Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[capster]

LOL My first thought was SpaceX for sure but on 2nd thought, I'm not so sure.

Does literally going to the Moon make any business sense? I can think of lots of possibilities but I doubt any of them really make sense for where humanity is right now. Maybe he does mean TSLA.

Ima say SpaceX: Once SpaceX starts to loft Starships into high orbit during tests, why not have one go for a spin out to and around the moon?

Perhaps they could test landing and driving a Tesla autonomousmobile around on the surface too?

They could even test the landing and pre-positioning of supplies, equipment—solar, batteries, ...—and who knows what else.

 

[wtlloyd]

Looking over the European registration numbers (thanks Rob Stark) and it seems like the Y isn’t really being sent yet. Anyone have insight when to expect volume deliveries there?

Commentary here has, over the last two years, settled on Berlin being the sole supplier of MY in Europe. There are unlikely to be any MY shipments via Freemont or Shanghai before Berlin is up and running in 4-6 months.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Ima say SpaceX: Once SpaceX starts to loft Starships into high orbit during tests, why not have one go for a spin out to and around the moon?

Perhaps they could test landing and driving a Tesla autonomousmobile around on the surface too?

They could even test the landing and pre-positioning of supplies, equipment—solar, batteries, ...—and who knows what else.

Imagine seeing footage of the first Cyber truck roaming around the moon; as the next lunar rover with FSD; augmented by remote earth control via Starlink satellite signal relays, and a Tesla solar roof canopy to recharge with.

All delivered on a BFR.

F Marketing.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

This reminds me of the BMW M5 commercial a few years back showing a high speed exotic supercar doing a speed run at Bonneville and as the camara pans away you see the footage is being shot out of an M5 with video equipment attached to the fenders as if it's just another day on the job for an off the shelf M5. Nothing to see here. Meanwhile the supercar execs are thinking we can't even outrun a family sedan.

Now fast forward to the next GM backslapping convention at Vegas. As the corporate minions disembark from the tunnel after their Tesla shuttle, eyes glazed over thinking "we got nothing that compares to this". Then at the exit is the Tesla employment booth handing out job applications.

Same thing for the car conventions as the visitors roaming the halls of the convention center looking at the latest and greatest while they can't get over how futuristic and mind blowing their recent experience in the tunnel was. And then to make matters worse, the guys running the car show won't let Tesla in. No problem, Tesla has their own display booth at each of the 3 stations. Screw em.

Loved that commercial from early 2000s. Back then I said to myself I will one day own a E39 M5. The “car” subject was actually a rocket with wheels.

Now living with EVs there just isn’t much desire to own childhood “dream” cars.

 

[UncaNed]

My buddy that does car reviews and crypto news was recently on Kevin’s show. He too confirmed to me that viewers / algorithm like the shocked faces. So for now it’s here to stay sadly.

Added more shares today to my newly formed self directed 401K. What a gift that I can invest in TSLA in my company retirement account.

I'd LOVE to know more about the demographics those shocked faces attract and/or the viewers they repel*. I'm assuming they attract less-educated people? (Tangentially on topic (reason this Tesla podcaster is actually legit), I hope this is acceptable on weekend hours).

Is this something like how Tucker Carlson always has that odd confused-like expression on his face to attract a certain audience? PLEASE don't anyone take this politically, That's NOT my intent at all.

*In a way analogous to how advertising low discount prices attracts customers who don't seem to care much, but if that business is a price leader how it attracts more involved and engaged customers... Thanks for the insight, @EnzoXYZ

 

[OrthoSurg]

The only reason someone might be concerned that Tesla is ditching radar is because they don't understand how quickly technology is progressing. Specifically, AI vision technology.

Radar would be useful in a fog so intense that it would be impossible to use cameras or vision, making it impossible for other humans to drive safely. That would serve in a world were all cars are FSD and all have radars to detect each other, however it will be useless 99.999% of the time.

@MTL_HABS1909, Tax is collected by government at time of car registration and can be traceable back to purchaser. For OTA update upgrades and T-shirts the tax is collected by Tesla and settled with government each quarter and these purchases are not traceable by government back to the purchaser.

In 2013 Tesla sold a Model S version a 60kWh locked battery to a limit of 40kWh, with purchaser ability to upgrate to the 60kWh at a later date. Tesla also unlocked higher range batteries temporarily during huricane Dorian and the California wildfires. We know this can be done with a simple OTA upgrade.

View attachment 652588

I do not think for a second that Tesla would built their most current popular model with a 94 mile (151km) battery back with no chance of upgrading range, when Elon made decisions to stop producing the Model Y because <250 miles was "unacceptably low".

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The 94 mile (151km) Range has yet to be delivered in Canada, it was only just now made available as an option. Time will tell however I expect battery pack to be upgradeable for this model. If this was never the intent of Tesla to upgrade, and if battery cells are the limiting production factor, Tesla would not make a larger locked battery pack (waste of cells never to be used) and can make almost three times the number of Model 3s with the same number of cells by going with a 151km, battery pack (Standard + is 423km Range), however as Elon has clearly stated, this would be unacceptable.

