Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UnknownSoldier]

It has been said that Elon pushes his top people out of airplanes and expects them to invent the parachute on the way down.

Ah, so this is how Elon weeds out the slow thinkers at his companies!

 

[Unpilot]

Hello All!

Thank you for this forum and specific thread! I have followed it closely for about a year now, and have gained a lot of insight from valuable viewpoints posted here.

I've followed Tesla closely since their early days, have worked in the automotive industry my whole life (15+ years working) and been a longtime car enthusiast, growing up in Lansing, MI, home to a very large General Motors presence. Went to school at Kettering University (formerly General Motors Institute) in Flint, MI and studied Engineering. I Have worked at numerous tier 1 suppliers to the automotive industry, working directly with and in the facilities of Tesla, General Motors, Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, VW, and Mazda. Have always been into cars, going to car shows, reading car magazines, websites, etc. Also have many friends and family members that work for and in the auto industry and have stakes in dealerships and repair shops.

My wife and I saved money in a savings account for years with the intention of eventually getting a nice car, with my mind mostly on Tesla, especially in recent years. I test drove a Model 3 in spring of 2019 and was sold, but my wife and I couldn't agree, she felt it was too small for our family (2 kids and 2 dogs). Also thought of a used S or X as a new one was out of our price range. We compromised on placing an order for a Model Y. When the time came we got our new Tesla Model Y long range AWD last spring. I was utterly blown away by how great the car was. The cars performance literally blows every other car I've owned or driven out of the water, and by no small margin. I was worried I'd have to drive slow to conserve range, but for all our normal trips this totally isn't necessary. Such a joy to drive and own this car. Have put over 15k miles on it already, taking numerous long road trips. It's so good that I could see myself replacing it with the exact same car in 5 or 10 years time. Really not much that needs to be improved for me, although I'm sure we'll see improvements. After owning and driving many different models from nearly every brand that is sold in the US, driving a Tesla is so refreshing.

Needless to say after a while neither me nor my wife wanted to drive our gas car any more, and she had the idea to trade it in for another Tesla, this time a Model 3. So now we have 2 Tesla's in our garage, solar panels on the roof, and will not be looking back. With our solar panels we were generating excess energy after powering our home and Model Y from mid Feb-Mar this year, which helped convince us another EV made sense. I can't imagine ever buying a gas car again.

I didn't invest in Tesla (or really any other stocks for that matter) until early last year. I'm thankful I bought when I did, and for every time I've ever bought the stock, as it's always turned out to be a good decision long term. I made the mistake of selling at various points, only to watch it rise significantly after doing so, with regret. I still have a very large stake, having moved most of my retirement savings from a 401k into Tesla after taking delivery of the Y last year and immediately falling in love with it. At this point I can't see myself selling a single share again for years, if anything will probably add to my position.

I've looked at some of the EV competition, and I don't have much concern about Tesla's continued dominance. I do hope their EVs are successful and continue to displace ICE vehicles at a fast pace, which will only strengthen Tesla's acceptance as a mainstream vehicle. I've seen some Ford Mach E's on the road and they look nice, I went to a Ford dealer and saw one in person and it just didn't generate the excitement in me that I get from Tesla. I owned a "clean" diesel VW during their emissions scandal, and felt personally embarrassed by it, and can't really stomach even seriously considering their cars right now. I've owned hybrid cars from Toyota, Honda, and Ford, and while I've thought they were good vehicles at the time, the performance just didn't come anywhere close to what Tesla offers. More performance always came with the cost of higher fuel costs and toxic emissions. We can agree or disagree on climate change but cannot deny air pollution and the negative consequences on human health.

I've always wished the automotive industry had done more to shift towards EVs years ago, they've had plenty of botched opportunities to do so. It's so disheartening to tales hear of the GM EV1 and its untimely demise, and seemingly similar stories of the oil industries tight grip on the auto industry. There has been so much skepticism and denial about any real alternative, and still is a lot today even when Tesla has clearly demonstrated a working solution with virtually no compromise. Building vehicles that really leave nothing to be desired whatsoever. Literally the only regret I have is not buying a Tesla sooner.

I'd love to see all legacy OEMs switch to exclusively building EVs, and it seems like thats the way things are headed, but at this point its a race for second place, Tesla will easily hold top position for years. Elon Musk has done an amazing job of building this company, and even if he were gone today, the company he put in place and what they have on the market today will endure for a long time. The existing lineup already cements them as the Apple of cars, add in Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster and this is going to get crazy!

