Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainves...erman_battery_partner_tesla_wants_to_develop/

New German battery partner: Tesla wants to develop glass separators with Uni Bayreuth

In addition to another chair, four companies are named as participants: Füller Glastechnologie, Virtrulan Glass Textile, Varta Microbattery and Tesla, in this case with the addition "Germany", i.e. the German subsidiary based in Munich.

The operational safety of lithium-ion batteries depends crucially on the separators used to separate the electrodes, the university explains in its communication . The aim of the project is therefore to develop novel separators made of glass. Work on it will begin at the beginning of March and will be funded by the Bavarian Research Foundation for three years. The glass separators should withstand temperatures of at least 500 degrees and also slow down the aging of battery cells.

 

[Tslynk67]

Also, even with the older FSD that we all have, have you noticed that after a couple of highly publicized Autopilot deaths, there haven't been any the last couple of years, even as the number of people using Autopilot has increased by a lot?

Just to avoid misunderstandings, as far as I know there have been zero deaths caused by Autopilot, but a handful of fatalities where the drivers were either negligent, distracted or consciously chose not to take control of their vehicles when required

 

[lklundin]

For what it's worth Frankfurt opened green, currently at 574€ - ca. 695$.

 

[MXWing]

For what it's worth Frankfurt opened green, currently at 574€ - ca. 695$.View attachment 640945

Thanks for update. For proper context, when you quote TSLA in Frankfurt, you gotta quote the 10Y Treasury yield at the time to.

We could be 474 Euros 6 hours from now if bonds crank on 0.02% more interest..

 

[RobStark]

If anybody can have as much batteries as they want- why does Tesla keep saying they will happily buy every single one anybody can make for them and are ramping up their own production and they still can't get anywhere near enough batteries for demand?

Then how is it that other companies actually sell BEVs/PHEVs if there are no batteries for anyone except Tesla?

EV Sales: 2020 Sales by OEM

Tesla has 23% Global BEV market share. How did anyone else get batteries?

The above is GM/LG celebrating fitting the last metal frame for their 30 GWh factory in Ohio.

Which apparently GM does not have the vision for

And LG will not be able to supply raw materials to.

Just for Laughs.

 

[PokerFJÆS]

With $TSLA down 25% on no fundamental ground, I thought I'd try my hand on short term calls again. So I bought a few $850 calls for $4 and $10 for two and four weeks out. If the stock price recovers I'll be making 5x or more, so it's a good bet if the odds of recovery are >20%. Naturally this kind of bet is only appropriate for a small % of my bankroll. Not advice.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Macros are up slightly in early action on the Futures Market in New York:

DOW30 Mar 21 +76.50 +0.25% 18:11:01
S&P500 Mar 21 +14.87 +0.39% 18:11:01
NDQ100 Mar 21 +71.12 +0.55% 18:11:01​

Cheers!

Macros have increased their gains:

DOW30 Mar 21 +271.0 +0.88% 03:00:09
S&P500 Mar 21 +39.63 +1.04% 03:00:07
NDX100 Mar 21 +199.50 +1.55% 03:00:09​

 

[Buckminster]

TSLA $693 in Frankfurt

 

[CorneliusXX]

Batteries won't be "falling out of the sky" in our lifetimes but there will be huge profits for those who can scale production of raw materials and finished products more quickly than the rest. The people who scoop those profits up will be the people who have enough vision to see how big the actual demand will be and invest the money now. You can bet this won't be Ford or GM.

We put humans on the moon in less than a decade by setting a big goal and commiting the resources to it. The world is awash with investment capital for electrification as evidenced by the share prices of any company with "EV" in the description. Throwing our hands up in the air and saying "I guess we will have to build hybrids because there won't be enough batteries in 2030" is a self-fulfilling prophecy and a real cop out.

Hybrids are barely better than efficient ICE cars and the development time for a new car model is just as long as the time to get a new mine operational.

As the battery industry grows, I think it is likely that we may have certain pockets where we are not supply constrained. As an example, there is no limitation to the major raw materials required for LFP cells, and these cells are perfectly fine for stationary storage functions. Presumably there should be no reason why production can't scale quickly in this area to meet demand assuming the will to manufacture them is there.

Although I agree we will be supply constrained for the higher energy density cells for a long time given the industry requires gigantic changes in supply chain and where tech advancements lead to real product benefit via cheaper, lighter and better performing products.

 

[Drezil]

As the battery industry grows, I think it is likely that we may have certain pockets where we are not supply constrained. As an example, there is no limitation to the major raw materials required for LFP cells, and these cells are perfectly fine for stationary storage functions. Presumably there should be no reason why production can't scale quickly in this area to meet demand assuming the will to manufacture them is there.

The main problem is that "scaling up" raw materials takes time. Last thing i heard was that a new mine takes about 5 years from planning to decent extraction.

Not a problem for LFP per se (Lithium seems to be the bottleneck here, but production is planned to ramp up significantly + new methods like the one tesla presented at battery day).

Using LFP eases the burden from nickel/cobalt. But as you said this only works in some areas ("small" range, stationary storage), but is not sufficient for others (semi, truck, plane, ..).

 

[EVMeister]

I love the silent anticipation in this thread.

 

[Buckminster]

I love the silent anticipation in this thread.

1/4 million seconds since Elon last tweeted...

 

[Singuy]

Then how is it that other companies actually sell BEVs/PHEVs if there are no batteries for anyone except Tesla?

EV Sales: 2020 Sales by OEM

Tesla has 23% Global BEV market share. How did anyone else get batteries?

View attachment 640946

View attachment 640947

The above is GM/LG celebrating fitting the last metal frame for their 30 GWh factory in Ohio.

Which apparently GM does not have the vision for

And LG will not be able to supply raw materials to.