My last post on this topic. This forum deserves better than us bickering back and forth.

they could have software limited it to 250km.
the purpose of a 150km limited battery is to never, ever, sell this car ever because it is not profitable for Tesla.
however, it made customers the service to have $5000 incentive on the other cars which is extremely positive.
I’m sure Tesla would be ready to offer a future unlockable battery however the Canadian government would see this as an even more dishonest incentive grabbing tactic.

The thing I hate in that whole story is the arbitrary number chose by Canadian government representative to target Tesla to be disqualified by the incentive. Tesla has been playing the game against politics to help customers and I thank Tesla for that. Even if I did not receive the $5000 incentive because I took delivery of my Model 3 2 weeks before the incentive was qualifying new car purchases.

 

[Discoducky]

Removing radar...

Will eliminate the ability of the car to see through the lead car and may reduce safety. But I'd bet the higher likelihood is that Tesla won't make this change until they can see data that shows otherwise. My first meeting with Elon proved that to me back in 2014.

Will the reduce the cars BOM by roughly $200 to $400 as well as reduce weight by 3 to 10 lbs as this includes radar, bracket assembly and wiring harness.

Will save factory build time and reduce software and hardware complexity.

WI'll embolden teams toward the vision only NN model.

Will send a huge message to other autonomous car companies that vision only is achievable in the short term.

 

[UncaNed]

Other than the radar bouncing under the car in front of you, I think if anything it adds to the confusion of the car's perception. I believe it's the primary cause of phantom braking.

And the "see the car in front of the car in front of you" probably already is getting trained for FSD. So yeah, for 99.9% of cases, the radar seems to be dead weight and a hindrance.

I thought shadows cause phantom braking mostly.

Affecting the remaining 00.01 of cases would be very good reason to KEEP radar.

 

[Words of HABIT]

View attachment 652640View attachment 652641
SMR must be happy...

SMR needs to updates his Ts.

 

[UncaNed]

Now that the earnings date has been announced, a shoutout to @The Accountant who is giving us virtually insider trading information that it is an earnings report that will blow the socks off a lot of people with a bunch of all-time high $$$ numbers.

To wit: Near-future quarterly financial projections

Won't @The Accountant 's bullish numbers in this public forum raise expectations and undermine the advantage of actual bullish numbers on the SP?

 

[Buckminster]

Won't @The Accountant 's bullish numbers in this public forum raise expectations and undermine the advantage of actual bullish numbers on the SP?

I thought the accountant was only projecting $515m GAAP profit?

 

[RobStark]

Gali and Shelby Church (1.65M Utube subs) drive through West Los Angeles using FSD Beta.

 

[ggies07]

TLDR: You should watch the whole thing. JB's company Redwood tackling the looming global battery shortage problem

And oh btw, trump card...JB's redwood pretty much exclusively provide recycled material to Panasonic, so basically Tesla exclusive.

The only BS thing I heard in there was from JB when he said EVs are getting cheaper.....*clears throat* excuse me, your former employer just increased the cost of their cars....it's 2021 and there is still not a 30k 200+ EV in the market.

 

[Curt Renz]

Smarter Living: "Have you ever wondered how Elon Musk managed to build 3 revolutionary multibillion dollar companies in completely different fields? Well, he used First Principles."

 

[petit_bateau]

I thought shadows cause phantom braking mostly.

Affecting the remaining 00.01 of cases would be very good reason to KEEP radar.

I think it is the combo of existing poor radar (vertical stripes only) and deep shadow contrast that causes phantom braking.
What Musk et al are saying about radar not being easy to merge with visual is correct, provided that they continue to use poor radar.
One approach is to eliminate the (poor) radar as visual-only is equal safety outcome. Another is to use better (AESA) radars as they will give improved safety outcome.

(AESA radars can give '3D' (xyz) or 4D (xyz,t) or 5D (zyx, t, v) returns* and using track whilst scan and other techniques can also give target-specific refresh rates that - provided they are clever with the software - can merge smoothly with the visual)

(*actually they can do a lot more than that if they get clever - this is a fairly 'normal' issue in a lot of interesting radar design work in some fields, though it has up until now tended to get a lot of security classification)

 

[ggies07]

The only BS thing I heard in there was from JB when he said EVs are getting cheaper.....*clears throat* excuse me, your former employer just increased the cost of their cars....it's 2021 and there is still not a 30k 200+ EV in the market.

Wow...so many dislikes....so I guess you think the prices went down? Wow.....hahahaha.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Wow...so many dislikes....so I guess you think the prices went down? Wow.....hahahaha.

Amazing how you have such a short term memory. I guess you can only focus on the past 1-2 months instead of having the ability to look how much Tesla has dropped their ASP over the past 2-3 years. ......Cannot roll my eyes enough with this crap

 

[dhanson865]

16 people passenger transport system supposedly in the works for the boring tunnel from Tesla. (got to watch the video in which the reporter talks about it)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1380363276823928834

would have already been a thing if not for Covid,

https://twitter.com/x/status/1380308013936873472

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Another subtle message from Elon? 2021 will be a “Goodyear”?

 

[OrthoSurg]

The only BS thing I heard in there was from JB when he said EVs are getting cheaper.....*clears throat* excuse me, your former employer just increased the cost of their cars....it's 2021 and there is still not a 30k 200+ EV in the market.

It went from a 80k big sedan to a 40k medium sedan and will offer a 25k small sedan.

I see a downward trend over 3-5 years periods.