Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

It's kinda bad too, because now I will be thinking whether I want a 300 mile range Y or a 500 miles Y few years later(with battery lasting twice as long).

Now. You want one now so you can enjoy it if/until higher range battery comes. Duh.

 

[Artful Dodger]

As much as I want conversion to all EV's I don't see a path forward for most.
Even if they develop some secret battery sauce. They still don't have a nation wide fast charging network.

Yep their screwed.

Lol, all they have to do is admit Elon's right and join the Tesla Supercharger Network. But they'd rather not do that.

Yep their screwed.

 

[Fact Checking]

Most of the US went on Daylight Saving Time yesterday. Did you mean EDT (UT-4) or EST (UT-5)? In either case I don't see anything unusual.

I really meant EST (market time) 14:58 today: the price crossed $290 on a spike by 15:06 and volume increased ~3x from the slightly below average volume before, and sustained until 16:00.

Maybe a key technical level was breached and it could have just been the crossing of $290 and some short covering, but volume was too sustained IMO.

To me it looked like a news price reaction, but then I looked and couldn't find anything related, and macro was mostly quiet. Weird.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does anyone have any idea what happened around 14:58 EST that tripled the TSLA volume and caused much of the day's price increase?

There was no macro event near that time, no any TSLA related event in the news feeds. But something clearly happened. Mystery ...

@Cherry Wine informs us that there was a block buy for around $3.1M (~11K shares). That volume seem to run through the order book fairly quickly.

I was watching the SP at the time and commented on the spike.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

Elon
The World Inside Tesla Is Completely Different From The Media's Portrayal Of Tesla | CleanTechnica

CNBC: Moody's downgrades auto industry outlook from stable to negative on falling demand

Headlines and final two paragraphs are enough. Can anyone think of a company that's already invested in new transportation tech, including self-driving cars, connected cars and advanced safety features? What about zero emissions?

'Bout time for an upgrade, eh?

Moody’s downgrades auto industry outlook from stable to negative on falling demand

• 
  
  
  • Moody’s cut its 2019 growth forecast for worldwide light vehicle sales by more than half, saying they won’t totally recover from a slowdown in the latter part of 2018.
  • The threat of U.S. import tariffs and the United Kingdom’s potential exit from the European Union are also risks.
  • Global economic growth is expected to slow.

The industry is also faced with declining sales at a time when many companies are racing to invest in new transportation tech, including self-driving cars, connected cars, and advanced safety features.

Auto manufacturers also face ever more stringent emissions guidelines, which are forcing investments in hybrid and electric vehicles, and other options for passengers and freight.

i think this continuing drumbeat of struggling/declining ICE sales will be a key contextual element to an eventual TSLA breakout as the contrast will become ever starker over the course of the year. then as HW3 doo-dads & whatnots start creating additional buzz later this year, the market will start to hedge and think maybe some of the astronomical valuations ascribed to various self-driving startups should also be partially ascribed to TSLA. Then 2020 brings real-world head-to-head competition with the "Telsa killers" that are likely to prove out as kittens & the public votes what's what by what they buy. It all bodes well our favorite company & a sustained breakout at some unpredictable point this year or next...

 

[Fact Checking]

@Cherry Wine informs us that there was a block buy for around $3.1M (~11K shares). That volume seem to run through the order book fairly quickly.

I was watching the SP at the time and commented on the spike.

View attachment 385403

Interesting. The follow-up volume was MUCH higher than 11k shares though: ~1.5 million shares traded in the final hour, worth 400+ million dollars.

This is what caught my attention, and was trying to find the trigger.

Edit, maybe it was a late realization how Tesla positive the latest Moody's auto industry outlook for 2019 is:

Moody's downgrades auto industry outlook from stable to negative on falling demand​

Does anyone have the exact timestamp of when Moody's published the report?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Interesting. The follow-up volume was MUCH higher than 11k shares though: ~1.5 million shares traded in the final hour, worth 400+ million dollars.

This is what caught my attention, and was trying to find the trigger.

Jockeys positioning their horses for Friday's big race (come the Model Y reveal at 8 pm PDT on Thu the After-hrs session is finished).

I've got my tickets.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Edit, maybe it was a late realization how Tesla positive the latest Moody's auto industry outlook for 2019 is:

Moody's downgrades auto industry outlook from stable to negative on falling demand
Does anyone have the exact timestamp of when Moody's published the report?

Well BI published a story on the Moody's downgrade about 9 hrs ago, so those aren't the droids you're looking for (Obi-wan).

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Jockeys positioning their horses for Friday's big race (come the Model Y reveal at 8 pm PDT on Thu the After-hrs session is finished).

I've got my tickets.

