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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

RobStark

Well-Known Member
Jul 2, 2013
10,389
53,488
City of Champions, USA
I think Elon has repeatedly said no. But I feel like at some point if tesl pays a dividend it both helps his plan to colonize space and maintain control of Tesla.

Elon has said no. In the foreseeable future.

Sometimes he says 5 years is the foreseeable future. Sometimes 10 years.

The chances of getting a second Elon after he retires/dies to intelligently invest $1T + in profits per year are low.

The chances global governments being ok with Tesla controlling an ever increasing share of GDP is also low. 10% 20% 50% 90%?
 

Opus BC fan

TSLA long since 2011
Dec 9, 2012
593
5,934
At Large
I am thinking we will have some continuing buying opportunities for the next 2 weeks. Monday may see a small bump up but that will be eroded quickly.
(WAG based on macros remaining wonky and FUD looking elevated to me)

I suggest keeping the seat belts fastened, HODLing, and continuing the search for dry powder.
 

Maitri982

Member
Dec 23, 2017
339
1,850
Central
Per my prior post, this is true unless you productize the tech stack. Do you think ifvtesla creates cars that are ten times safer than humans they will be able to keep it captive? They wont. So before government mandate you productize it and sell it to other automakers.

As I also hinted, there is huge market for something that can navigate in uncertain environment. Robots...

So market even bigger than cars and Tesla has all the pieces.

And maybe you require them to use Tesla network too and get an annuity.
 

S3XY

Active Member
Nov 24, 2015
1,988
6,249
Buffalo, NY
Does anyone have thoughts as to why some beta testers have videos that look amazing while some drivers have videos like this for the same version?

I didn't watch any of this after the point where the car put the right turn signal on to change lanes near the stop light and he canceled FSD because there was a truck approaching in that next lane (1:40). But FSD wasn't going to just run into the truck. It likely would have waited for it to pass and had room to move over or was moving partially in front of it before the truck got there. It's hard to say though since we couldn't see the truck approaching and he canceled it when it started moving right. So then he continues in that same left lane until he gets to a left turn only section and wonders why it tried to move right and cross the lane hash markings to get in the lane that goes straight, which is where the navigation is pointing. The problem is that he activated FSD just when it hits that restricted lane section and navigation didn't have time to avoid that lane beforehand. If he hadn't cancelled it at the previous block FSD already knew it had to, and actually started to, move to the next lane to the right so it could continue straight at the next block.
 
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Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
11,626
15,659
NC
ultrasonic sensors are probably necessary as cameras don’t have a sufficiently wide field of view at super close range. E.g., if you’re inches away from an obstruction that is very low in a parking spot.

Ultrasonics can't actually do that either though.

It's why the car still hits curbs (and sometimes other cars) when parking itself.

It can see fairly close- it can't see VERY close if the object is quite high or quite low.


In my "If Tesla wants a real L5 sensor suite" idea; the car has fisheye cameras low on the bumpers- which would both provide a genuine overhead 360 parking view, and provide safe self parking even in narrow/tight spots where the front cameras that can't see below the hood line can't tell if there's anything low/in front of the wheels.

If it had em to the sides too it'd let it see better around tight corners where now the car has to keep inching up into traffic to see to the sides with the B-pillar cameras... (and in the back it'd provide better to-the-side cross traffic view backing out of something).


Radar is only necessary for superhuman performance.

Why would we not want that?


No reasonable way to model it right now


They modeled robotaxis, and those don't even exist yet- and ask 10 people and get 10 different answers of the actual demand, the impact on "regular" car ownership, the real cost per mile, and so on.

The solar and energy businesses do actually exist and we have a reasonable idea of the size of the addressable market, the current costs and profits, and so on. How's THAT no reasonable way to model, but RTs are?

Then I started think, once Tesla is a mature boring company, they will most likely start paying a dividend.

Elon has in the past explicitly said Tesla does not pay a dividend and never will.

Not that he never changes his mind- but I certainly wouldn't base any long term investment plans on him doing so.



EDIT: I've gone back a month to look the various videos from this YouTube channel and the videos NEVER demonstrate the actual version number of the FW. Also, the views of the interior show different cars. Sometimes the mylar is on the center screen and sometimes NOT. Seems like they might be getting a hold of different cars at different times before they are getting delivered. And remember that during delivery the FW is updated to the latest. None of these videos demonstrate the actual version number of the FW.


So your premise is they somehow keep getting multiple, different, "new" cars that never had their firmware updated... but.... somehow ALL came from the factory with FSDBeta enabled, but also an old version of it? And Tesla hasn't caught on to any of this happening too?


