AimStellar
Member
It's thinking like this that stifles innovation. "It's always been this way, so it will always be this way."
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
It's thinking like this that stifles innovation. "It's always been this way, so it will always be this way."
Played around with back of the napkin numbers for using autonomous vehicles to deliver food. Just revenue, did not dive into margins. It's pretty obvious that margins would be far higher with autonomous vehicles, especially if small purpose built versions are created (such as an Arcimoto sized vehicle).
CAGR of the food delivery business is 4.3% and cheaper services would no doubt increase that. This isn't a huge business, but 5 billion is 5 billion, particulary if deliveries can be timed along with customer pickups. (car picks up pizza, drops off, and then picks up a nearby rideshare saving time/money)
CAGR of the food delivery business is 4.3% and cheaper services would no doubt increase that. This isn't a huge business, but 5 billion is 5 billion, particulary if deliveries can be timed along with customer pickups. (car picks up pizza, drops off, and then picks up a nearby rideshare saving time/money)
How much of that is flexibility though? Say you like to drive to your vacation home or visit grandma 2 hours away. That's prohibitively expensive and a hassle with an Uber. Won't be nearly the same issue with RTs.
AimStellar
Member
When you’re driving home and think, “Tesla should really make this a Candlestick chart...” you know you love the stock
As the current Texas legislature session is scheduled to end May 21, there is little time to pass HB 4379, the bill that would allow EV manufacturers to sell directly in Texas. I therefore respectfully submit the first Mordor Gentrification Update (aka MGU or “Magoo”).
My apologies, Magoo #1 is late.
MGU #1:
HB 4379 filed March 12
Next step: Out of House Committee
My apologies, Magoo #1 is late.
MGU #1:
HB 4379 filed March 12
Next step: Out of House Committee
Don't do that to me.Hell has frozen over!
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Too bad is Todd Gordon and not our favorite clownEl gordo
You totally scared me by implying that Gordo made bullish comments on TSLA.If it were true, that would have been the first strong sell signal I have ever seen -- considering how much of a contrarian indicator Gordo is.
When considering the use case for Robo-Taxis 2 relevant questions occurred to me.
1. Who pays $80 for 2 hours parking?
2. Who buys 10 year old ICE cars?
For Q1 I paid $80 for 2 hours parking in the 1980s going for an intense job interview, an RT would have been the easier / cheaper option.
Q2 10 year old ICE cars are mostly bought by young people and sometimes people in developing countries.
In both cases they are buying the car they can afford, not the car they want to own.
They are way better off using RTs and each RT can displace up to 10 sales of 10 year ICE cars.
Those 10 year old ICE cars tend to be the most polluting and unreliable.
A 25K Model 2 is a great for for RTs in developing counties. If they need to have a driver for the first 5 years of operation, that is no big deal, because wages are lower. So India and Africa are example locations where Tesla RTs might have drivers for a few years while the NN trains for those environments.
But if a human can drive using vision in any environment, FSD will eventually do it better.
People tend to assume private car ownership is the only economic model for developing countries and that FSD can never work. Both assumptions are incorrect RTs are a great fit for developing countries.
On this basis, eventually making Model 2s in India, with LFP batteries, seems very likely.
Savings on fuel and running costs will add up. for around the same price, the passenger should get a much safer more enjoyable experience.
Any vehicle Tesla may eventually make smaller than a Model 2 would be targeted at inner city RTs in developing countries. If they do make that type of vehicle, design and build in India would be likely.
1. Who pays $80 for 2 hours parking?
2. Who buys 10 year old ICE cars?
For Q1 I paid $80 for 2 hours parking in the 1980s going for an intense job interview, an RT would have been the easier / cheaper option.
Q2 10 year old ICE cars are mostly bought by young people and sometimes people in developing countries.
In both cases they are buying the car they can afford, not the car they want to own.
They are way better off using RTs and each RT can displace up to 10 sales of 10 year ICE cars.
Those 10 year old ICE cars tend to be the most polluting and unreliable.
A 25K Model 2 is a great for for RTs in developing counties. If they need to have a driver for the first 5 years of operation, that is no big deal, because wages are lower. So India and Africa are example locations where Tesla RTs might have drivers for a few years while the NN trains for those environments.