Sorry for the long winded post, if it belongs somewhere else on the forum feel free to move it. I felt I have a unique viewpoint, being so entrenched in the automotive world my whole life. I'll probably be driving in "chill" a bit more for a while now, watching the ticker less, and just enjoying life, soaking up the sun. Thanks and cheers to all!

Welcome to the collective.

I and many others here were "buy the car...buy the stock".

Keep your diamond hands and you will be rewarded.

Maybe even a island...or mountain...but really who wants a mountain.

 

[dl003]

I also appreciate Elon's transparency. However, he should have realized a long time ago "best information available" at a given moment is a moving target. Especially with AP.

IMO, in order to manage expectations better, Elon should avoid giving specific timeframes for FSD releases.

I hear you, but let's consider the flip side: Elon is a one man PR powerhouse. His 50 million followers offer more reach, for free, than any news outlet. Do we think he'd have as many if he was conservative against his nature? People are excited because he gives them something to look forward to and that'd be hard to do if he's not willing to give them a timeline. I guess what I'm trying to say is he's built a brand for himself and, by extension, Tesla, and that brand is not about underpromising or managing expectations. It's about setting goals so unachievable that his people fail most of the time to meet the deadlines. But the important thing is they always get it done in the end. I'd like to look at his tweets as a window into Elon Musk who wears his heart on his sleeve and not just a CEO. That appeals to people.

 

[Krugerrand]

Thats a good way to get to replace a good portion of your top performers each year.

I disagreed because that is a blanket statement that just doesn’t apply to all. There certainly is a portion of the population who would find it unacceptable and some of them might be good performers. It’s ok for those individuals not to work at Tesla at all or for long. We wouldn’t want them working there; they aren’t suitable individuals for such an important and difficult task. I’d argue vehemently that top performing people actually thrive under such demands and that it’s ‘ordinary’ individuals who do not.

 

[Tam]

News from Novermber: Second biggest contract electronics manufacturer set up shop in the US just for Tesla:

Tesla Supplier Pegatron To Make Components For The EV Maker In Texas: Report - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Pegatron Corp has chosen a site in El Paso Texas, Texas to build a facility that will supply components for Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA), Reuters reported on Tuesday — citing a Taiwanese newspaper.

www.benzinga.com

 

[Words of HABIT]

Bullish

Matchbox's new Tesla Roadster toy is made from 99% recyclable materials

Mattel says all Matchbox toys and playsets will use fully recyclable plastic materials by 2030.

www.cnet.com

Matchbox cars get green makeover in eco drive

The toymaker is launching new cars based on electric models and making some from recycled materials.

www.bbc.com

Mattel Matchbox Gas station playsets will now include EV Chargers.

 

[Cattledog]

...but really who wants a mountain.

I did. 5.76 acres of one to be exact, in Telluride. Thx Elon.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Daily update on closing prices of AI As A Service (AIaaS) stocks:

MSFT: 1.53%
NVDA: 5.63%
IBM : (0.038%)
GOOG : 1.85%
AMZN : 1.38%
TSLA : 0.90%

Dojo Arigato!

There is no next Tesla.
TSLA +0.90%
NIO: -3.67%
XPEV -4.53%
LI - 6.73%
CCIV -7.41%
WKHS -7.47%
NKLA -9.53%
QS -12.24%

 

[Cattledog]

Depending on your perspective it's either a towering strength or a glaring weakness (or more realistically some of both) that they go ahead SUPREMELY confident in the approach they're sure must be right even if they haven't actually figured out if it is yet....

At least as of today, the market has voted the former over the latter when you compare Tesla to its far more conventional peers. I'm betting, as are many (literally,) that it stays that way.

 

[Singuy]

There is no next Tesla.
TSLA +0.90%
NIO: -3.67%
XPEV -4.53%
LI - 6.73%
CCIV -7.41%
WKHS -7.47%
NKLA -9.53%
QS -12.24%

You forgot some

Hyliion -6.58%
Lordstown Motors -9.85%
Fisker -4.71%

Basically anything EV related right now is cancer besides Tesla. Think the market is transitioning from speculation stocks to at least some cash flow positive ones.

 

[MC3OZ]

Thats not how it works here with Tesla in Australia. I still have my email from Tesla with the pdf invoice attached. The invoice contained a bank account number unique to our account. We had to do a bank transfer electronically from our bank into that account with the full outstanding purchase balance.

That email could easily have been intercepted and the pdf changed to show a different account. Plus our banks don't check that the account name and number being transferred to match each other. We were aware of this being a potential issue nearly a couple of years ago so checked that the account number was correct before making the transfer. It would be great if Tesla Australia followed a system like it appears the US has, but alas.

