One thing I realized is that what we saw was gonna happen back in 2017 and had to wait for years for the market to see, is happening again. Tesla are now building three factories that will keep growing for many years. Even if they donāt announce any new gigafactories, they will probably be able to get close to 5M vehicles/year by 2025.
Now in Shanghai they are now ramping Model Y which in a few months will go to three shifts and then be close to 250k/year for a total of 500k/year. Are they stopping there? Now they are building more inhouse supply of everything and have most likely bought land for Model 2 and another 500k vehicles/year:
Austin land is huge and they are already clearing up new areas to start construction. I have a feeling they will be finishing buildings and starting new ones continuously for another 4 years. Model Y, Cybertruck, Model 2 and some more projects. Probably at 500k/y each of each.
Berlin Phase 1 is probably enough for 500k Model Y/year and they already have plans for Phase 2 which will most likely be a Model 2 which likely will be another 500k/year.
So just what they starting now will give them a contious ramp from 500k/year this year to about (500k+1M+2M+1M) and this is just what they are building out right now.
So we bulls will just have to wait for reality to hit the market and people to realize that Tesla will 10x in 5years even without any acceleration of plans(why did they raise capital twice, robotaxi boost etc).
So expect the possibility of like 2-3 more years of the market being mostly flat before it finally realizes what should have been pretty obvious to any sane analyst.