But if a human can drive using vision in any environment, FSD will eventually do it better.
People tend to assume private car ownership is the only economic model for developing countries and that FSD can never work. Both assumptions are incorrect RTs are a great fit for developing countries.
On this basis, eventually making Model 2s in India, with LFP batteries, seems very likely.
Savings on fuel and running costs will add up. for around the same price, the passenger should get a much safer more enjoyable experience.
Any vehicle Tesla may eventually make smaller than a Model 2 would be targeted at inner city RTs in developing countries. If they do make that type of vehicle, design and build in India would be likely.
Or lost his sponsors.Don't do that to me.
...
Unlike yesterday, today's outing featured numerous lead changes and a fairly narrow point range (for Team Tesla). Like yesterday, they fizzled out at the end, this time for a narrow loss and snapping their 2 game winning streak.
Today
Score: 662.16
Margin of W/L: -7.84
Attendance: 30,467,151
Season
Record: 27-28
Total points in wins: 670.09
Total points in losses: -713.60
YTD gain/loss: -43.51 -6.17%
Avg margin of victory: 24.82
Avg margin of defeat: -25.49
Best W: 110.58 2021-03-09
Worst L: -68.83 2021-01-11
Last 10: 5-5
Streak: L1
Today
Score: 662.16
Margin of W/L: -7.84
Attendance: 30,467,151
Season
Record: 27-28
Total points in wins: 670.09
Total points in losses: -713.60
YTD gain/loss: -43.51 -6.17%
Avg margin of victory: 24.82
Avg margin of defeat: -25.49
Best W: 110.58 2021-03-09
Worst L: -68.83 2021-01-11
Last 10: 5-5
Streak: L1
Mods are gonna need to start personally messaging me when they arbitrarily delete my posts~~~~~[deleted material].....There are very few ways faster to be put on permanent vacation than by telling Moderators what they have to do~~~~~
mltv
Member
Seems like Taycan fast charging comes with a price: Porsche Taycan gets big software update with a strange battery charging adjustment
asburgers
Sell order in at $8008.5
Porsche drivers are so weird asking for charging speed to be reduced.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Funny choice of words here (bold by me):
You know, when Tesla does something fun to my car, like give it farting noises or caraoke, I’m totally a fan because it happens sitting in my garage...
so, I get there’s other significant enhancements, but Tesla has this experience beat by a country mile.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Just imagine the tsunami of FUD / outrage in media (both social- and main stream) if Tesla had reduced max charging speed by 35% as an "upgrade"!
Not to mention that the original speed (270kW) was already 30% below the advertised 350kW.
I always wondered how Porsche was doing 350 kW without degrading the battery. Turns out they weren’t doing it and it caused battery degradation anyways. Way to go Porsche!
Contrast that with Tesla which started at 90 kW and slowly worked their way up as they gained experience and tweaked battery chemistry.
Which company is the out of control loose canon again?
One thing I realized is that what we saw was gonna happen back in 2017 and had to wait for years for the market to see, is happening again. Tesla are now building three factories that will keep growing for many years. Even if they don’t announce any new gigafactories, they will probably be able to get close to 5M vehicles/year by 2025.
Now in Shanghai they are now ramping Model Y which in a few months will go to three shifts and then be close to 250k/year for a total of 500k/year. Are they stopping there? Now they are building more inhouse supply of everything and have most likely bought land for Model 2 and another 500k vehicles/year:
Austin land is huge and they are already clearing up new areas to start construction. I have a feeling they will be finishing buildings and starting new ones continuously for another 4 years. Model Y, Cybertruck, Model 2 and some more projects. Probably at 500k/y each of each.
Berlin Phase 1 is probably enough for 500k Model Y/year and they already have plans for Phase 2 which will most likely be a Model 2 which likely will be another 500k/year.
So just what they starting now will give them a contious ramp from 500k/year this year to about (500k+1M+2M+1M) and this is just what they are building out right now.
So we bulls will just have to wait for reality to hit the market and people to realize that Tesla will 10x in 5years even without any acceleration of plans(why did they raise capital twice, robotaxi boost etc).
