Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Leo9]

TSLA target cut $430 to $400 Macquarie, $283 to $260 by MS

 

[Navin]

MS downgrade

CNBC and BLOOMBERG speaking slot for today secured. Whenever one of these analysts lower or increase his/her price targets - he/she gets to go on stage and look intelligent. Adam probably wants to share some thoughts out of his ass related to the SEC. It’s also a big week for Tesla with Model Y - Adam just wants to make sure he gets to dance on stage a bit

Don’t hate the players - hate the game.

 

[jerry33]

Not necessarily, re: less energy during their useful life - as you go to smaller size classes, you have to remove length from the car, which reduces your ability to streamline the shape (without compromising rear headroom, anyway). This means that, while city efficiency is improved by the weight reduction, highway efficiency is worsened by increased drag.

The point at which that happens isn't that much smaller than the Model 3 already is.

Frontal area is the main component of aerodynamic drag, given reasonably similar body shapes, Reduce the frontal area and small increases in aerodynamic efficiency from a longer body don't matter. Also the pollution caused during manufacture changes with the amount of materials used.

 

[bhtooefr]

Oh, that's another thing, smaller size classes of car often get taller, because they're optimizing for packaging vs. city parking (and therefore length). Sure, there's frontal area gains from being narrower (however, that reduces the amount of battery cells that can be safely carried, and reduces crash safety), but if you lose it through being taller...

 

[Singer3000]

Your lawyer friend must not have read the response carefully enough, there's many layers of defenses offered (as you'd fully expect from the very prestigeous law firm that is working for Elon), and the First Amendment defenses only start at page 20 of the 25 pages of filing ...

The contempt motion can already be denied by the judge based on just 2 pages of reading.

The rest is for "defense in depth" and IMO the First Amendment arguments are primarily there for counterattack: I now fully expect Elon to file either a cross motion or a declaratory motion to ask the judge to limit the SEC's broad interpretation of the settlement.

Note how carefully the expert opinion lays out the facts of the significant monetary harm the SEC's erroneous filing has inflicted on Tesla investors ...

If you connect the dots it appears very clear they don't intend to stop at getting the contempt motion denied.

Also note that even for pure procedural reasons Elon's lawyers had to raise a First Amendment defense in this motion if they later on want to rely on constitutional arguments to counterattack. (It's very difficult to bring in new arguments at later stages.) This is a basic principle they are teaching in the first year of law school ...

I think your lawyer friend is seriously mistaken here.

Perhaps... not long to wait.

 

[Thekiwi]

What would the CFO have to do with this? A CFO is a glorified accountant.

Hypothetical:

Elon: “Hey, CFO, what’s our biggest cost we could cut that doesn’t impact production of vehicles?”
Zach: “Your private jet?”
Elon “No, but seriously”
Zach: “...”
Elon: “...”
Zach: “Well, the retail stores cost us plenty in overhead, and the staff get commission, and often the malls get a % cut of in-store sales revenue, but you should be aware that....hey where are you going? Did you just send a tweet while we were talking? what’s happening Thursday at 2pm? Elon?”

 

[UncaNed]

Oh, that's another thing, smaller size classes of car often get taller, because they're optimizing for packaging vs. city parking (and therefore length). Sure, there's frontal area gains from being narrower (however, that reduces the amount of battery cells that can be safely carried, and reduces crash safety), but if you lose it through being taller...

I didn't know length determines class size; if that's the case, they need to design relatively longer cars anyway for greater efficiency. Not all of us park in cities with short parking spaces.

 

[KarenRei]

Hypothetical:

Elon: “Hey, CFO, what’s our biggest cost we could cut that doesn’t impact production of vehicles?”
Zach: “Your private jet?”
Elon “No, but seriously”
Zach: “...”
Elon: “...”
Zach: “Well, the retail stores cost us plenty in overhead, and the staff get commission, and often the malls get a % cut of in-store sales revenue, but you should be aware that....hey where are you going? Did you just send a tweet while we were talking? what’s happening Thursday at 2pm? Elon?”

Doesn't Elon own and pay for his own jet, paid for out of his credit line backed by a fraction of his stock?

