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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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TLDR. I like to joke that it's not that I think I'm so smart, it's that so many other people are just really dumb. Elon makes me feel really dumb.



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That comment was first made to me when on an undergraduate linguistics class my friend and I had "A's" while the rest of the class had "F's". Bizarre, and my friend said that.

In fact the issue, in my opinion, is not intelligence at all. After all there is virtually no correlation between very high IQ and any type of accomplishment in life. Fundamentally an IQ test is a mature of capacity of analogies and cultural inference.

In our context as investors we should not be thinking so much about Elon Musk himself as about his capacity to attract and develop the talent and disciplines that will enable Tesla to continue to thrive. That Elon is an excellent engineer who multi-tasks and works so diligently that he sometimes appears to be crucial in all things; That he is not. He is the chief enabler, the challenge of convention and the driver for excellence in everything engineering. It is that human capability that Elon attracts and retains that enables everything from online mapping, retail bank disintermediation, reusable rockets and Tesla.

All that seems like genius and maybe it is. The share value, though, is not so simple as that. It comes from the innovation and technical advances brought about by thousands of people. We know the names of perhaps dozens of them.

Sound long term investment value exceeds a single person, crucial though one person may have been. Tesla can and will thrive if Elon departs. It will be challenging, to be sure, but nonetheless will happen.
Candidly, the man who chose Gwyinne Shotwell, Jerome Guillen, Franz von Holzhausen and JB Straubel can thrive nicely without any one person including Elon himself. The company has been built to last. Most companies would not succeed so well if someone like, say, JB, leaves. Tesla and SpaceX both do.

Clearly key person insurance is a Good Thing in some cases, and this is one of those. However, the genius of Elon might well be that he's built for the future of his children and beyond.

Were it otherwise I would not want to HODL.
As it is we just have had an excellent buying opportunity.
 
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Yas! Consumer purchase only went up 0.4%, not higher than expected. 10 year bond yield tanking.

It's sad that tech sector is rooting for a bad economy. It's like the twilight zone.
That's just the narrative. Big auction today at mid-day and the yield was simply too attractive. As crazy as the sounds.

Foreign investors looking at .01% elsewhere were looking forward to 1.6%. I think we'll see some major repricing after this auction.
 
I feel like that would be a tri-motor cyber truck with full auto-pilot and a fifth wheel attachment, pulling an existing RV trailer.
... pulling a Tesla adapted RV trailer with Solar and PowerPak installed so it can share battery with Cybertruck to extend towing range.
Some have even speculated on a CyberTrailer having a Tesla motor so it can help on uphills, take advantage of regenerative braking, etc.
 
I feel like that would be a tri-motor cyber truck with full auto-pilot and a fifth wheel attachment, pulling an existing RV trailer.
5th wheel trailers aren't well suited to CT with its raised rear vault wings (interferes with the gooseneck on tight turns). Vault wings are part of the structure too, so they can't be removed trivially.

Lots of mil-grade camping trailers in Oz w/o 5th wheels, though:

4db77e5904f18f6f9a8bb1365bab5cc5.jpg
 
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That's just the narrative. Big auction today at mid-day and the yield was simply too attractive. As crazy as the sounds.

Foreign investors looking at .01% elsewhere were looking forward to 1.6%. I think we'll see some major repricing after this auction.
Perhaps the news we need to get qqq to blast past the resistance trend line and get out of this correction. It's looking very likely today vs a hour ago.
 
Perhaps the news we need to get qqq to blast past the resistance trend line and get out of this correction. It's looking very likely today vs a hour ago.
I think that's exactly it. If the auction goes well, which it almost certainly should, then the anti-tech rotation fully reverses. 1pm or 2pm?
 
Short interest decreased from the period 02/12/2021 (share price $811) to 02/26/2021 (share price $675).
The short amount also decreased in this period.
  • Shares shorted from 47.690.000,00 to 44.000.000,00
  • Float shorted from 6,20% to 5,72%
  • Amount shorted from $38.676.590.000,00 to $29.700.000.000,00
During this period and the falling of the share price the shorts were able to reduce their exposure a bit.

View attachment 643260

Does not compute. It seems to show that short-sellers are slowly becoming smarter with time.

This could make an interesting case study in evolution and natural selection in financial markets. You need money/credit to short a stock. It appears TSLA short sellers are becoming a rare breed but may be getting slowly smarter over time as only the ones with money left can short. :cool:
 
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5th wheel trailers aren't well suited to CT with its raised rear vault wings (interfere with the gooseneck on tight turns). They are part of the structure too, so they can't be removed trivially.

Lots of mil-grade camping trailers in Oz, though:

4db77e5904f18f6f9a8bb1365bab5cc5.jpg
tesla semi will be the perfect gooseneck 5th wheel puller; and the range!
I’ve got permission from wifey...once my brokerage hits 7 digits with a number greater than 1 in the first position.
 
I'd be very comfortable if we close above $720 today and consolidate in the 700's for a couple weeks before before resuming our assault on $900.
There were 1.323 M open options contracts reported this morning for next Friday's expiry (March 19, 2021). This is a huge volume of open contracts, about 3.5x the volume for this Friday's options expiries.

BTW, there were 1.366 M open contracts on the morning of Fri, Dec 18, 2020 (day of the TSLA S&P 500 addition, with over 140 M+ shares traded at the closing cross (4 pm).

Max pain will be a thing next week. But again, on Dec 18, 2020 max pain was reported at $560 that morning, then we closed at $695 so LOTS can happen when there's motivated buyers afoot (but it won't be boring). :p

Cheers!
 
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