Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

Virtually no difference other than larger tires. To me both are just station wagons.

I suggest you get your eyes checked with an optomitrist. Either that or you must have a very poor sense of gemoetry.

 

[UncaNed]

This has been a key question for me. When do you think we will see $400?

When the SP goes up $110.00

 

[defc0n]

Why people keep thinking that Maxwell is some sort of magic bullet/panacea to increase battery capacity?

Per video someone posted in this thread previously,

It's not.

Ultracapacitors can be helpful in quickly releasing and absorbing the braking energy, which helps short time performance, but not in storing energy, since they only provide a small fraction of capacity compared to current cells:
View attachment 385348

So, Maxcells will be helpful for Roaster 2, but not for Model 2. And who decided it will be called 2?

The 2nd technology Maxwell has is about manufacturing efficiency, i.e. cost, but not battery capacity.

It isn’t the ultracapacitors that are relevant for battery capacity. It is their dry electrode tech that is supposed to provide increased energy density and lower manufacturing costs.

 

[Tslynk67]

Why people keep thinking that Maxwell is some sort of magic bullet/panacea to increase battery capacity?

Per video someone posted in this thread previously,

It's not.

Ultracapacitors can be helpful in quickly releasing and absorbing the braking energy, which helps short time performance, but not in storing energy, since they only provide a small fraction of capacity compared to current cells:
View attachment 385348

So, Maxcells will be helpful for Roaster 2, but not for Model 2. And who decided it will be called 2?

The 2nd technology Maxwell has is about manufacturing efficiency, i.e. cost, but not battery capacity.

The general consensus is that Tesla are acquiring Maxwell for their dry electrode technology, not their ultra-capacitors

Edit: only two minutes behind with this post, as opposed to 2 days / 2 hours over the weekend while I was catching up. This thread's a bitch to keep up with!

 

[JRP3]

Why people keep thinking that Maxwell is some sort of magic bullet/panacea to increase battery capacity?

Because their dry electrode process is.

 

[RobStark]

The former is true, but the latter doesn’t necessarily lead to less pollution. In my case, San Jose just switched to 100% carbon-free energy sources, so no matter how much I charge my car, it doesn’t change the amount of pollution.

O.T.

My local area is switching from Southern California Edison to Clean Power Alliance.

On TOU rates it is peak 29 cents per kWh 2pm-8pm for 100% renewable

But 3 cents per kWh from 10pm to 8AM on super off peak for 100% wind.

Prius Eco at 60 MPG is 5.5 cents per mile at local $3.34 per gallon.

Tesla is ~.6-.7 cents per mile.

 

[Krugerrand]

Your remark is based on the assumption that future Tesla customers (fishing in the ICE market) behave the same as previous ones (EV enthusiasts).

I strongly disagree:

1. Most ICE owners won't switch to EV without a test drive. Period. Not offering ordinary test drives is an incredibly stupid idea and affects more potential buyers than you may think.
   
   
2. The 1000mi / 7 days test offering is seen as a farce by most people – at least in Europe. Do you have any idea how much work it is to sort out all the required paperwork (state, insurance, etc.) to receive a freakin number plate? Beside the fact that this can take up to a week and cost $250-300?! Who the hell is willing to do that for a car they probably won't even keep?
   
   
3. People should test drive the top-of-the-line cars as an incentive to upgrade.

Couldn't care less for people paying 3% more for a $40k+ car, I'm sorry.

I made no assumptions. None. Zip. Zero.

Here are the facts:

Tesla announced closing stores, letting some employees go and planning on transitioning others to service and those expected savings immediately transferred to customers with price reductions and introduction of SR for $35k

Bunch of people screamed loudly about price reductions being too much (yeah, they did!!!), no test drives and employees being treated badly, picked up by media who screamed end of Teslaworld louder.

Tesla closed some stores. Employees got let go.

Then Tesla changed their mind about continuing their plans to close stores and to make up for that deficit of funds, they raised prices back up by 3% except for base Model 3, which apparently not too many people want anyway.

The end.

1. You’re flat out wrong. SOME require a test drive. In the end, I don’t care. When there’s only EVs to choose from, they’ll change or walk to work. Or maybe a little common sense and ask a friend for a test drive, or rent one. Not rocket science if it’s that important to you.

2. Again you’re wrong. SOME will see it as a farce. I still don’t care. See #1.

3. Meh. Anyone new to EVs needs to LIVE with one for a couple weeks to fully understand. A test drive doesn’t cut it. That’s an actual fact that many here can tell you; friends and family discovering what it means to drive an EV for a period of time. And until you get that part of it, you’ve really got no idea about all the bells and whistles of the technology, or that nobody ever complains about buying too much battery.

I also don’t care about the 3% price increase any more than I care about yes, test drives or no, test drives. I only care that Tesla makes whatever decisions they deem necessary to carry on their mission as fast as bloody well possible.

 

[tracksyde]

O.T.

My local area is switching from Southern California Edison to Clean Power Alliance.