 

[KarenRei]

I saw Saudis are cutting production, oil price will rise...

Just wondering, how many gallons or barrels do we think each Model 3 will save per year on average?

I estimate 10 barrels for the typical owner. So 500k/yr = 5 million barrels per year per year (e.g. compounded - 5m, 10m, 15m, 20m....).

There's a long way to go, but they'll get there.

 

[Tslynk67]

WTF ! What's going on with $TSLA -2% in pre market ?

Probably Stanley Laurel and Morgan Hardy...

 

[Fact Checking]

TSLA target cut $430 to $400 Macquarie, $283 to $260 by MS

And the downgrades were totally unrelated to the very predictable timing of Elon's legal filing.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

And that’s why Tesla is so closed lipped about everything. People can’t even just wait a few days to be surprised.

Jeez, they purposely put easter eggs on the page

 

[Fact Checking]

Doesn't Elon own and pay for his own jet, paid for out of his credit line backed by a fraction of his stock?

That would be a common-sense construct, given how often he is using the jet for SpaceX and private purposes.

 

[Pras]

TSLA target cut $430 to $400 Macquarie, $283 to $260 by MS

Just feels that analysts are stupid ever and ever. If I build a forecast model that needs adjusting with every new data point, my quant risk team will reject my model.

Therefore I like long term views like Ark investment ( and to be fair to mark spiegel), who have a view undeterred by small movements.

Outside of long term view, the only fair prediction can be short term technicals (like at best 2 week out types).

Anything in between is fooling the avg Joe’s of investing.

I seriously think SEC should have some accountability for these analysts. As in how many times they are accurate and mandate them to publish their accuracy score when giving out a price target. They do it for fund performance, so why not price prediction?

This is from someone who has invested in Tesla with real $ and worth a million of it... not some stupid CFA who is conflicted and confused, and has nothing to worry for his inaccurate stupid hypothesis.

 

[KarenRei]

That would be a common-sense construct, given how often he is using the jet for SpaceX and private purposes.

I'll never understand why some people chew him out for the jet. Seriously, you think any of his companies are best served by having him sit around waiting to fly commercial? Or, re: SF-LA... are they best served by him taking a bus or train, and taking half a day to get there? I mean, it's a ridiculous line of argument.

I honestly think that most people who make it know that it's a ridiculous argument, but still want to hit him with it because everyone hates rich people with private planes.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Fred thinks that his content based on publicly available tweets and articles are proprietary. Everyone who refers to same publicly available tweets and articles has to give attribution to Fred's "original" content. Such a whiny jackass!
Edit: Also, what Ryan suggested in his first tweet isn't some crazy out-of-the-box idea that only a genius like Fred can come up with.

View attachment 385643

Wow, I knew he had a bone to pick, but had no idea he was so vindictive. That's the last time I visit Electrek.

Dan

 

[SebastianR]

Today and as of now, Tesla delivered as many cars in Norway as they did all of March 2018: 1409 cars in March already

Tesla Registration Stats

 

[Todd Burch]

Somebody here called yesterday that we'd get a MS downgrade today. Who wants to claim their prize?

Seriously, Jonas. Try harder.

 

[Zaxxon]

OMG. Fred is getting more and more insufferable by the day.

And the funniest part is he is the king of using uncredited sources...

This is somewhat incredible, as not only does Fred do it, too, but given that he does it several times per day he's almost certainly done it more than everyone he's called out combined.

Also, FSD upgrade secured.

 

[Fact Checking]

I'll never understand why some people chew him out for the jet.

It's the decades old, tried and true method of attacking any global warming opponent via a false narrative of 'double standard' and 'hypocrisy' if they ever rely on existing infrastructure and existing social norms that rely on fossil fuels.

It worked against Al Gore, they are using it against Elon Musk too, not just in the Tesla context, but also via the 'SpaceX is burning a lot of kerosene' talking points - ignoring the fact that there are no electric private jets yet and that are no viable methods at the moment to get off this rock without combusting rocket fuel with oxidant.

But the accuracy of their claims doesn't matter - the slur is part of orchestrated character attacks, and it works by creating a false appearance of hypocrisy and double standard, to the casual observer.