Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

Also, just so we're on the same page, I'm assuming the drivers will be the car owners, not employees of Tesla. The service would work in exactly the same way as a robotaxi network, just with the owner operating the vehicle. I don't see why you are against this

Because every other ridesharing service out there loses tons of money every quarter, to the tune of billions in annual losses- all while offering no benefits to drivers and poorly compensating them for their time on top?

Because the amount of HR and legal stuff involved differs significantly if you have an employee/contractor (a human driver) versus just revenue sharing the fare $ with the "owner" of the not-human RT?

Seems plenty of good reasons to think it doesn't make much sense.

 

[Beltsbear]

@Artful Dodger Post #36,716 Apr 5, 2019:

• Quarter mile in < 10 sec @ 145 mph in 'Plaid' model
• Bonus feature: "FSD track mode":
  • enabled for geofenced + approved tracks
  • Cams watch 'Christmas Tree' lights for countdown
  • cuts the green light with < 50 ms reaction time
  • self-drives complete race including collision avoidance
  • interior camera monitors passengers for safety
  • auto-return to pit lane parking
  • basically its an electric rollercoaster ride

The Christmas Tree start would be a huge advantage In drags and tracks.

 

[Cherry Wine]

You know, I hope, that you can sell covered calls underwritten by your LEAPS?

Yes - and I do!

 

[Beltsbear]

50M will never happen, unless you think Tesla achieves well over a 50% worldwide market share. At some point (even if it doesn't happen in the next couple of years), robotaxis will arrive and car ownership will level off and gradually decline.

Piper Sandler believes global auto sales will peak ~2030 and decline from there. They are probably accurate within 1-2 years.

I'll eat my hat if Tesla builds more than 10-11 total GFs.

We are at five GF now. We are certainly going to 10. I can see 15 by 2030.

 

[Mike Smith]

No, I gleaned that from Elon's statement (made 1 year after his statement that you quoted):

"we're going to focus on enabling the robotaxi system"​

TL;DR "focus" in this case means not working to develop an Uber-like ride hailing service.

Believe what you want.

I think they're planning on launching the human driven Tesla Network at the same time as they start subscription FSD. I'm very sure there will be human driven ride hailing before robotaxis. We'll see.

 

[Big Time]

The office furniture going into GF Berlin......Bullish. Would be nice to work at such a spiffy place

 

[OrthoSurg]

We are at five GF now. We are certainly going to 10. I can see 15 by 2030.

The total car production might cap once the ride hailing Transport as service replaces car ownership and cars start being used 90% of the time on the road instead of 90% of their lifespan in parking lots. There will be a balance reached at some point between car ownership for people who like to drive and own cars and people who use cars strictly for transportation. That inflection point might be before Tesla passes the 20M production milestone. We gotta ask Tony Seba.

 

[nativewolf]

Nobody commenting on Ark's new forecasts?

ARK’s Price Target for Tesla in 2025 is $3,000 Per Share

ARK’s 2025 price target for Tesla is $3,000. ARK’s bear and bull case suggest it could be worth $1,500 and $4,000 per share, respectively.

ark-invest.com

Interesting that they left out energy

 

[JRP3]

Nobody commenting on Ark's new forecasts?

Old news, go back a few pages.

 

[22522]

Today I encountered someone on the street who then happened to hop into their Model Y. I asked him how he liked it, and he started complaining about the "cheapness". No actual details though other than the rims got scratched.

Uh huh.

Then he claimed it wobbled at high speeds on the highway.

Uh huh.

Then he claimed "real competition" was coming from... then next Polestar

And... the BMW i4.

Me during this conversation:

View attachment 646349

Turns out he works for Google on their automotive software at kept referring to the Polestar car as the "Google Car".

Wtf is in the water in Mountain View?

There is a lane departure warning that shakes the steering wheel if you don't use the turn signal. A person who scratches rims may also not use their turn signals, or read the manual.

 

[Knightshade]

I like your scenario - seems sound.
A new country/location in 2021 would be *very* bullish.

Not sure how many factories they need to reach 20 million. Very hard to guesstimate. Lot of land in Austin.