So expect the possibility of like 2-3 more years of the market being mostly flat before it finally realizes what should have been pretty obvious to any sane analyst.
Now in Shanghai they are now ramping Model Y which in a few months will go to three shifts and then be close to 250k/year for a total of 500k/year. Are they stopping there? Now they are building more inhouse supply of everything and have most likely bought land for Model 2 and another 500k vehicles/year:
Austin land is huge and they are already clearing up new areas to start construction. I have a feeling they will be finishing buildings and starting new ones continuously for another 4 years. Model Y, Cybertruck, Model 2 and some more projects. Probably at 500k/y each of each.
Berlin Phase 1 is probably enough for 500k Model Y/year and they already have plans for Phase 2 which will most likely be a Model 2 which likely will be another 500k/year.
So just what they starting now will give them a contious ramp from 500k/year this year to about (500k+1M+2M+1M) and this is just what they are building out right now.
So we bulls will just have to wait for reality to hit the market and people to realize that Tesla will 10x in 5years even without any acceleration of plans(why did they raise capital twice, robotaxi boost etc).
So expect the possibility of like 2-3 more years of the market being mostly flat before it finally realizes what should have been pretty obvious to any sane analyst.
Someone on reddit did a nice TLDR.New podcast with Andrej Karpathy. There's some Tesla content starting at about 18-min. Nothing earthshaking so far, but useful context for folks who'd like to know more about NNs and Andrej's experience at Tesla.
The Robot Brains Podcast with Pieter Abbeel
In each episode of The Robot Brains podcast, renowned artificial intelligence researcher, professor and entrepreneur Pieter Abbeel meets the brilliant minds attempting to build robots with brains. Pieter is joined by leading experts in AI Robotics from all over the world as he explores how far...www.therobotbrains.ai
- Working with Elon Musk: "He's an incredible person, I'm still trying to map out his superpowers. Incredible intuition even with lack of information. Great judgement. He's a double edged sword because he wants the future yesterday. You have to have a certain attitude to tolerate that. If you can, you will thrive at Tesla."
- Hardest problem is variability. So many possible problems in the real world.
- 75% of his time is spent curating data. 25% on algorithms. Machine Learning is Programming where the computer fills in the blanks.
- Interventions are a great trigger for training the system. The team can detect disagreements too: A stop sign flickers on and off or map data is wrong.
- "Millions of images easily" on the system. Takes 2-3 weeks to train on new data.
- The neural network in cars today do not make road edge predictions based on one image from one camera anymore, but a birds-eye view with data from all 8 cameras. Known as "Software 2.0".
- Operation Vacation: For the engineers writing code, the goal is for neural networks to improve by themselves (and with help of labelers) and theoretically the engineers could go on vacation while the system continues to improve. Mentions "it's a half joke, our northstar."
- They do-not outsource their data labeling.
- Dojo: An in-house (vertical integration) chip designed for training mass amounts of data. Active project currently at Tesla.
- Currently do a lot of manual labeling but looking to train data based on sensors. For example: Running some cars on Lidar/Radar to verify and train visual data.
- Waymo vs Tesla: Waymo does a ton of HD mapping with many sensors and many humans before a car can enter any area. Tesla is not using HD maps, but "Low definition" maps that simply give "Left turn, Right turn" directions. Tesla relies on inexpensive parts and expensive software to drive on any road you give it. "We don't know to centimeter level accuracy where a curb is. The car needs to look at images and decide where it should be." A much "higher bar, harder to design" problem but a lot less expensive.
- Implies that Waymo doesn't have enough cars to collect the data to solve FSD but doesn't outright say it. "Scale is incredibly important for dataset curation. I would rather trade sensors for data."
- Expect exponential improvements in automation everywhere, from cars to drones to warehouses, in just the next few years. The growth in the AI space in the past 4 years has not been close to linear and Andrej is excited to see what the next 4, 10, even 20 years will bring us.
In your post I replied to, you were questioning why a specific volume of demand in Europe was necessary to justify a plant there.
Here it sounds like you are providing the reasons for just such an increased demand.
Seems a bit of a non-sequitur....
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