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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Jan 7, 2015
277
2,267
Earth/EU/DK
50M will never happen, unless you think Tesla achieves well over a 50% worldwide market share. At some point (even if it doesn't happen in the next couple of years), robotaxis will arrive and car ownership will level off and gradually decline.

Piper Sandler believes global auto sales will peak ~2030 and decline from there. They are probably accurate within 1-2 years.

I'll eat my hat if Tesla builds more than 10-11 total GFs.
Yes: 50 mio robo-vehicles/year is a staggeringly wild assumption. Granted.

But ... we don't know how the transportation market will look like in 20-30 years.
There is a path for Tesla to get robotaxi cost down to 5 cent/mile. Lets say 7 cent/mile price. With some extrapolation of growth globally, and more and more people joining the (perhaps lower) middle class globally there might be a huge market for 7 cent/mile transport.

If you include vans and mini-buses you can perhaps get the price per customer below 1 cent/mile. At 1 cent/mile almost all people can afford some kind of robo-transport in 20-30 years. So around 9 billion customers. (depending on population growth)
 

FireMedic

‘20 3P-Red Rocket & ‘20 LRX-Falcon Heavy
Jan 26, 2020
257
3,584
Bay Area, Ca
Take away FSD and Robotaxi and his number is $680. Considering neither of those are "real" at this time those can only be added in once they are generating revenue. (granted, FSD is "generating revenue" through subscriptions, but you know what I mean)

I like the guy's work, but today $2900 isn't the valuation, maybe someday soon it could be.
I get there will be some discount for the FSD portion as it’s not feature complete; but to discount it completely would be disingenuous IMO.
There is already revenue for FSD and even TSLA bears, I believe, would assign some value to it especially as many tech companies are attempting their own versions of FSD.
 

Subhuman

Member
Aug 1, 2013
538
1,018
United States
So I have been thinking about my long term holding of TSLA. I’ve been an investor since 2013 and have not sold a single share (only accumulated more) and don’t plan on doing so until 2030 at the earliest.

Then I started think, once Tesla is a mature boring company, they will most likely start paying a dividend. Depending on the dividend and the number of share I have, maybe it makes sense to never sell and just pass the shares down to my kids. I know it’s a total WAG but what are your thoughts on what one could expect on a dividend of a mature Tesla.
 

EVWatcher

Member
Jan 18, 2021
258
1,522
Earth
So I have been thinking about my long term holding of TSLA. I’ve been an investor since 2013 and have not sold a single share (only accumulated more) and don’t plan on doing so until 2030 at the earliest.

Then I started think, once Tesla is a mature boring company, they will most likely start paying a dividend. Depending on the dividend and the number of share I have, maybe it makes sense to never sell and just pass the shares down to my kids. I know it’s a total WAG but what are your thoughts on what one could expect on a dividend of a mature Tesla.
I think Elon has repeatedly said no. But I feel like at some point if tesl pays a dividend it both helps his plan to colonize space and maintain control of Tesla.
 
Jan 7, 2015
277
2,267
Earth/EU/DK
How is it a joke? Sure, they have only built it to about a third of the originally planned size, but at that size it is already producing more than the quantity of cells that they had said it was going to produce when fully built. And in addition they have added production of other things, like the electric motors, to the plant. So they have gotten way more out of way less than they planned. How is that a joke?
Not to mention a few other very important things: The got Panasonic to believe they were serious. They got some investors to believe same.

At the end, as others have mentioned, people are just not that keen on Nevada and Sparks. Elon specifically addressed this re. both Berlin and Austin: It is important to be close to an good urban center. 'Cause most people are not totally driven by achievements, they want to live a nice place with many things to do and visit.
I see 2 ways to correct for the sub-optimal location of Giga Sparks/Nevada:
  • Perhaps in 10 years The Boring company can provide faster transport. It doesn't really solve the bad location, but it mitigates it.
  • If Tesla at some point goes all-in on robotics, including humanoid shapes, some or most of these will likely have tele-presence too. Soo, you commute from your home by linking up with an android - and then go to work. Couple of times a month, you schlepp there physically back and forth, for socializing and keeping the human touch.
 
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mickle

Member
Apr 30, 2019
180
2,355
California
So I have been thinking about my long term holding of TSLA. I’ve been an investor since 2013 and have not sold a single share (only accumulated more) and don’t plan on doing so until 2030 at the earliest.

