Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

This FSD tweet is good news. Q2 for subscription, would that mean potentially sooner for non beta roll out?

I'm just assuming, but I feel like the two have to be linked together at this point - FSD wide release and subscription. Also lines ups with Elon saying a new build will be coming out soon that is multiple step changes ahead but from the tweet sounds like it'll need a couple weeks of testing by the FSD beta testers to work out any bugs.

 

[JustMe]

Not likely part of the hive mind... but the unsaid thing is ham and result of a hog going to slaughter. Beware of overvalued SPACs I would think.

So... what you’re saying is... short hog futures?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If FSD costs $10K and represents a better value, my guess is the monthly subscription cost has to be more than $200.

$150/month for the first year makes no sense for Tesla IMO (again, if $10K flat represents the best value). It would be better to offer 15 or 30 day trial periods.

Yup I agree....Just keeping my expectations low in terms of what bets I want to make with Calls.

 

[lascavarian]

This FSD tweet is good news. Q2 for subscription, would that mean potentially sooner for non beta roll out?

Gene Munster is looking at the possibility of a late 2021 FSD deliverable. I would speculate (just me) that it would benefit FSD success to have a large pool of users getting some experience with it before it releases into larger betas. So it is probably a good thing.

 

[Knightshade]

If FSD costs $10K and represents a better value, my guess is the monthly subscription cost has to be more than $200.

$150/month for the first year makes no sense for Tesla IMO (again, if $10K flat represents the best value). It would be better to offer 15 or 30 day trial periods.

Average length of car ownership in the US is about 6 years.... (71.4 months to be specific) so the point where it's "technically" more than 10k, over 71 months, would be $140.85 a month.

Even more technically it's slightly lower since you're not paying 10k up front and thus paying later with "less valuable" inflated dollars.

So $150 month would, for average length of ownership, be a "worse" deal but not hardly by much (especially since you derisk totalling the car and not liking how your insurance handles FSDs value or something if you bought it).

$200/mo bumps you to 14.2k over 71 months compared to 10k for purchase, a roughly 42% premium ignoring inflation impact.

 

[StealthP3D]

As someone over invested in SPACs, I hope this tweet has a DOGE like effect.

Wasn't it Elon who cautioned about SPAC's recently? I believe it was and so I would expect this tweet would have the opposite effect to the one you want.

 

[Todd Burch]

To support this, just look at the lead designer's personality. Franz has got to be the definition of non-aggression. Elon has to approve Franz's designs and he is also not much of a peacock personality either.

Franz is definitely not aggressive.

 

[MC3OZ]

The next massive battery change I'd like to see for Tesla is a shift from using transportation appropriate cells to something simpler and heavier in stationary applications.

Elon is right, Lithium and Iron are relatively abundant.

Building a "RoadRunner" factory to make 4680 LFP cells doesn't seem overly expensive in terms of :-

• Capex
• Land
• Energy
• Staff

The limiting factor is probably the pool of staff with sufficient experience to help build the factory and get it up and running.

I fully expect some factories making 4680 LFP cells mainly for energy storage, and not co-located with a car factory.

Battery Day revealed the cost of building cell factories is lower, having specialized energy storage factory faculties close to raw materials and markets, makes some sense.

Rather than any technological break-through or new product, what is mostly needed is sufficient supplies of energy storage batteries at the right price.

At the right price, demand will always outstrip supply, this is a very easy market to tap. Raw materials are readily available, building new factories is not difficult, and the market will lap up all production

I don't think Lithium is a problem because there is a good chance Tesla's Lithium Clay method can be applied to other Lithium reserves.
We know iron is readily available for a reasonable price...

The cells can have steel cans, that will save a bit more money, and weight isn't a significant issue.

 

[WolfHero]

Ross Gerber is on live with Meet Kevin right now.

 

[MP3Mike]

I can't imagine they're gonna let HW2.x EAP owners get a HW3 swap for 1 month of subscription price- so seems like (for those needing HW upgrade anyway) requiring like a 12 month commitment would make sense.

A rumor has been floating around that there will be a $1.5-3k "install fee" for the FSD subscription. (I don't know if that would apply to everyone or only cars that have HW2.X and require an upgrade to HW3.)

 

[Beltsbear]

Average length of car ownership in the US is about 6 years.... (71.4 months to be specific) so the point where it's "technically" more than 10k, over 71 months, would be $140.85 a month.

Even more technically it's slightly lower since you're not paying 10k up front and thus paying later with "less valuable" inflated dollars.

So $150 month would, for average length of ownership, be a "worse" deal but not hardly by much (especially since you derisk totalling the car and not liking how your insurance handles FSDs value or something if you bought it).

$200/mo bumps you to 14.2k over 71 months compared to 10k for purchase, a roughly 42% premium ignoring inflation impact.

Not sure how Tesla will proceed. Charging $10,000 or $200 a month leaves a ton of money on the table from people like me who would definitely not buy it. I am very interested in FSD but the most I would pay is $7000 or $100 a month.

to me the answer is obvious, FSD needs to be separated into two products, one personal, one commercial. The commercial addition is actually going to be worth way more than $10,000, possibly as much as $50,000. The personal edition will drive you all day long , park itself etc. it will not drive unattended and pick up your mom from the airport.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Not sure how Tesla will proceed. Charging $10,000 or $200 a month leaves a ton of money on the table from people like me who would definitely not buy it. I am very interested in FSD but the most I would pay is $7000 or $100 a month.

to me the answer is obvious, FSD needs to be separated into two products, one personal, one commercial. The commercial addition is actually going to be worth way more than $10,000, possibly as much as $50,000. The personal edition will drive you all day long , park itself etc. it will not drive unattended and pick up your mom from the airport.