Speaking of, I wonder when they’ll open reservations... I want to try to get in ASAP

 

[Curt Renz]

I really meant EST (market time) 14:58 today: the price crossed $290 on a spike by 15:06 and volume increased ~3x from the slightly below average volume before, and sustained until 16:00.

Maybe a key technical level was breached and it could have just been the crossing of $290 and some short covering, but volume was too sustained IMO.

To me it looked like a news price reaction, but then I looked and couldn't find anything related, and macro was mostly quiet. Weird.

Stock Market time (New York time) is now EDT, not EST. So I am assuming the times you posted are EDT. If so, heavier volume is not unusual during the final hour of regular trading. After studying the market throughout the day, it's the hour when many money managers (aka the smart money) choose to trade. It's also when many retail day traders are forced by margin requirements to unwind positions set up earlier in the day.

I'll assume you are describing the ramp-up in TSLA price and volume during the first quarter of the final hour of regular trading today. That could have been instigated by a well-heeled entity, that thinks it knows something, spreading out its buying over a number of minutes rather than in a single trade. That may have attracted others smelling an opportunity. It also may have involved day-trading short-sellers who were covering upon realizing that a lawyer's excited tweets about supposedly damaging revelations were resulting in only yawns.

 

[tinm]

Read this with John Oliver’s voice for increased enjoyment

I'll try my best, however, please keep in mind the following may only apply to my kafkaesque home country:

1. Shop for car, hit "buy" and sign sales agreement with Tesla.
   
   
2. Send sales agreement to your insurance company. It will take somewhere between 3 days to a week for them to prepare your insurance, which they'll confirm digitally or via mail.
   
   
3. (Optional: Meanwhile, you can arrange a loan or leasing plan.)
   
   
4. Wait somewhere from three weeks to three years for Tesla to deliver your car to a delivery center.
   
   
5. Tesla should then A) either mail you the car's legal and technical permits or B) they call you so you can pick them up from the delivery center. Mind you, the permits, not the car.
   
   
6. You then have to take the permits to your local insurer which happens to be an admission office. There, you hand over the car's legal and technical permit, your ID, confirmation of main residence and the prior confirmation of your insurer (Optional: Leasing contract). Oh, and ~$250 to legally register the car. Processing all of the stuff usually takes at least an hour.
   
   In return, you'll receive your number plate and a temporary driving permit – you'll receive the proper one within two weeks. This is non-refundable and irreversible no matter what.
   
   
7. Equipped with the number plate, you can now take delivery of the car you had to buy, insure and register in order to test drive. Hurray!
   
   
8. Turns out your wife doesn't like the white interior so she insists on returning it.
   
   
9. Being the good husband you are, you head back to your Tesla delivery center. In order to return the car, Tesla formally has to buy the car back from you. Both sides sign a sales agreement. You leave the car at the delivery center so your wife has to pick you up.
   
   
10. At this point, you bring everything from 6), the sales agreement from 9) to the admission office. This allows you to return the number plate and to de-register the car. This process only takes some minutes and is free.
    
    
11. (Optional: Cancel your leasing plan / pay back the loan including a hefty penalty fee.)

 

[tinm]

Actually, I don't recall that. But:

View attachment 385330

Note he said under $30,000, but I digress

 

[KarenRei]

Tim Bradish on Twitter

ED: Also LOL: "Elon Musk's Business Plan"

 

[Cherry Wine]

From SushiBallZ (u/SushiBallZ) - Reddit on reddit -- a mock-up based on the teaser. Looks pretty good in my opinion.

 

[aubreymcfato]

The spin is FUD, but I'd like some educated guess from the community here:
Briefing: Tesla Finance VP Quits

 

[Carl Raymond]

From SushiBallZ (u/SushiBallZ) - Reddit on reddit -- a mock-up based on the teaser. Looks pretty good in my opinion.

Wide child bearing hips are sexy. It’s Darwinian. Men attracted to that shape (see car pic) had a greater chance of their genes being passed on.

 

[AlMc]

The spin is FUD, but I'd like some educated guess from the community here:
Briefing: Tesla Finance VP Quits

Zach getting his own team in place or person upset with being overlooked for promotion with Deepak leaving?

 

[JRP3]

Wide child bearing hips are sexy. It’s Darwinian. Men attracted to that shape had a greater chance of their genes being passed on.

Women don't bear children with their hips...

 

[EVNow]

Lol, all they have to do is admit Elon's right and join the Tesla Supercharger Network. But they'd rather not do that.

Yep their screwed.

I've to wonder - if someone wants to use SuperCharger network, how much would Tesla charge per car - $2k ? Could be as much as the margin the OEM is getting for the car.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Women don't bear children with their hips...

OT
Hips are the outer pelvis. Baby passes through the inside of the pelvis. During childbirth the joints soften to allow this gap to expand.