Tesla just needs to formalise something like the process I used:-

1. Download invoice from online account - cross check all relevant details with email account.
2. Do a test deposit of $1,000 - 2-3 days later sign on to Tesla account, inspect HTML, and verify test deposit has worked.
3. Make progressive payments with periodic checks...
4. Do a final check all is paid, and verify with Tesla.

The might not want to encourage progressive payments, but there is no reason for the account balance field to be hidden on the screen, it should be clearly visible.

Another option is Tesla could accept Australian Bank Cheques, a Bank Cheque here is a paper representation of a large suitcase full of cash. Whenever I carry a large bank cheque around I'm mindful of that, you don't want to lose it..

But in the modern internet era, progressive payments with a online balance check is the superior solution, it worked fine for me.

 

[mltv]

You forgot some

Hyliion -6.58%
Lordstown Motors -9.85%
Fisker -4.71%

Basically anything EV related right now is cancer besides Tesla. Think the market is transitioning from speculation stocks to at least some cash flow positive ones.

GOEV Canoo Inc. -8.68%
LIDAR:
LAZR Lumina -7.61%
VLDR Velodyne Lidar +1.8%
FCEL -12.28%
PLUG -7.61%

Yes very nasty for the next TSLA

 

[Singuy]

Sorry, but that's bad logic. You can try all the other methods, fail to solve FSD, and still come to the conclusion that solving general AI must be a requirement (read that as pre-requisite) to solving FSD.

So no, FSD isn't solved yet. The pre-requisites were simply identified and confirmed.

You can't come to that conclusion. There are infinite amount of methods, most haven't been developed. So you can't say anything is certain unless you already reached your answer. Also who to say you can't solve FSD without solving general AI first? You can have more confidence in that stance only if you solved FSD with general AI and it has been a many years later no other people have solved it without solving general AI first.

Now I'm in the camp that Tesla haven't solved FSD. However it's weird for Elon to be this certain, like the angels of future time travel visited him in his sleep and told him out of the infinite possibilities of solving FSD, none will get him there unless solving general AI first.

 

[ZsoZso]

Welcome to the collective.

I and many others here were "buy the car...buy the stock".

Keep your diamond hands and you will be rewarded.

Maybe even a island...or mountain...but really who wants a mountain.

I was more like: buy the car, then buy the stock, then buy another car, then buy a lot more stock, then reserve the cybertruck, then buy MOAR stock....

What about a mountain that is an island, making it very hard to access & invade ?!

Spoiler

 

[FireMedic]

You forgot some

Hyliion -6.58%
Lordstown Motors -9.85%
Fisker -4.71%

Basically anything EV related right now is cancer besides Tesla. Think the market is transitioning from speculation stocks to at least some cash flow positive ones.

And...
FUV -5.73%
RIDE -9.48%

 

[hd-2]

So apologies for my terrible art- but there are tons of spots all around the car with no redundancy either at all, or beyond a given distance.

See all the spots (roughly) circled in red only with 1 camera coverage.

View attachment 654114

Do you consider instantaneous vision in this case (a single frame, interpreted one at a time) or do you take into account the "4D" strategy of vision over time, where something that was in a frame is in shallow memory for FSD?

 

[Thekiwi]

Oh darn - the Infrastructure bill that contains the new EV tax credit is perhaps quite some time away from even passing the house, let alone the senate. from Politico:


"Adding to the complexity of the entire situation is that Congress has no explicit deadline for the infrastructure bill. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is eyeing July for House passage, but the real deadline for the full package may be the end of September, when current surface transportation policy expires."

 

[dww12]

And...
FUV -5.73%
RIDE -9.48%

Wow, I had not really checked on any of the other EVs and “next Teslas” in a month or two. Their one and two year charts look absolutely horrible with no end to breaking down in sight. Tesla’s 1 and 2yr looks awesome and ready to rally after a rest.

 

[dww12]

Oh darn - the Infrastructure bill that contains the new EV tax credit is perhaps quite some time away from even passing the house, let alone the senate. from Politico:


"Adding to the complexity of the entire situation is that Congress has no explicit deadline for the infrastructure bill. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is eyeing July for House passage, but the real deadline for the full package may be the end of September, when current surface transportation policy expires."

Taking that off the table is better for Tesla. Too much Osborning.

 

[Paul_SF]

As I was watching all those M3 and MY in Shanghai, waiting to get loaded for transport, it occurred to me that Tesla will need a different way to transport the CyberTruck. I don’t think it will fit in a regular car hauler. Anyone knows if it does and any ideas how they will ship them?