Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

More Macro bad news I guess. Half of this bad news sounds SO made up.... yay-ya there is a flipper flopper.... yah... the market must go down.... wait Biden farted, down with the market. I think I want Trumps tweets back LOL.


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It's really stupid. I understand the mechanics of how this impacts the market but treating every company with the same broad brush is so lazy. It really highlights that the stock market is a gambling (or gaming) system, rather than an investment system.

 

[HG Wells]

It's really stupid. I understand the mechanics of how this impacts the market but treating every company with the same broad brush is so lazy. It really highlights that the stock market is a gambling (or gaming) system, rather than an investment system.

I Think you are wrong. It's just an entertainment system.

 

[capster]

Your post makes me realize how entirely late I am to the TSLA invest game. I’ve managed to largely avoid buying and selling stock throughout the first part of my adult life. But COVID made me really bored and I had no idea how exhilarating and fascinating Investing could be.

I’ve learned more on this thread and from @Papafox in 2 months simply by being curious and willing to make large enough purchase decisions to make me feel the danger. And because I don’t believe in other companies much, I’m willing to keep at it until I learn how to dance.

Case and point, I read an article a few weeks ago on seeking alpha about protecting my TSLA with options, and I thought.... “wow one day I’ll be able to do that without sucking,”

anyway, if you’ll excuse me, I have some dollar cost averaging calculations to do to see when my “learning experience” will recoup my lost profit. See you Warren buffets on the other side!

Maybe you are taking away the wrong lessons?

I have believed for many years that Tesla will be the Standard Oil of this century — it will be a behemoth. There is still a lot of time left in this century.

I started buying shares in 2015 and kept buying across the long SP plateau and even into last fall.

My biggest purchase was in the Winter of 2018. Those shares (and probably most of the rest) spent almost the entire next two years underwater. They were about halved in value in the Summer of 2019.

Yet I was confident of my investment thesis. Further, I was aware of the strength of my strategy: Buy when I could and hold on to my shares with all of my willpower.

I do not use options. The Street has too much power and speed as well as so many angles and tricks. This gives them a lot of advantages in the options arena. Besides, using options for protection dilutes your return over time.

Retail has the advantage of time. Patience is a superpower here.

For me, the strain of those underwater years temper the excitement of finally seeing the breakout. If I wanted thrills which I don’t particularly, I’d go somewhere else or just put small sums at risk.

Now that you’ve paid some tuition, I’d suggest you give your experiences more thought and see if you arrive at some different learnings.

 

[asburgers]

I Think you are wrong. It's just an entertainment system.

Ahh yes. The good ole cable news "I am not news. I am entertainment" disclaimer.

 

[Unpilot]

I'm just here for the hookers and blow.....wait... yikes wrong forum

 

[TheTalkingMule]

10yr rates spiking, 2yr and shorter continue their march toward zero. 10yr will overflow to shorter bonds at some point and all this will reverse. Too much cash, by a lot.

How to play this? Don't ask me!

 

[dl003]

I'm just here for the hookers and blow.....wait... yikes wrong forum

Please send me a message with a link to the correct forum. Thanks.

 

[asburgers]

Maybe you are taking away the wrong lessons?

I have believed for many years that Tesla will be the Standard Oil of this century — it will be a behemoth. There is still a lot of time left in this century.

I started buying shares in 2015 and kept buying across the long SP plateau and even into last fall.

My biggest purchase was in the Winter of 2018. Those shares (and probably most of the rest) spent almost the entire next to two years underwater.

Yet I was confident of my investment thesis. Further, I was aware of the strength of my strategy: Buy when I could and hold on to my shares with all of my willpower.

I do not use options. The Street has too much power and speed as well as so many angles and tricks. This gives them a lot of advantages in the options arena. Besides using options for protection dilutes your return over time.

Retail has the advantage of time.

For me, the strain of those underwater years temper the excitement of finally seeing the breakout. If I wanted thrills which I don’t particularly, I’d go somewhere else or just put small sums at risk.

Now that you’ve paid some tuition, I’d suggest you give your experiences more thought and see if you arrive at some different learnings.

I am on the other hand almost exclusively options + cash (future coffee shop sycophant fund) at the moment. The thing about options is that it can be less risky if you understand the mechanics of it. This takes years of formal and informal education + hard work, especially away from the twitter "join my newsletter" types who just learned about options a few weeks ago. I probably spend 100+ hrs a week reading/learning nowadays.

With stocks, you get to profit from one direction. With options, you can profit (and lose) from any directional movement (or none at all), volatility, time, etc...or even a combination of movements. This makes it much more difficult to understand. You basically get to fine tune your positions and sculpt your Sharpes the way you want - adding more dimensions to your trade. One obvious down side is that the bid-ask spread is way larger than stocks. It is also inherently more volatile from stocks. For instance, a 20% options/80% cash portfolio may have similar volatility to a 100% stock portfolio (over simplification). Stock up on Proton Pump Inhibitors or be prepared to name your ulcers.

Ross Gerber explains it pretty well in the Meet Kevin interview this week. The In The Money youtube channel is actually a decent layman's guide to options. I have heard that tastytrades is pretty good, but I haven't reviewed their videos yet.

