While I agree that current factories will continue to increase throughput and create new lines, I fully expect Tesla to start/announce a new factory every year for the next 5 years. It is just in their DNA to continually improve and expand to achieve the mission.
Also, disagree the market could be flat, I think the major items that will move the stock are financials and manufacturing numbers like production and delivery numbers coupled with margin. I imagine that Elon will never stop reducing prices when economies of scale milestones are being obliterated. He'll continue to ensure they are always production constrained, no matter how much incredible value they pack into the car and he'll never advertise, never pay a dividend because every penny is spent towards engineering and manufacturing. If he gave money to investors it would be like marketing and he hates marketing. But it's also the reason that many folks don't yet know about Teslas' insurmountable lead that is continuing to get bigger as the years go by.
I think 2021 will be huge when it is seen how much economies of scale and production/deliveries are occurring relative to traditional auto in markets that Tesla currently competes in.
Tl;dr; Grow as fast as reasonably possible by folding profit back in. Eventually that spending will decrease as a percentage of the company and they can continue to reduce prices while rewarding investors.
Long, parenthetical, but possibly interesting at the end:
Great post, and I agree with it except the bolded section, specifically "never". Elon has Tweeted about Tesla paying dividends in the far future when profit > useful spending. At some point, the aggregated growth curves must taper off to maintenance/ population growth level, while Tesla itself gets larger. Expansion spending becomes less of the operating profit and a minor shift in vehicle price can produce billions in surplus profit without greatly impacting purchasability.
There is also his statement from a leaked e-mail:
"When looking at our actual profitability, it's very low at about 1% for the past year. Investors are giving us a lot of credit for future profits
, but if, at any point, they conclude that's not going to happen, our stock will immediately get crushed like a soufflé under a sledge hammer!"
Current profits matter to show the company is viable (though cash flow positive does too vs GAAP) and aid cash raises, but future profits are a carrot that allow for dividends as a payback to investors for their investment (along with stock appreciation (also tied to future success) and internal motivations).
Of course, the stock price != true value of a company, and if there is sufficient cash on hand, SP is somewhat removed from its ability to operate, so even the crushed egg could advance the renewable transition, but it's hard on the employees (stock option compensation) and investors, both of which Elon is cognizant of.
In the near term, non-monetary dividends are an interesting thought. What about X days-miles-hours-minutes of FSD subscription per share as a dividend? Or Y miles of Tesla Network usage? Like Eve Online, one could even theoretically trade these to others for cash (if permitted). Also makes shorting (naked or or otherwise) more difficult (which is an interesting factor in regards to a dividend trading market) .