Then I started think, once Tesla is a mature boring company, they will most likely start paying a dividend. Depending on the dividend and the number of share I have, maybe it makes sense to never sell and just pass the shares down to my kids. I know it’s a total WAG but what are your thoughts on what one could expect on a dividend of a mature Tesla.

If they ever pay dividends I think they'll be paid out in Bitcoins and not dollars.
 
Jan 7, 2015
277
2,267
Earth/EU/DK
My take on Elon's response is: expect a partner/licensee or two for the $25,000 "World Car".
Hm...
Pros: Politics - looks good for Tesla to be cooperating instead of crushing competition. And thus can alleviate, reduce or avoid regulatory obstructions.
Cons: Lack of Tesla culture (hard to define, but open, fast and chaotic seems to be the norm) You can train people for that, but it takes time.

Partnering/licensing might happen.
But I think we need to wait a few more years for Tesla to grow and expand, and for the traditional OEMS to be more scared and desperate than today.
 
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Hock1

Member
Jan 21, 2017
678
6,353
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Hm...
Pros: Politics - looks good for Tesla to be cooperating instead of crushing competition. And thus can alleviate, reduce or avoid regulatory obstructions.
Cons: Lack of Tesla culture (hard to define, but open, fast and chaotic seems to be the norm) You can train people for that, but it takes time.

Partnering/licensing might happen.
But I think we need to wait a few more years for Tesla to grow and expand, and for the traditional OEMS to be more scared and desperate than today.
Good points, but I believe what Elon is saying is that, no matter how fast Tesla can manufacture robotaxis, it still won't be fast enough without engaging manufacturing capacity other that what Tesla can muster, to complete the mission.
 

PeterJA

Member
Sep 26, 2013
929
8,683
San Diego
So I have been thinking about my long term holding of TSLA. I’ve been an investor since 2013 and have not sold a single share (only accumulated more) and don’t plan on doing so until 2030 at the earliest.

Then I started think, once Tesla is a mature boring company, they will most likely start paying a dividend. Depending on the dividend and the number of share I have, maybe it makes sense to never sell and just pass the shares down to my kids. I know it’s a total WAG but what are your thoughts on what one could expect on a dividend of a mature Tesla.

Will Tesla ever become mature, meaning they run out of major problems to solve? Their mission started out with sustainable transport, then broadened to sustainable energy. Maybe it will broaden again to sustainable living, on the home planet and others.

Elon wants to sustain human life ("the light of consciousness"), but said Tesla currently can't tackle some problems (e.g., electric aircraft) because their braintrust is too busy. That will change as transport and energy get solved and the braintrust of top engineers continues to grow (attracted by Tesla's culture), perhaps aided by Tesla artificial intelligence.

Plenty of other problems need solving to get our species off the freight train to extinction: climate change, soil depletion, ecosystem collapse, chemical pollution, global pandemics, toxic medicine and food production, biological and nuclear terrorism, poverty and violent revolution. Maybe by the time those are solved, the concept of dividends will be obsolete. If humans learn to share the immense wealth created by technology, and start taking better care of each other, your children might not need dividends or money as we know it. I can dream.
 

Subhuman

Member
Aug 1, 2013
538
1,018
United States
Will Tesla ever become mature, meaning they run out of major problems to solve? Their mission started out with sustainable transport, then broadened to sustainable energy. Maybe it will broaden again to sustainable living, on the home planet and others.

Elon wants to sustain human life ("the light of consciousness"), but said Tesla currently can't tackle some problems (e.g., electric aircraft) because their braintrust is too busy. That will change as transport and energy get solved and the braintrust of top engineers continues to grow (attracted by Tesla's culture), perhaps aided by Tesla artificial intelligence.

Plenty of other problems need solving to get our species off the freight train to extinction: climate change, soil depletion, ecosystem collapse, chemical pollution, global pandemics, toxic medicine and food production, biological and nuclear terrorism, poverty and violent revolution. Maybe by the time those are solved, the concept of dividends will be obsolete. If humans learn to share the immense wealth created by technology, and start taking better care of each other, your children might not need dividends or money as we know it. I can dream.
To this point, they will have to mature at some point but the question is how long will that be. I see Tesla as a modern day General Electric. GE ran the table for around 100 years. They use to make anything and everything. Unfortunately their time has come to an end and the business in now in fast decline but you can’t really argue about being king if the hill for that long.
 

