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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
asburgers
Sell order in at $8008.5
ARK Market Update Webinar Notes
Auntie Cathie:
Is the 40 Y Bond Bull Market At Risk?
- Would not be surprised to see 3% on LT yield
- Bond spreads (Corp vs Treasury) is low by historical standards = corp bond holders are satisfied Fed will continue to support low int rate environment and economy remains strong
- The more that investors believe that innovation is here, then corp bond yields may have more problems
- Underlying deflationary factors will support treasuries but not corp bonds
- Easy money days are over in bonds: move back to 8-10% rates is destructive
Is inflation going to be a problem?
- In the next few months, because prices were falling last year due to COVID, CPI could approach 4% ("Base Effect")
- ARK and Fed believes that inflation will dissipate
- Deflationary forces accumulating: 1) Good deflation - innovation 2) Bad deflation - companies which did not invest enough in innovation with short horizons (companies who leveraged to buy back shares)
- For every cumulative doubling of EV produced, battery costs (biggest component) will decrease by 28%
- Auto prices will decrease over the next few years with EVs being cheaper than ICE
- Velocity of money continued to fall as people began to save more (fear of economy after '08/'09). High saving rates + deferred goods purchases = deflationary
Is the Equity Bull Market At Risk?
- If ARK is correct about bonds, there will be a bifurcation: 1) Companies in harm's way will suffer 2) Innovative companies will probably be fine
- Two sectors leading way has highest multipliers: 1) Housing 2) Discretionary Spending (Leisure, Hospitality)
- Recent severe rotation into value stocks: surprised how well innovation stocks performed
- Rotation started in Q4 but just took off in the past few weeks with interest rates
- Bull market broadened out into value (similar to 2016) is healthy and becoming stronger
- Interest rates are a concern, however Cathie believes that the market never priced in 1-2% LT yields (the way they know this is every time S&P P/E ratio moved into 20/25x range, market sold off - suggesting investors used normalized int rates and never gave market credit for low rates)
- Suggests 4-5% rate priced in, which is in line with GDP growth
- Thinks true normalized int rate is closer to 3% (~33x P/E ratio)
Money Market Funds
- MMFs are higher today than '08/'09 when everyone was rushing into cash
- Have started falling but have turned back up due to risk off environment
- Lots of cash on the sidelines: if right on Bull market broadening out, then feeling pretty good about equity bull market
- Stock selection is key
Auntie Cathie:
Is the 40 Y Bond Bull Market At Risk?
- Would not be surprised to see 3% on LT yield
- Bond spreads (Corp vs Treasury) is low by historical standards = corp bond holders are satisfied Fed will continue to support low int rate environment and economy remains strong
- The more that investors believe that innovation is here, then corp bond yields may have more problems
- Underlying deflationary factors will support treasuries but not corp bonds
- Easy money days are over in bonds: move back to 8-10% rates is destructive
Is inflation going to be a problem?
- In the next few months, because prices were falling last year due to COVID, CPI could approach 4% ("Base Effect")
- ARK and Fed believes that inflation will dissipate
- Deflationary forces accumulating: 1) Good deflation - innovation 2) Bad deflation - companies which did not invest enough in innovation with short horizons (companies who leveraged to buy back shares)
- For every cumulative doubling of EV produced, battery costs (biggest component) will decrease by 28%
- Auto prices will decrease over the next few years with EVs being cheaper than ICE
- Velocity of money continued to fall as people began to save more (fear of economy after '08/'09). High saving rates + deferred goods purchases = deflationary
Is the Equity Bull Market At Risk?
