeister]

Wrap your car

Here in the UK that has implications for insurance. Some insurance providers won't touch wrapped vehicles, others will up to a certain value and often it increases the premium. You also have to inform the DVLA of the colour change to the vehicle. A nice premium wrap here would set you back a lot more than Tesla's current colour options (even Multicoat Red). And on a lease vehicle that might be prohibitively expensive - plus you'd need to have the wrap removed before handing the car back. So it's actually a fair bit of extra hassle and expense compared to the car coming in a different colour from the factory.