Just for Laughs.

Although Tesla is 23% of the market share on that list, it's closer to 40% of the battery usage. Popular cars like the Hong Guang Mini by Siac has a battery pack size of 10kwh. I3 from BMW has battery size in the 40s while egolf/zoe are in the 50s. Tesla's average is in the 70s with their given mix.

 

[jerry33]

Honestly, I think he has a point. TSLA's volatility is not for everyone. If you (not you in particular... anyone) can't handle the volatility, you're better off not putting your money in $TSLA.

An alternative is putting your money in TSLA and pretend it's not there for a few years.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Does anyone have a decent, verified breakdown of WHERE teslas batteries come from? Even as an attentive investor, I'm really not sure. I know they have gigafactory nevada, and thats a deal with panasonic, where I assume 100% of the factory output goes to Tesla, and I know they also have this new pilot line for the 4680s which is (as I understand it) in freemont, but if you put a gun to my head and asked me to explain how this breaks down in terms of percentage of batteries consumed... I'd have no idea.

And I assume GF China is making its own batteries, but again... no idea.
Frankly this is an area where I would like to see tesla take on MORE vertical integration. I don't want them to be outbid for batteries on the open market.

 

[jerry33]

The final state of play may be humans drive for pleasure, on tourist routes.

Tourist routes are where you really want FSD because you can watch the scenery rather than the road. The Dallas Zoo had a drive-thru Christmas light event. The driver had to watch the car in front and hardly ever saw any lights. (The other thing the driver had to do was to keep turning off the lights which kept going on automatically--off should be OFF.)

 

[petit_bateau]

Although Tesla is 23% of the market share on that list, it's closer to 40% of the battery usage. Popular cars like the Hong Guang Mini by Siac has a battery pack size of 10kwh. I3 from BMW has battery size in the 40s while egolf/zoe are in the 50s. Tesla's average is in the 70s with their given mix.

I think 40% is a bit high. I calculate 30.4% is Tesla's share of battery use in BEV+PHEV. There is another ~3% used in HEV so Tesla's total vehicle mkt share by battery use is perhaps 29%.

It will be interesting to see if Roadrunner / 4680 can move the dial significantly on the nickel constraint as that affects the higher-end BEV manufacturers (of which Tesla is the greatest exemplar, chased by VAG). At the moment there are about 2.5m tonnes of nickel mined each year, and most of this goes into various forms of steel, with about 175k tonnes for all batteries so probably 100k tonnes into cars, and 65k tonnes into computers and consumer electronics (I am struggling to get very good data on exactly how to break this down). Ramping that nickel production is a hard needle to shift, so decreasing the nickel loading in the 4680 cell is important. Otherwise Tesla will not be able to launch significant Semi production, and also Tesla will find its higher specification nickel-loaded cars increasingly squeezed by LFP at the bottom end. Unless - hopefully - LFP performance can be improved to the point where it is suitable across a fuller range of higher performance (longer range) vehicles.

 

[petit_bateau]

Does anyone have a decent, verified breakdown of WHERE teslas batteries come from? Even as an attentive investor, I'm really not sure. I know they have gigafactory nevada, and thats a deal with panasonic, where I assume 100% of the factory output goes to Tesla, and I know they also have this new pilot line for the 4680s which is (as I understand it) in freemont, but if you put a gun to my head and asked me to explain how this breaks down in terms of percentage of batteries consumed... I'd have no idea.

And I assume GF China is making its own batteries, but again... no idea.
Frankly this is an area where I would like to see tesla take on MORE vertical integration. I don't want them to be outbid for batteries on the open market.

See my Storage stuff - Page 7 - The Lemon Fool which I think answers your question. I have put those two pictures here on TMC but cannot find the right link for you.

 

[Singuy]

I think 40% is a bit high. I calculate 30.4% is Tesla's share of battery use in BEV+PHEV. There is another ~3% used in HEV so Tesla's total vehicle mkt share by battery use is perhaps 29%.

It will be interesting to see if Roadrunner / 4680 can move the dial significantly on the nickel constraint as that affects the higher-end BEV manufacturers (of which Tesla is the greatest exemplar, chased by VAG). At the moment there are about 2.5m tonnes of nickel mined each year, and most of this goes into various forms of steel, with about 75k tonnes for all batteries so probably 100k tonnes into cars, and 65k tonnes into computers and consumer electronics. Ramping that nickel production is a hard needle to shift, so decreasing the nickel loading in the 4680 cell is important. Otherwise Tesla will not be able to launch significant Semi production, and also Tesla will find its higher specification nickel-loaded cars increasingly squeezed by LFP at the bottom end. Unless - hopefully - LFP performance can be improved to the point where it is suitable across a fuller range of higher performance (longer range) vehicles.

30% sounds right if you add phev.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Although Tesla is 23% of the market share on that list, it's closer to 40% of the battery usage. Popular cars like the Hong Guang Mini by Siac has a battery pack size of 10kwh. I3 from BMW has battery size in the 40s while egolf/zoe are in the 50s. Tesla's average is in the 70s with their given mix.

I agree. Quick napkin math shows about half of the VW Group volume was comparable to Teslas in terms of battery size (ID lineup, e-tron, Taycan). Renault-Nissan cars are in the 40-60 kWh range, but they have only managed to sell 1/3 of Tesla's volume even though they were at much lower price points.

Cell supply is an issue for everyone, but the question is different: can we scale to 1M this year without completely starving our energy business vs. can we finally boost production to 100k+ per year for our main models?

BTW the biggest problem with the recent 80k Hyundai/LG battery recall is where the hell they are going to get those new packs without stopping the sales of the new refreshed Kona? (The new Ioniq 5 does not use LG cells AFAIK).