Both the spatial (a factory like a CPU) and temporal efficiencies (faster than walking) of production Elon has has talked about optimizing on many occasions makes a huge difference re. wether they need only 5 meta-factories making 10 million each or they need 20-25 'normal' gigafactories instead, each making around 2 million units each.
(Making a wild assumption that 50 million vehicles is the undisclosed, long-term, steady state goal)

For context- AFAIK the current largest car making site is Hyundais putting out about 1.5 million a year in Ulsan on 1225 acres (5 factories on that site)

The largest single factory is VW in Wolfsburg, 70 million sq feet, producing ~815k vehicles a year. Also at the same plant, weirdly, they produce their own brand of currywurst.

The currywurst has an actual VW OEM part number (199 398 500 A) as do the several utensils they make (and ketchup).

In fact, production has soared in recent years, making the currywurst the most produced of ANY item with a VW part number.

In some years they produce more individual sausages than they do cars.

Volkswagen's currywurst factory: motoring's strangest production line | Autocar

We go behind the scenes in Wolfsburg to find out what goes into making Volkswagen’s biggest-selling product

www.autocar.co.uk

I'm sure I was going somewhere with this but the sausage thing totally derailed my train of thought.

 

[ZsoZso]

PREDICTION TIME- stock price end of day on Monday? Cathie wood versus 10 year bond yield... who will prevail? Name the end of day price or be lame!

694.20

 

[ninpb]

I'm also surprised that Ark's forecast left out the Semi, in fact, they didn't even mention they left it out.

Surely, this is going to be ramping up quickly. Why else would Tesla name Jerome Guillen as President of Tesla Heavy Trucking?

Does anyone have forecasts for Semi revenue from now till 2025?

I look forward to the euphoric +20% days in the near future that comes from semi and energy not being in the light until bam!

 

[buttershrimp]

I'll be lame.

I'll be lame.

I stole your answer didn’t I?

 

[Dutchie]

Just watched this interview with Ross Gerber. Great watch. Talks about various topics for instance about the Mach-E which he test drove “good Ford car, but still a Ford which is a car company”; Ark-invest “..not like a pizza but on;y having the toppings of a pizza in their portfolio.”

it is a bit of a sit but playing at higher speed it is very doable and entertaining

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

In some years they produce more individual sausages than they do cars.

Don't we all?

 

[MC3OZ]

The higher production capacity Tesla has when FSD is fully ready, the better.

That is why I can see Austin making Model 3 and/or 2 specifically for Robo-taxis.

That would be phase 2 at Austin after Model Y, Cybertruck and possibly the Semi.

Possibly Phase 2 will also include LFP 4680 cells at Austin.

IMO the timing is right, perhaps Phase 2 at Austin starting the middle of 2022, and first production from phase 2 the middle of 2023.
FSD seems to me getting closer, regulatory approval in some limited locations, by the end of 2203, would be a very optimistic projection.

Tesla can start phase 2 when they think FSD is ready to seek regulatory approval, and also ramp Model 3/2 in Berlin/Shanghai.

What I expect with Model 2 is lots of common parts with Model 3/Y with some key areas using cheaper parts.
Model 2 should be easier to build, hence able to ramp relatively quickly.

 

[juanmedina]

Does anyone have thoughts as to why some beta testers have videos that look amazing while some drivers have videos like this for the same version?

At least where I live I would not encounter that level of complexity when driving so I would assume FSD look good in some places and others not. Think of FSD in India.

 

[EVWatcher]

At least where I live I would not encounter that level of complexity when driving so I would assume FSD look good in some places and others not. Think of FSD in India.

I live within 40 minutes of there, as do a large proportion of US based tesla owners.

Which doesn't invalidate your point, but it certainly something to think about

 

[Dutchie]

I think you will be disappointed how little the market cares about Ark's bullish forecast.

I think last time made a report on Tesla was also during the weekend. The Monday following stock price went up by about 19%. Mind you Cathie Wood was not as known back then. I also don’t know if the jump was caused by the report. There could be other factors involved.