Seems....somewhat less plausable....than "sometimes FSDBeta screws up, and the guy isn't afraid to include those examples when he posts video"

If FSDBeta did not sometimes screw up, it'd already be in wide release after all.
 

Discoducky

P100DL, 2021 M3, 3 CT reservations and counting
Dec 25, 2011
3,471
3,618
Seattle
So your premise is they somehow keep getting multiple, different, "new" cars that never had their firmware updated... but.... somehow ALL came from the factory with FSDBeta enabled, but also an old version of it? And Tesla hasn't caught on to any of this happening too?


Seems....somewhat less plausable....than "sometimes FSDBeta screws up, and the guy isn't afraid to include those examples when he posts video"

If FSDBeta did not sometimes screw up, it'd already be in wide release after all.
Did you watch the video? They seem to be using different cars unless they took the mylar off the center screen and then put it back on a few times.

I'm all for figuring out these FSD issues, but let's do it to improve the firmware as opposed to trying to 'get clicks'
 

dkemme

Supporting Member
Apr 3, 2016
346
895
Greeley, CO
So I have been thinking about my long term holding of TSLA. I’ve been an investor since 2013 and have not sold a single share (only accumulated more) and don’t plan on doing so until 2030 at the earliest.

Then I started think, once Tesla is a mature boring company, they will most likely start paying a dividend. Depending on the dividend and the number of share I have, maybe it makes sense to never sell and just pass the shares down to my kids. I know it’s a total WAG but what are your thoughts on what one could expect on a dividend of a mature Tesla.
You can possibly create your own dividend, or reinvest shares, with options trading.
 

mongo

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2017
12,966
38,498
Michigan

Discoducky

P100DL, 2021 M3, 3 CT reservations and counting
Dec 25, 2011
3,471
3,618
Seattle
To anyone worried Tesla could be losing market shares to the Mustang MachE, do not worry, Ford might also offer the Death Wobble option available to the MachE. Might be a driving assist feature to make sure you stay awake.

If you know Tesla owners complaning of road noise at higher speed, please feel free to share the strong competition offered by Ford.
I was amazed to find out that the Mach E does NOT have regen. And, to my knowledge, every EV to up until this point, has had regen. From an engineering point, regen is so simple to just run the motor in reverse, so it makes me wonder why Ford does NOT have it currently or is this forever? Put more bluntly, it seems like a huge red flag at this point as regen is free energy as well as greatly reducing wear and tear on the braking system.
 

OrthoSurg

Member
Jun 2, 2017
820
5,229
Montreal
I was amazed to find out that the Mach E does NOT have regen. And, to my knowledge, every EV to up until this point, has had regen. From an engineering point, regen is so simple to just run the motor in reverse, so it makes me wonder why Ford does NOT have it currently or is this forever? Put more bluntly, it seems like a huge red flag at this point as regen is free energy as well as greatly reducing wear and tear on the braking system.
I did not know that.
this is good for Ford, more brake wear, more brake maintenance, more visits and profits to the Ford dealership.
not so good for customers.
 

AudubonB

One can NOT induce accuracy with precision!
Mar 24, 2013
8,097
27,013
How is it a joke? Sure, they have only built it to about a third of the originally planned size, but at that size it is already producing more than the quantity of cells that they had said it was going to produce when fully built. And in addition they have added production of other things, like the electric motors, to the plant. So they have gotten way more out of way less than they planned. How is that a joke?
This is not correct. Tesla's original proclamations about the Sparks plant were that its fully-built out size would have it producing 105 gWh of batteries each year. Even when I visited it in 2016, Mr Musk said that the 105 gWh number would be the eventual full size.
I think he meant it is a joke compared to the relative expected production capacity of other gigafactories. The others having significantly greater production projections.
I concur with @Beltsbear that NY properly should be considered a Really Big Factory, but not a Gigafactory. A reminder, though: there are quite a few - not surprisingly, most appear to be Texans - who take severe umbrage in my disparaging their bombast about Austin being a Terafactory.
 

Discoducky

P100DL, 2021 M3, 3 CT reservations and counting
Dec 25, 2011
3,471
3,618
Seattle
I think it is worth commenting on this statement in particular.

"VW’s software platform and ecosystem are top-notch compared to most classic OEMs, but are “years behind Tesla”."

Specifically for OTA. To be clear, it is wholly unknown to what level/depth any OTA solution has until you see it actually functioning in production to do updates of specific components and then that those components can then be updated again in production.

The hardest part about OTA is that you might 'brick' components. Where bricking is defined as rendering a component inoperable to further updates to completely nonfunctional. And whenever you OTA a component you run a risk of bricking that component. The bricking is due to the memory that the code is both being written to as well as what memory the old code is written to and how they are swapped. It is super hard and no matter how solid you think the process is, there is always a fraction of memory that goes bad. In other words, unless you've written amazing bootloader code, implemented robust abundant memory and have a full proof process for ensuring code stability, I can guarantee you'll brick at least 1% of components everytime they are updated.

