Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anthonyj]

Do we think TSLA will react similarly to the Model 3 reveal for the Model Y reveal?

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Yeah I can see it hitting $269 5 days later. We live in upside down world now

 

[sparcs]

Most ICE owners won't switch to EV without a test drive. Period. Not offering ordinary test drives is an incredibly stupid idea and affects more potential buyers than you may think.

Tesla never indicated that test drives were disappearing. They were closing stores, not test drives.

The problem for Tesla is they likely hadn't developed alternative methods for test driving in the face of closing these stores. Probably one of the many reasons why this whole plan was rolled back/slowed down.

I know I wouldn't buy a Model Y without a test drive, but i'm sure by then Tesla will have developed some lower cost method for doing so without all that overhead of a store.

 

[printf42]

One thing that I have not seen enough discussion is Tesla's competitor in China: NIO. Stock price has been devastating the last few trading days (dropped from 10.5 to ~6.7) due to company's change of direction of NOT building their own assembly factory. Is it a pure coincidence with Tesla's announcement of the SR $35k M3?

You need to listen to their first earnings call.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
To me they were the most promising EV start up in China, but, they are just in denial of recent Tesla M3 and M Y development.

 

[RyanT]

Tesla never indicated that test drives were disappearing. They were closing stores, not test drives.

The problem for Tesla is they likely hadn't developed alternative methods for test driving in the face of closing these stores. Probably one of the many reasons why this whole plan was rolled back/slowed down.

I know I wouldn't buy a Model Y without a test drive, but i'm sure by then Tesla will have developed some lower cost method for doing so without all that overhead of a store.

I was thinking the same thing, but we were in looking at a model X this weekend and they were telling us they don't do test drives anymore. I was surprised that was the policy. A mobile team that does test drives (no store front needed) would be 100% ok by customers. I'm sure they'll sort it out.

 

[jbcarioca]

Hi folks.

Question: Now that Tesla is acquiring Transport companies, how long until they buy their first ship? Cheaper / faster than GF4/Benelux?

Inquiring minds want to speculate.

Cheers?

There is substantial precedent.
Hyundai Merchant Marine

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Good points and I hope you're right, we'll all see soon enough.



I don't think prior years are a great indication given Tesla hasn't had anywhere near the volumes in prior years that they had in 2018, so it's difficult to know what kind of trend the Model 3 will follow.



Your Norway numbers are not supported by that link you provided, unless I am reading it very wrong. The site shows just over 1,900 deliveries in 2019 to date. I don't know what the cut-off is for those numbers, but I'll be generous and say the end of Feb, so that's 8 weeks or 237 vehicles a week (not even close to 700). Norway is very EV friendly with more than 50% of all car sales being EVs, but yes has a low population of about 5 million people.

I think it would be very hard to extrapolate European sales from Norway's sales, but if we take your 3.5x Norway as the baseline (I think it might be a little higher than that), you're still looking at under 1,000 deliveries a week, or less than 10,000 in total sales when including U.S. per month, which is still only 50 - 60% of Q3's average.

I'm not hating on the company, I own the car and the stock, and I'm worried. Last night's tweet and reversal hasn't made me more confident.

Man, instead of being worried, you should really try to get more info and get your head cool.

100 per day for Norway is current delivery rate. You can’t just divide 1900 by 8 weeks to get 230/week. There are no delivery in January and Tesla is gradually delivery inch more every week. Seriously man, if you are a TSLA investor, you should not know so little.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla never indicated that test drives were disappearing. They were closing stores, not test drives.

This.

To me the main point was - sales are now 100% online - so they won't have "stores" where sales people sell a car and get commission / bonus. BTW, I wasn't even aware there was such a thing with Tesla until this news !

Galleries, service centers and test drives will continue.

The "rollback" is only in terms of how many stores will close instead of turning into a gallery. Looks like fewer stores will close - so they will have a lot of galleries with fewer staff who do not get a comission to sell.

 

[ReflexFunds]

There is substantial precedent.
Hyundai Merchant Marine

For Elon, buying 100 trucks is a slippery slope to building his own electric transport ship and a global offshore supercharging network.

 

[jerry33]

AND model Y will eventually be something else for stores and galleries to display.

Also... if model Y is 10% bigger than model 3, How does the size of model Y compare to the size of model X?

It depends on what the 10% consists of. 10% increased volume, 10% bigger in each dimension, 10% bigger in the sum of the total dimensions. No way to tell until the unveiling.

 

[ZachF]

For Elon, buying 100 trucks is a slippery slope to building his own electric transport ship and a global offshore supercharging network.

Ultimately ending with P2P Starships and 24hr global delivery....