- If ARK is correct about bonds, there will be a bifurcation: 1) Companies in harm's way will suffer 2) Innovative companies will probably be fine
- Two sectors leading way has highest multipliers: 1) Housing 2) Discretionary Spending (Leisure, Hospitality)
- Recent severe rotation into value stocks: surprised how well innovation stocks performed
- Rotation started in Q4 but just took off in the past few weeks with interest rates
- Bull market broadened out into value (similar to 2016) is healthy and becoming stronger
- Interest rates are a concern, however Cathie believes that the market never priced in 1-2% LT yields (the way they know this is every time S&P P/E ratio moved into 20/25x range, market sold off - suggesting investors used normalized int rates and never gave market credit for low rates)
- Suggests 4-5% rate priced in, which is in line with GDP growth
- Thinks true normalized int rate is closer to 3% (~33x P/E ratio)
Money Market Funds
- MMFs are higher today than '08/'09 when everyone was rushing into cash
- Have started falling but have turned back up due to risk off environment
- Lots of cash on the sidelines: if right on Bull market broadening out, then feeling pretty good about equity bull market
- Stock selection is key
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I'm going to go take a nap now. Someone let me know if anything happens.
I'm pretty happy. Back around these levels earlier this year, I sold OTM covered calls at my retirement exit level for Jan '23. In the past few trading days, I bought back or coverted 80% of them into debit spreads.
This is crazy. This dip and rise may let me leanFIRE later this year on "boring" assets. How am I supposed to have a mid life crisis of I'm out of the work force before then?
This is crazy. This dip and rise may let me leanFIRE later this year on "boring" assets. How am I supposed to have a mid life crisis of I'm out of the work force before then?
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Is the best part of making a little bread just watching your dough rise? 
Gotta say there's been no loafing in that department today.
Gotta say there's been no loafing in that department today.
asburgers
Sell order in at $8008.5
Ark Webinar Part 2:
Research Spotlight Nick (Connection to Linear TV):
- Consumers forced to spend more time in front of screen
- Streaming services have more to offer than linear TV accelerated by pandemic ("Waterfall Moment")
- Number of linear TV will be cut in half this year to levels not seen in 40 years
- Advertising will shift to more efficient digital platform (50% decrease in linear TV advertising)
- Similar to after '08/'09 print advertising endured years of double digit decline moving to linear TV advertising
- NFL, MLB, and NHL could cut ties with major networks as early as this year
- ROKU: More reach than linear TV and growing
- This is a global story. ROKU, DIS, AMZN, etc.
Research Spotlight Nick (Connection to Linear TV):
- Consumers forced to spend more time in front of screen
- Streaming services have more to offer than linear TV accelerated by pandemic ("Waterfall Moment")
- Number of linear TV will be cut in half this year to levels not seen in 40 years
- Advertising will shift to more efficient digital platform (50% decrease in linear TV advertising)
- Similar to after '08/'09 print advertising endured years of double digit decline moving to linear TV advertising
- NFL, MLB, and NHL could cut ties with major networks as early as this year
- ROKU: More reach than linear TV and growing
- This is a global story. ROKU, DIS, AMZN, etc.
asburgers
Sell order in at $8008.5
Would you like your alarm set at 6 or 7 Gordons?
GrandEnigma
Member
Some bankrupt video game store is outperforming TSLA today, TSLA needs to try harder.
Last edited:
dgodfrey
Member
Based on todays performance, did I miss a Gordon Johnson hit piece on "no demand, no profit"?
Maybe Craig Irwin was filling in while Gordo was on vacation.
Maybe Craig Irwin was filling in while Gordo was on vacation.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I'm feeling pretty good about converting all my IRA shares 4:1 from shares into $600 strike Dec 17 calls last week (SP around 560 at the time)
Same thing I did day S&P was announced and it worked pretty well..... I did exit a LITTLE before the top on that one, but still almost doubled the amount in the account.
Right now could sell and convert back to shares for about 20% more shares that I held in there a week ago, but these have a lot more time on em than the inclusion play calls did.
Still, I probably ought to at least HAVE an exit target in mind... curious if anyone else has any thoughts?
It did do a good job reminding me just how differently tax advantaged account moves are though- I'd have loved to do this in my cash account but the tax consequences would've been fairly painful both in cap gains and resetting holding dates)... I mean I did add some calls there, but nowhere near as much ability to leverage up with the shares themselves kinda locked in.