I guess I can contribute to this forum by helping to answer specific questions from a purely technical standpoint - ask away if you guys want. I always like getting questions I don't know the answer to, which forces me to do some research and reinforce my knowledge.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Please send me a message with a link to the correct forum. Thanks.

Cybertruck

 

[Curt Renz]

Teslarati - today: Tesla shortens Model 3 delivery timeframe in end of quarter push

Excerpt:

Tesla has revised the delivery time frame for the Model 3 from 3-5 weeks to 2-4 weeks, indicating the company is ready to perform its regular End of Quarter push. After Tesla stock has underperformed through the first three months of the year, the automaker will be looking to outperform Wall Street and internal estimates, looking to boost its performance in the stock market.

 

[asburgers]

10yr rates spiking, 2yr and shorter continue their march toward zero. 10yr will overflow to shorter bonds at some point and all this will reverse. Too much cash, by a lot.

How to play this? Don't ask me!

So the 5Y is +0.055% right now vs 10Y at +0.062%. Both really at reasonable levels for a recovering economy imho. Fed should intervene if 5Y goes b-a-n-a-n-a-s as that is most relevant to mortgage re-finances. Although the recent home price spikes suggest they should let that rise, many people (mid-low income) on variable rates may not be able to afford payments if they allow it get too hot. This is a very difficult position.

I think the entire market is grumpy after we almost had a financial meltdown in late Jan and a smaller one last week culminated by the messy bond auction. IMO, people are confused as to whether there is a reflation trade, extent of fed intervention, impact of fiscal policy under Yellen. Feels to me that there's a lot of cash on the sidelines which can't stay there forever for normal inflation to devalue.

What is clear to me is that recent price actions on the stock has very little to do with the company.

 

[capster]

I am on the other hand almost exclusively options + cash (future coffee shop sycophant fund) at the moment. The thing about options is that it can be less risky if you understand the mechanics of it. This takes years of formal and informal education + hard work, especially away from the twitter "join my newsletter" types who just learned about options a few weeks ago. I probably spend 100+ hrs a week reading/learning nowadays.

With stocks, you get to profit from one direction. With options, you can profit (and lose) from any directional movement (or none at all), volatility, time, etc...or even a combination of movements. This makes it much more difficult to understand. You basically get to fine tune your positions and sculpt your Sharpes the way you want - adding more dimensions to your trade. One obvious down side is that the bid-ask spread is way larger than stocks. It is also inherently more volatile from stocks. For instance, a 20% options/80% cash portfolio may have similar volatility to a 100% stock portfolio (over simplification). Stock up on Proton Pump Inhibitors or be prepared to name your ulcers.

Ross Gerber explains it pretty well in the Meet Kevin interview this week. The In The Money youtube channel is actually a decent layman's guide to options. I have heard that tastytrades is pretty good, but I haven't reviewed their videos yet.

I guess I can contribute to this forum by helping to answer specific questions from a purely technical standpoint - ask away if you guys want. I always like getting questions I don't know the answer to, which forces me to do some research and reinforce my knowledge.

Maybe that’ll work well for you. In general, I’d say:

Kid others if you must, kid yourself if you’d lose.

And:

It’s hard to teach a young dog old tricks.

I wish you joy in your hunts.

 

[Rotte]

Ah, y'all remember this, a few years back? Short Sellers drove WSJ Reviewer Dan Neil to deletion of his Twitter

My favorite quote from Dan Neil's review at the time was he described the Model 3 as a "rainbow farting space ship". I named the my Model 3 "The RFSS"

 

[asburgers]

Maybe that’ll work well for you. In general, I’d say:

Kid others if you must, kid yourself if you’d lose.

And:

It’s hard to teach a young dog old tricks.

I wish you joy in your hunts.

Thanks? I don't quite compute. (pounds avocado toast)

 

[Cosmacelf]

It’s cool and all, but it seems like this was done at 2am in order to minimize the chances of disengagements since there’s no one on the roads.

Another interpretation is that they did it with minimal traffic so that they could get a more accurate time comparison measurement.

 

[asburgers]

Interesting to read

GameStop rocketed to notoriety this year after commentators on the Reddit forum r/wallstreetbets helped send the struggling video game store’s stock up almost tenfold in one week. The Reddit crowd was trying to combat enormous interest in GameStop by short sellers, who borrow stocks and sell them in the hopes of repurchasing them at a lower price later and turning a profit.

If a stock’s price goes up, investors who shorted it are on the hook for potentially limitless losses, and GameStop’s irrational rally forced those betting against its stock to cover their losses. At least one hedge fund, Melvin Capital, lost 53% of its fund in January alone, necessitating a $2.8 billion emergency cash rescue, while several others lost between 10% and 30%. Since then, GameStop has become shorthand for short investors getting “squeezed” as they scramble to cover their losses.

But before GameStop, there was Tesla. The electric carmaker has been short investors’ biggest targets—and most painful bet—since at least 2010, according to S3 Partners, a financial technology and analytics firm. Between 2017 and 2021, investors shorting Tesla lost $52 billion; when going back to 2010, the number is closer to $57 billion. GameStop short sellers, by contrast, lost an estimated $9 billion, according to data from US exchanges analyzed by S3.