Imagine bricking the brake system, EPAS, body controls ECUs, drive control, BMS...etc for 10000 cars when you update 1M in your fleet.

When we first started writing this code at Tesla it was crazy hard, never been done before and our suppliers had no idea what we were talking about.
So I saw this article and while it is hard to read (as there is no chart or matrix of anykind) it is worth noting that not a single car company TO DATE has implemented OTA for FW (firmware). But if anyone knows differently that would be great to know.

Just to be crystal clear on this, to enable FW OTA is super hard. Also, there is really no way to know that you got a FW OTA update **UNLESS** one of the systems had very different behavior (which includes the infotainment system). This does NOT include new maps updates or even better performance of the infotainment system.

To describe this very different behavior would be very different like faster 0-60 times, materially better braking performance, better self driving characteristics, suspension features or behaviors, changes in how windows or doors operate, changes in pedal performance or regen feel...etc.
 

Mo City

Active Member
Jul 17, 2016
1,910
11,670
near Houston
I was amazed to find out that the Mach E does NOT have regen. And, to my knowledge, every EV to up until this point, has had regen. From an engineering point, regen is so simple to just run the motor in reverse, so it makes me wonder why Ford does NOT have it currently or is this forever? Put more bluntly, it seems like a huge red flag at this point as regen is free energy as well as greatly reducing wear and tear on the braking system.
LOL, fortunately for Ford, people who haven't owned EVs have little or no appreciation for regen braking. They will benefit from that ignorance for some time.
 

Hock1

Member
Jan 21, 2017
678
6,353
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Per my prior post, this is true unless you productize the tech stack. Do you think ifvtesla creates cars that are ten times safer than humans they will be able to keep it captive? They wont. So before government mandate you productize it and sell it to other automakers.

As I also hinted, there is huge market for something that can navigate in uncertain environment. Robots...

So market even bigger than cars and Tesla has all the pieces.
Thanks for spelling out the essence of what I just said. I often make the mistake of thinking that participants on this board can think one or two steps forward on their own.
 

Johnny Ma

Member
Aug 17, 2018
341
3,435
Earth
I was amazed to find out that the Mach E does NOT have regen. And, to my knowledge, every EV to up until this point, has had regen. From an engineering point, regen is so simple to just run the motor in reverse, so it makes me wonder why Ford does NOT have it currently or is this forever? Put more bluntly, it seems like a huge red flag at this point as regen is free energy as well as greatly reducing wear and tear on the braking system.

An electric motor in reverse function is a generator. I guess that's not well known? You obviously know that, I'm just pointing it out.

But feeding the energy of a decelerating 3-4thousand lb vehicle into a battery pack isn't easy...Tesla does it with ease because of their power electronics and software advantage.
 

Discoducky

P100DL, 2021 M3, 3 CT reservations and counting
Dec 25, 2011
3,471
3,618
Seattle
An electric motor in reverse function is a generator. I guess that's not well known? You obviously know that, I'm just pointing it out.

But feeding the energy of a decelerating 3-4thousand lb vehicle into a battery pack isn't easy...Tesla does it with ease because of their power electronics and software advantage.
HA, yeah! But in relative terms, for engineers who know what they are doing, EV drivetrain engineers, BMS engineers, Inverter engineers, pedal monitor, braking, autopilot all need to work together and the engineering itself isn't hard....it's the working together part that is relatively harder. I honestly cannot imagine how bad it must be at Ford if they cannot get regen to work. I cannot imagine how behind they must be (i.e. technical debt) to ship an EV without regen. It is simply not competitive to say the least.
 

MC3OZ

Active Member
Jul 25, 2019
2,150
11,664
QLD Australia
Does anyone else think those car bodies in Berlin might be being used to test the paint-shop?

Any lessons learned can also be applied to the Austin paint-shop build.

With the cells coming from Fremont and my assumption that structural packs might be easy to build, the body-shop is the other area which might present challenges. But it would be good to minimize problem areas as far as possible before ramping.
 

Discoducky

P100DL, 2021 M3, 3 CT reservations and counting
Dec 25, 2011
3,471
3,618
Seattle
I’m quite certain the Mach E does have regen. It just may not be turned on by default. Lots of Mach E articles mention regen and one pedal driving...
Hmm, if they do GREAT! I'm refering to Twitter feeds that state it does NOT have regen. Just looked at this TopGear article and it does mention regen: Ford Mustang Mach-E

Thank goodness if it does. Ugh, I want that car to not be the train wreck that the I-Pace was.
 

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