OrthoSurg

Member
Jun 2, 2017
820
5,229
Montreal
To anyone worried Tesla could be losing market shares to the Mustang MachE, do not worry, Ford might also offer the Death Wobble option available to the MachE. Might be a driving assist feature to make sure you stay awake.

If you know Tesla owners complaning of road noise at higher speed, please feel free to share the strong competition offered by Ford.
 
Jun 1, 2018
987
4,414
Canada
big deal.
"death wobble is just a strong "shimmy with a bit of a shudder"
:We had a 1956 Plymouth station wagon that had a "shimmy" if you got up to 50 that forced you to slow down. The car would still be controlable it was good for beginner drivers to be safer. :cool::cool:
He just needs more practice is all


a.k.a. the great grandfather of chill mode.
 

MC3OZ

Active Member
Jul 25, 2019
2,150
11,664
QLD Australia
Will Tesla ever become mature, meaning they run out of major problems to solve? Their mission started out with sustainable transport, then broadened to sustainable energy. Maybe it will broaden again to sustainable living, on the home planet and others.

Elon wants to sustain human life ("the light of consciousness"), but said Tesla currently can't tackle some problems (e.g., electric aircraft) because their braintrust is too busy. That will change as transport and energy get solved and the braintrust of top engineers continues to grow (attracted by Tesla's culture), perhaps aided by Tesla artificial intelligence.

Plenty of other problems need solving to get our species off the freight train to extinction: climate change, soil depletion, ecosystem collapse, chemical pollution, global pandemics, toxic medicine and food production, biological and nuclear terrorism, poverty and violent revolution. Maybe by the time those are solved, the concept of dividends will be obsolete. If humans learn to share the immense wealth created by technology, and start taking better care of each other, your children might not need dividends or money as we know it. I can dream.

Dividends are a pragmatic, rather than an ideological, decision.

It will depend on how much they are earning, and how quickly they can efficiently spend it.

We are still in a rapid expansion phase for the next 5 years, perhaps the next 10 years, so dividends are unlikely in that timeframe.

But if Tesla keeps growing revenues and 50% per year, for 10 years, what does that look like, and do they hit a point where revenues and profits exceed the opportunities for sensible investment decisions?
 

UnknownSoldier

Unknown Member
Apr 17, 2017
1,914
10,286
Earth
To anyone worried Tesla could be losing market shares to the Mustang MachE, do not worry, Ford might also offer the Death Wobble option available to the MachE. Might be a driving assist feature to make sure you stay awake.

If you know Tesla owners complaning of road noise at higher speed, please feel free to share the strong competition offered by Ford.
Let me guess, the media isn't going to say much about this but don't worry, the next time a Tesla crashes it will be all over CNBC and Bloomberg about how it was probably in Autopilot!
 

generalenthu

Supporting Member
Jun 10, 2015
1,121
8,736
Vienna, VA
If they ever pay dividends I think they'll be paid out in Bitcoins and not dollars.
If they ever pay dividends, I hope they pay in TeslaCoin, that shorts can't borrow. A nice way to force them to cover, if there are any at that point. OSTK did this and saw it's share price skyrocket, though I think the CEO is a card carrying Crazy.
 

Pras

Member
Jun 23, 2016
836
5,794
New Jersey
So I have been thinking about my long term holding of TSLA. I’ve been an investor since 2013 and have not sold a single share (only accumulated more) and don’t plan on doing so until 2030 at the earliest.

Then I started think, once Tesla is a mature boring company, they will most likely start paying a dividend. Depending on the dividend and the number of share I have, maybe it makes sense to never sell and just pass the shares down to my kids. I know it’s a total WAG but what are your thoughts on what one could expect on a dividend of a mature Tesla.
And buybacks. Look at aapl
 
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Maitri982

Member
Dec 23, 2017
339
1,850
Central
Meet Kevin channel more analysis on Ark's prediction and his twitter response to Cathie Wood.

Elon's response:

Per my prior post, this is true unless you productize the tech stack. Do you think ifvtesla creates cars that are ten times safer than humans they will be able to keep it captive? They wont. So before government mandate you productize it and sell it to other automakers.

As I also hinted, there is huge market for something that can navigate in uncertain environment. Robots...

So market even bigger than cars and Tesla has all the pieces.
 

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