That makes Tesla the worst-performing domestic short trade for the last decade or more, according to Ihor Dusaniwsky, S3 Partners’ managing director. Tesla’s stock price has risen 15-fold since 2017.

But all that has barely dampened investors’ appetite for wagering against Tesla. The electric carmaker remains one of the most shorted companies in the world with $39 billion in open short positions (the value of shares sold short with positions not yet closed or covered), representing 6% of the total shares available for trading (down from 20% in 2020). That’s three times more than short positions against Apple, its nearest contender.

There’s a saying in Silicon Valley popularized by fellow billionaire Peter Thiel: “Never bet against Elon Musk,” Tesla’s chief executive. But for Wall Street, there’s always money to be made (and lost) betting against Tesla’s success.

It was reported that Melvin lost up to $16B of its $23B AUM or thereabouts. That trade really changed the market as you see short sellers close out positions real quick after they sense an attack from retail compounded by other institutions with momentum strategies. Case in point - RKT this week (and to a lesser extent - UWMC). That was a brief two day affair. The interesting thing about RKT is that the company announced a special dividend (arguably targeted at the shorts).

 

[Nocturnal]

Elon Musk: Tesla Will Soon Launch Updated FSD Beta, Increase Rollout (insideevs.com)

Tesla should go ahead and let people buy into early access. Why not? (with some approvals) Extra revenue and anyone crazy enough to pay for early access for something they already paid for is likely to be very kind to the product. Of course I don't know anyone crazy enough for that so... *whistles nonchalantly*

I'm just here for the hookers and blow.....wait... yikes wrong forum

DM me.

 

[GOVA]

Maybe you are taking away the wrong lessons?

I have believed for many years that Tesla will be the Standard Oil of this century — it will be a behemoth. There is still a lot of time left in this century.

I started buying shares in 2015 and kept buying across the long SP plateau and even into last fall.

My biggest purchase was in the Winter of 2018. Those shares (and probably most of the rest) spent almost the entire next to two years underwater. They were about halved in value in the Summer of 2019.

Yet I was confident of my investment thesis. Further, I was aware of the strength of my strategy: Buy when I could and hold on to my shares with all of my willpower.

I do not use options. The Street has too much power and speed as well as so many angles and tricks. This gives them a lot of advantages in the options arena. Besides, using options for protection dilutes your return over time.

Retail has the advantage of time. Patience is a superpower here.

For me, the strain of those underwater years temper the excitement of finally seeing the breakout. If I wanted thrills which I don’t particularly, I’d go somewhere else or just put small sums at risk.

Now that you’ve paid some tuition, I’d suggest you give your experiences more thought and see if you arrive at some different learnings.

IMO, this should be a mandatory read for so many new investors, especially TSLA ones.

Many had gone through hell (see highlighted sentences to see when)

Many could not take it sold and quit. Many keep all their shares intact. It is your call people. Just don't whine about it every day.


When that Twitter dude said that "he is quitting his long (sic) (18 months) position" my respect went to -10 for him.
Some still bring him as an example of something and quote his agendas here.

LOL

 

[Cosmacelf]

WSJ: Tesla Technology Is 5 Years Ahead of VW ID.4, a ‘slightly underbaked strudel’

The WSJ article was paywalled, but this is a good summary.

Car columnist for The Wall Street Journal Dan Neil tested the Volkswagen ID.4, vaunted by the manufacturer itself. In his opinion, Tesla should not worry about this car as a real rival, because the technology of the Californian company is five years ahead

Imagine if VW had started work on ID.3/4 back in 2014 instead of working on emissions cheating. That must rank as one of the most expensive corporate mistakes of all time.

After reading the WSJ article (Volkswagen ID.4: Should Tesla Worry About This New Electric Rival?), he didn't throw that many darts at the ID4. It is slow, has a bad UI, buggy software, and expensive for what you get. On the plus side, they finally have OTA updates.

 

[asburgers]

This IBKR article is interesting showing how many are happy to see ARK fail.

Ark of Schadenfreude - Traders' Insight

A key takeaway for readers is that this motif is not unique amidst bull markets. Those of us who have been involved in investing for a long time remember other examples of funds that similarly captured the public’s imagination. They could seemingly do no wrong, posting stellar performance and making stars out of their managers before ultimately flaming out. The example from the late ‘90’s bull market was the Janus 20 Fund, which was known for having a significant number of winners amidst its limited set of holdings. At some point the winning became self-fulfilling. As the fund attracted more money and more attention, other investors would follow them. That created a positive feedback loop which worked spectacularly until the market peaked. At that point, the fund’s concentration became a curse, with traders gaming the outflows in the manner described above. During that fund’s run, I learned about the Manhattan Fund’s experience in the 1960’s. It was started by Gerry Tsai, a star Fidelity fund manager in 1965, grew spectacularly through 1968, when Mr. Tsai sold his interest in the fund complex, only to collapse by 90% in the following year.