If I remember right, Elon did say something on like an earnings call or in a tweet conversation where he said they might do a la carte style in addition to offering a total FSD subscription. Anyone recalling the same thing that could back up what I think I'm remembering?

 

[ZeApelido]

Wasn't it Elon who cautioned about SPAC's recently? I believe it was and so I would expect this tweet would have the opposite effect to the one you want.

Don't make me break down Green Eggs and Ham for you!

At first The Cat [Elon] did not like Green Eggs and Ham [SPACs] but he never tried them!

After much persuasion and refusal, finally he decided he would at least try them.

And then he decided, "I do, I do like them!"

So Elon previously hated SPACs, but now he got a taste of that sweet, sweet, Starlink SPAC cash, and he decided he likes them.

It's 100% this.

Or 100% pigs / SPACs are gonna get slaughtered.

 

[AimStellar]

Eating dinner, minding my own business, when this scrolls across the bottom of the TV. My dinner is now on the floor...

 

[StealthP3D]

Franz is definitely not aggressive.
View attachment 641110

Thanks for this - the video doesn't lie!

Look at the timing of the planting of his driving leg and they way he lifts his rear leg in the middle of his power stroke.

I'm so glad Tesla got Franz, what a great guy compared to that Fisker snake. Because the personality of the designer becomes part of the car or truck.

 

[MC3OZ]

Not sure how Tesla will proceed. Charging $10,000 or $200 a month leaves a ton of money on the table from people like me who would definitely not buy it. I am very interested in FSD but the most I would pay is $7000 or $100 a month.

A cheaper monthly subscription might simply be capped at X miles per month, if you are on a cheaper subscription and need to do a road trip, you might need to top up to a higher priced subscription.

it seems like Elon and Tesla are very much focused on full FSD and Robo-Taxis, you might be waiting a long time for the cheaper option, or it may be a version of EAP, that has some, but not all of the functions.

Personally I upgraded to FSD this quarter, to beat any price increase.

I'll never sell the car, I'll give it to my daughter and/or use it as a Robo-Taxi, so I am expecting 10-15 years of FSD usage. All that can go wrong is a major accident.

 

[StealthP3D]

View attachment 641111

Eating dinner, minding my own business, when this scrolls across the bottom of the TV. My dinner is now on the floor...

How did you get a picture of it so quickly?

 

[CLK350]

Quiet day today, thought I'd bring this to your attention:

View attachment 640670
Liftoff

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1310591955374665729

I’ve worked hard to accurately tell the story of how SpaceX succeeded where so many companies failed. I spent a lot of time with Musk, who was expansive about those early years. But, equally important, dozens of the first SpaceX employees told me their stories.

Liftoff comes to life through the candid narratives of about a dozen of these key employees. Some names are instantly recognizable. There is Gwynne Shotwell, hired in mid-2002, to sell rockets and charge headlong at Musk’s side as they reshaped the launch industry.

Many SpaceX enthusiasts will also recognize Tom Mueller, the company’s first employee and architect of the Merlin engine. Mueller overcame a lot of odds even before he got to SpaceX. Likewise, Hans Koenigsmann is relatively well known today.

But for the first time Chris Thompson, the other member of the SpaceX founding team with Musk and Mueller, spoke publicly. He tells some hilarious stories about Pop-Tarts and pop art. And there is Tim Buzza, the launch director, who kept meticulous notes and shared them.

Then there are unsung heroes whose names are not well known. People like Anne Chinnery, Florence Li, Brian Bjelde and more. And there is Zach Dunn, who saved the company at 25,000 feet in the air, when all seemed lost. There's even a classic goulash recipe ... because reasons.

Writing Liftoff has been the privilege of my professional career. This is an amazing story, all the more remarkable for how far SpaceX has come from such hardscrabble beginnings. I can’t believe I got to tell it.

Cool! looking forward to piecing together all the tidbits gathered over the years - like Elon's decisive epiphany moment when Cantrell introduced him to a friend and witnessed the rocket they had built from scratch (tho it exploded on lift off) - if a bunch of engineers can build this with pocket change .. And for someone to do a similar Tesla Ashlee Vance 2.0.

 

[AimStellar]

How did you get a picture of it so quickly?

I cut the cord and only subscribe to YouTube TV these days. After running to the computer to check the stock, I came back to rewind and take the pic above.

Edit: The time that the info above scrolled across CNBC was 6:23pm EST.

 

[EVWatcher]

A cheaper monthly subscription might simply be capped at X miles per month, if you are on a cheaper subscription and need to do a road trip, you might need to top up to a higher priced subscription.

it seems like Elon and Tesla are very much focused on full FSD and Robo-Taxis, you might be waiting a long time for the cheaper option, or it may be a version of EAP, that has some, but not all of the functions.

Personally I upgraded to FSD this quarter, to beat any price increase.

I'll never sell the car, I'll give it to my daughter and/or use it as a Robo-Taxi, so I am expecting 10-15 years of FSD usage. All that can go wrong is a major accident.

Just realized if the nominal value of a tesla really does increase to some ridiculously high value based on potential robotaxi gains then not only is tesla the only company that can insure it - because they can sell you a new car and comp the FSD - but other insurance companies would probably never insure it or else risk ridiculous losses/high premiums.