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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I assumed you weren't generating enough and/or buying carbon free sources. Ok, in your case that is true then. Technicality comment rescinded.
Jack Rickard has some interesting theories as to what's going on as to why Maxwell has been getting capacity and longevity improvements (he's not sure that even they understand why they've been getting such good results). When you use a solvent-based binder, the solvent penetrates into every little crevase, and when the solvent is evaporated, it leaves the binder everywhere, creating a hindrance to ion migration, particularly after the formation of the SEI. The dry electrode tech however is based around a powder; it can't get into all of the tiny cracks. It's more like spot welding together the active materials. So you're leaving much larger channels that the electrolyte and ions can flow through.
That's his theory, at least. And it IMHO sounds quite reasonable.
Honestly, I know everyone loves to hype up every new tech, and I'm usually the first to throw cold water on it. But I really, really like what Maxwell has been doing. Remember that the cell property improvements are actually a sideshow to the main issue, which is production throughput relative to floor space and depreciation.
That's what Tesla is hungry for: cost reduction. But they may simultaneously end up with some superb cells as a result.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Whoa, you really need to read up on Maxwell. That video is a terrible source, as is that entire channel. Tesla is NOT switching to ultracapitors.
Maxwell is providing dry electrode manufacturing technology to Telsa. The benefits have been discussed extensively here at TMC.
Read the scientific papers Maxwell has published in the last year. Listen to their 2018Q3 conference call. It's all about the dry electrode technology.
Maxcells will provide Tesla with a proven initial 50% boost in gravimetric energy density. Further, Maxwell has demonstrated a pathway to a 100% increase. The new cells are cheaper to make, and last longer.
The +50% energy density alone enables the Model 2 (that's the common name for the pending $25K Tesla car). If current cell cost is $100/Kwhr, then 1st gen Maxcells could be produced in volume for ~$67/Kwhr (2nd gen falls to $50/Kwhr).
A smaller car has less mass and requires less bty, (ie: ~40 Kwhr vs ~50 in the Model 3 SR). Using Maxcell's will drop the cell cost from around $5K in 3SR to around $2.7K in the Model 2. Futher, if Tesla owns more of the IP, they'll get even lower costs vs this rough estimate.
Throw in the 2x life span and you're nearly half way to the spec needed to allow a $25K Model 2 to be profitable.
I do NOT expect Tesla to scrimp on safety or autonomy, but steel is pretty cheap, and EAP/FSD is optional (cost added above the base price) so there'll be some 'subsidy for safety' which should be roughly revenue neutral.
So THAT'S why Maxwell is a big deal. It enables the next tier of mass market vehicles, and improves the performance/profitability of all existing models. Like a Semi with 600 miles range.
Cheers!
Even the >300 W/kg demonstrated number is 20% better than current Tesla cells (247W/kg or so).
We're still waiting on anything to get published:
United States Securities and Exchange Commission v. Musk (1:18-cv-08865), New York Southern District Court
United States Securities and Exchange Commission v. Musk (1:18-cv-08865), New York Southern District Court
As much as I want conversion to all EV's I don't see a path forward for most.
Even if they develop some secret battery sauce. They still don't have a nation wide fast charging network.
Yep their screwed.
It's kinda bad too, because now I will be thinking whether I want a 300 mile range Y or a 500 miles Y few years later(with battery lasting twice as long).
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I believe under the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure Elon's lawyers they have until EST midnight (local court time) of the deadline day (March 11, today) to file the answer brief to the Order to Show Cause - but they'll probably not push the deadline to the last minute and will file it a few hours before midnight.
(Technically they could also ask for a deadline extension, but if they truly wanted that they'd have filed the request already.)
And I could also be wrong about all this.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Here's a better resource:
This is the RECAP mirror, if any Recap member uploads the Pacer document (automated via a browser add-on) then it's in the public domain. (Court documents have no copyright attached.)
You can download all the key documents there already, no need to pay the Pacer per page download fee (!).
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Carl Raymond
Active Member
I think we will see $600 within two years.
Jack Rickard has some interesting theories as to what's going on as to why Maxwell has been getting capacity and longevity improvements (he's not sure that even they understand why they've been getting such good results). When you use a solvent-based binder, the solvent penetrates into every little crevase, and when the solvent is evaporated, it leaves the binder everywhere, creating a hindrance to ion migration, particularly after the formation of the SEI. The dry electrode tech however is based around a powder; it can't get into all of the tiny cracks. It's more like spot welding together the active materials. So you're leaving much larger channels that the electrolyte and ions can flow through.
That's his theory, at least. And it IMHO sounds quite reasonable.
Honestly, I know everyone loves to hype up every new tech, and I'm usually the first to throw cold water on it. But I really, really like what Maxwell has been doing. Remember that the cell property improvements are actually a sideshow to the main issue, which is production throughput relative to floor space and depreciation.
One more reason to be optimistic about Maxwell is the simple fact that JB & Elon has decided to buy them, to the tune of a couple hundred million dollars.
After all, those two have heard a very large number of sales pitches for battery technology, that has to count for something. Even - or maybe especially - if the public is unsure of the exact details of Maxwell's technology.
Most of the US went on Daylight Saving Time yesterday. Did you mean EDT (UT-4) or EST (UT-5)? In either case I don't see anything unusual.
Nothing is going to advance by sudden leaps. It rarely ever does.
Will EVs get better in the coming years? You better believe it! Just like they did in the past couple years. But it's one of those things where, if you plan to wait for the tech to stop advancing... well, you're going to be waiting a long, long time
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