 

[ZachF]

It depends on what the 10% consists of. 10% increased volume, 10% bigger in each dimension, 10% bigger in the sum of the total dimensions. No way to tell until the unveiling.

Model Y will be the real money maker for Tesla. Mark my words.I bet they've designed it with lessons learned from the M3 and it costs less to manufacture than the 3 and they can charge more money for it.

Model 3 is good but people love their crossovers. If Elon thinks that the M3 has a global market of around 500k, then the MY is probably ~1m.

S3XY + Truck and Roadster takes Tesla to BMW size (2m in sales and $100 billion in revenue) by 2022-23, IMHO.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Model Y will be the real money maker for Tesla. Mark my words.I bet they've designed it with lessons learned from the M3 and it costs less to manufacture than the 3 and they can charge more money for it.

Model 3 is good but people love their crossovers. If Elon thinks that the M3 has a global market of around 500k, then the MY is probably ~1m.

I agree and I really hope we are right. I would love for Tesla to nail the MY ramp, and have it resonate with the buying public, for many reasons. It certainly would be a pivotal moment for the company (and its competition).

On another note, holy hell your new avatar is great. Love me some Fury Road references.

 

[davecolene0606]

Store intel:

1. Email this morning to employees prior to 8k clarification.
2. Never was all stores closing.
3. Redundant stores (more than one store in geographic location/redundant purpose I.e. SC + ) were the targets.
4. Sales compensation changed to no commission, but incentives for store volumes.
5. In store sales only on store inventory, all custom orders pushed to online.
6. Test drives available,once taken eligibility for 7 day/1000 drive deleted
7. If one has ever test driven no eligibility for 7/1000 test.
8. Stores position actively being re-evaluated based on traffic/inventory moved.
9.Delivery staff not cut.
10. Retraining offered in some cases.

Source: multiple folks at multiple locations some I know and are long term employees and some rando employees.

Hope it helps

Fire Away!

 

[KarenRei]

Ultimately ending with P2P Starships and 24hr global delivery....

24 hour? Starship is Earth-to-Earth in 30-60 minutes! Combine with Loop/Hyperloops for remote distribution..... Hmm, what's the fastest you could do it.... maybe 30 minute Loop/Hyperloop trip from the source to the nearest rocket taking your desired route, half hour cargo loading time, 30-60 minute flight, half-hour unloading, half-hour Loop/Hyperloop from the rocket to the destination... 3 hour point-to-point global delivery!

Yeah, we're talking way in the future

 

[Remus]

Do we think TSLA will react similarly to the Model 3 reveal for the Model Y reveal?

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nah, not really. Tesla is no longer a "story" stock and market has a "show me" attitude. Many investors want profit on the financial reports and upbeat guidance at the same time.

I think the Q1 and Q2 report would kill the "impending doom" narrative and lift the stock price a little bit. But I guess Tesla would put operational margin to market expansion, try to wave between slightly profit to slightly loss. that would keep the stock price low for years.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

When did the transaction for the truck company take place. Curious what the stock price was then.

 

[ZachF]

24 hour? Starship is Earth-to-Earth in 30-60 minutes! Combine with Loop/Hyperloops for remote distribution..... Hmm, what's the fastest you could do it.... maybe 30 minute Loop/Hyperloop trip from the source to the nearest rocket taking your desired route, half hour cargo loading time, 30-60 minute flight, half-hour unloading, half-hour Loop/Hyperloop from the rocket to the destination... 3 hour point-to-point global delivery!

Yeah, we're talking way in the future

Long, long, looonnng term it is assembled in orbit using solar power and metal from asteroids, and dropped right to your location.

 

[AudubonB]

It depends on what the 10% consists of. 10% increased volume, 10% bigger in each dimension, 10% bigger in the sum of the total dimensions. No way to tell until the unveiling.

This is along the rather unfortunate line that keeps squirming through my frontal cortex ever since first having read it...

New, Improved Tesla! Now, with 10% more!

 

[Sudre]

24 hour? Starship is Earth-to-Earth in 30-60 minutes! Combine with Loop/Hyperloops for remote distribution..... Hmm, what's the fastest you could do it.... maybe 30 minute Loop/Hyperloop trip from the source to the nearest rocket taking your desired route, half hour cargo loading time, 30-60 minute flight, half-hour unloading, half-hour Loop/Hyperloop from the rocket to the destination... 3 hour point-to-point global delivery!

Yeah, we're talking way in the future

LOL.

There goes the saved carbon footprint in delivery alone.
LOL

 

[mongo]

This is along the rather unfortunate line that keeps squirming through my frontal cortex ever since first having read it...

New, Improved Tesla! Now, with 10% more!

Tesla Y: we really do give you 110%*
*relative to the 3

Even better: Why is the Y better than the 3? This one goes to 11.