On TOU rates it is peak 29 cents per kWh 2pm-8pm for 100% renewable

But 3 cents per kWh from 10pm to 8AM on super off peak for 100% wind.

Prius Eco at 60 MPG is 5.5 cents per mile at local $3.34 per gallon.

Tesla is ~.6-.7 cents per mile.

Rob, you might want to double check that, but that doesnt sound like it includes delivery charges, which SCE will still be collecting. I just went through this exercise with a friend in Stevenson Ranch, which is also switching to CPA

 

[jerry33]

Tesla is ~.6-.7 cents per mile.

Seems high. 2.5 cents per mile is closer to what the Tesla can do.

 

[Fact Checking]

Does anyone have any idea what happened around 14:58 EST that tripled the TSLA volume and caused much of the day's price increase?

There was no macro event near that time, no any TSLA related event in the news feeds. But something clearly happened. Mystery ...

 

[MarcusMaximus]

But 3 cents per kWh from 10pm to 8AM on super off peak for 100% wind.

Holy hell, I wish I could get that. My super off peak rates are around $0.125/kWh up here.

 

[Krugerrand]

One thing that I have not seen enough discussion is Tesla's competitor in China: NIO. Stock price has been devastating the last few trading days (dropped from 10.5 to ~6.7) due to company's change of direction of NOT building their own assembly factory. Is it a pure coincidence with Tesla's announcement of the SR $35k M3?

I bought to support EV transition. Don’t care who does or does not make NIO EVs. But I’m out now because I won’t support another EV maker that bad mouths Tesla.

 

[M3Rider]

Ok, I see. The keywords are "path identified"

 

[RobStark]

Seems high. 2.5 cents per mile is closer to what the Tesla can do.

Less than 1 cent per mile. Point 6 to Point 7 cents per mile at 3 cents per kWh.

https://cleanpoweralliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Clean-Power-Alliance-Residential-Rates.pdf

My area hasn't switched yet.

I have just received pamphlets in the mail.

 

[LoveTSLA]

Does anyone have any idea what happened around 14:58 EST that tripled the TSLA volume and caused much of the day's price increase?

There was no macro event near that time, no any TSLA related event in the news feeds. But something clearly happened. Mystery ...

Hope it is not short covering ......not yet.

 

[RobStark]

Rob, you might want to double check that, but that doesnt sound like it includes delivery charges, which SCE will still be collecting. I just went through this exercise with a friend in Stevenson Ranch, which is also switching to CPA

IF they are charging 29 cents per kWh for on peak plus delivery charges that is not competitive.

 

[jerry33]

Less than 1 cent per mile. Point 6 to Point 7 cents per mile at 3 cents per kWh.

I misread. Sorry about that.

 

[Krugerrand]

I can't predict NIO's stock price.

From business point of view, it will be very difficult to compete against Tesla, no matter it's a legacy car company or a startup EV company. If I were running a startup EV company, I would have no clue how to compete against Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y from Shanghai Gigafactory.

Elon said there maybe a cheaper Tesla EV coming in 3~4 years. Tesla could sell cars at cost still make a healthy profit from software.

If another car company wants to survive, they would have to figure out FSD first, which is not easy.

It definitely is a dilemma now, isn’t it? You’d have to be able to offer something different than Tesla and at a price point comparative to ICE vehicles.

I think an EV start up should start niche - maybe off road vehicles, or company vans or something like that. Build their brand and tech and then maybe dip their toes into larger segments once they have a reputation for quality EVs.

 

[KSilver2000]

Less than 1 cent per mile. Point 6 to Point 7 cents per mile at 3 cents per kWh.

View attachment 385367

https://cleanpoweralliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Clean-Power-Alliance-Residential-Rates.pdf

My area hasn't switched yet.

I have just received pamphlets in the mail.

If you actually read that pamphlet you linked, it says there in BOLD: The rates shown in this document are for electric generation/supply only.
SCE will separately charge you for the distribution portion. All utilities do this (at least the ones I know of). As a customer, you have a choice whether to be charged for generation by the main utility or 3rd party.

So, definitely not as cheap as you think. More likely about 2-3X at least of what you calculated.

 

[Tslynk67]

CNBC: Moody's downgrades auto industry outlook from stable to negative on falling demand

Headlines and final two paragraphs are enough. Can anyone think of a company that's already invested in new transportation tech, including self-driving cars, connected cars and advanced safety features? What about zero emissions?

'Bout time for an upgrade, eh?

Moody’s downgrades auto industry outlook from stable to negative on falling demand

• 
  
  
  • Moody’s cut its 2019 growth forecast for worldwide light vehicle sales by more than half, saying they won’t totally recover from a slowdown in the latter part of 2018.
  • The threat of U.S. import tariffs and the United Kingdom’s potential exit from the European Union are also risks.
  • Global economic growth is expected to slow.

The industry is also faced with declining sales at a time when many companies are racing to invest in new transportation tech, including self-driving cars, connected cars, and advanced safety features.

Auto manufacturers also face ever more stringent emissions guidelines, which are forcing investments in hybrid and electric vehicles, and other options for passengers and freight.