Same thing I did day S&P was announced and it worked pretty well..... I did exit a LITTLE before the top on that one, but still almost doubled the amount in the account.
Right now could sell and convert back to shares for about 20% more shares that I held in there a week ago, but these have a lot more time on em than the inclusion play calls did.
Still, I probably ought to at least HAVE an exit target in mind... curious if anyone else has any thoughts?
It did do a good job reminding me just how differently tax advantaged account moves are though- I'd have loved to do this in my cash account but the tax consequences would've been fairly painful both in cap gains and resetting holding dates)... I mean I did add some calls there, but nowhere near as much ability to leverage up with the shares themselves kinda locked in.
You did...however ....Gordo is so insignificant now, they can't even get his GLJ research firm right and called it GLG...or maybe that is another oil shill research company? DBA maybe? Who knows???
Tesla (TSLA) Could Be Misleading Clients About Promises for Level-5 Self-Driving Capabilities This Year - GLG Research
GLG Research analyst Gordon Johnson said Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) may be misleading customers regarding its promise of Full-Self-Drive (FSD) capabilities this year.Johnson said despite claims from Tesla on...
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Why that’s AWESOME! If I only lost 33% on the way down, but made 50% on the recovery, I’m makin’
!! I knew HODL was the best strategy!It’s look like we are doing the GameStop clone. This is one in a lifetime chance to damage the stock market shorts for good so we can invest successfully for our family and our children. Every time Market go up for one day, the shorts attack the very next day because all buyers have bought their shares, so no one is around to protect the share price.
So dear Tesla comrades: the shorts have been shorting all over the market, particularly the EV stocks. They are vulnerable for consistent buying because they have to buy back borrowed shares at higher price. Tell everybody to keep fighting for this final battle.
Good luck to all. Cheers
So dear Tesla comrades: the shorts have been shorting all over the market, particularly the EV stocks. They are vulnerable for consistent buying because they have to buy back borrowed shares at higher price. Tell everybody to keep fighting for this final battle.
Good luck to all. Cheers
GrandEnigma
Member
Or maybe whatever the oppsite of more damage is.
Tesla EVs, Energy and storage will be booming with the latest Biden's emergency climate change speech on Wed Jan 27.
EV battery is the most expensive and critical for EVs, so Tesla have invested in Lithium and Nickel mining. There are many new 4680 battery plants
A New battery cell factory in the Bay Area. Even though it is a pilot plant, its capacity is large enough that it would be in the top 10 battery cell factories on earth despite being a pilot plant. The next new 4680 battery cell factory in Berlin will be the LARGEST in the world.
Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool
EV battery is the most expensive and critical for EVs, so Tesla have invested in Lithium and Nickel mining. There are many new 4680 battery plants
A New battery cell factory in the Bay Area. Even though it is a pilot plant, its capacity is large enough that it would be in the top 10 battery cell factories on earth despite being a pilot plant. The next new 4680 battery cell factory in Berlin will be the LARGEST in the world.
Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool
Lol! And someday, we will split again.Bought 590 strikes yesterday that I unloaded in the 620s. Yeah, made double my money, but goddamn, how come every time I sell anything on this stock it continues to go up exponentially and every time I hold it drops 30 points again....
Guess I should have closed those covered calls yesterday.
This is why you have long term accounts where you HODL and nothing else.
Yeah.
We going to hit 800 tomorrow?
Rejected breaking resistance trend line on the qqq 
. See if we retest again.
. See if we retest again.
Please ping us before you sell anything else.Bought 590 strikes yesterday that I unloaded in the 620s. Yeah, made double my money, but goddamn, how come every time I sell anything on this stock it continues to go up exponentially and every time I hold it drops 30 points again....
Guess I should have closed those covered calls yesterday.
This is why you have long term accounts where you HODL and nothing else.
Yeah.
We going to hit 800 tomorrow?
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