Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Oh dear. What could possibly go wrong?

So Elon is going to spend a week partying with the cool kids in NYC. What's wrong with that?

Remind me when was the last time he had a week off. He's MOAR than earned it. Let him have fun.

 

[SO16]

So Elon is going to spend a week partying with the cool kids in NYC. What's wrong with that?

Remind me when was the last time he had a week off. He's MOAR than earned it. Let him have fun.

Perhaps the following Monday could be a good buying opportunity like we had after the JR Joint.

 

[StapleGun]

You missed the part where all new solar installs are coupled with Powerwall. It simplifies the installation with regard to inverters. This dovetails nicely.

Choose your “burn” option: grid or mining depending on localized re-sell rates.

That's what I was hinting at : ) Another burn option would be acting as a node on Dojo. Although that would require the Dojo hardware to be economical at a small scale. Anyone know whether Dojo hardware makes economic sense as a distributed set of nodes instead of a data center?

The key first principle here is that using excess energy for compute is more valuable than sending excess energy to the grid.

 

[FastCompany]

Have you noticed how Telsa is becoming a licenced grid provider in several european countries? VPPs will include cars: (its the bty chem changes we've been waiting for)

I will not be surprised at some point in the future to learn that there were multiple benefits as a result of these recent changes in the solar program. Simplified application process and quicker activations ? Improved efficiency with Tesla inverters ? Easier site support with all TE products including pv? Easier to stage a stealthily growing network of residential and business power generation and integrated backup that could be consolidated and activated as Virtual Power plants when Tesla gets a regional Utility license in an area, or packaged and sold to existing Utilities that buy MegaPack/AutoBidder ?

Elon mentioned that a 100 mile x 100 mile plot of land covered in pv would be enough to power the entire US. Distributing such a power plant across the county on business and residential roof-tops is Elon's end-run around the existing grid/transmission paradigm, imo.

 

[CorneliusXX]

This is spot on.

I don't think most folks understand how drastically the transition to sustainable energy will affect everything, including taxation. Once energy is essentially free the tax burden to support existing systems will be reduced by the amount that accounts for the change in energy costs. This amount is significant as energy is the foundation of nearly every aspect of our world. Reduce that cost and the cost of living nosedives.

Plus, clean air.

One item I am wondering is how the impact of crypo mining will impact this. I used to think that at some point energy would essentially be free as solar/wind would become so cheap to produce and so abundant that the surplus would drive the cost down to the newer lower cost of production.

But now we can convert energy into money. There is essentially never a permanent excess as it is economic for crypto miners to convert the excess energy into money as soon as it drops below a certain rate.

Does this put a permanent floor under the cost of energy? Will it end up taking some of the arbitrage opportunities of autobidder/battery storage?

 

[FastCompany]

That's what I was hinting at : ) Another burn option would be acting as a node on Dojo. Although that would require the Dojo hardware to be economical at a small scale. Anyone know whether Dojo hardware makes economic sense as a distributed set of nodes instead of a data center?

The key first principle here is that using excess energy for compute is more valuable than sending excess energy to the grid.

Maybe Tesla decided to make use of all of the spare NVidia HW2.5 boards they have laying around and are adding them to Powerwalls.

 

[CorneliusXX]

So Elon is going to spend a week partying with the cool kids in NYC. What's wrong with that?

Remind me when was the last time he had a week off. He's MOAR than earned it. Let him have fun.

Agree he deserves his fun, but it feels almost certain that he's going to say something to get people into an uproar. Perhaps we should start a pool on which section of society will get upset.

 

[UncaNed]

My dream:
1). Tri -motor uber-long-range CT (pre-ordered)
2). Spacious pop-up or add-on camper
3). Built-in deployable stove tops and coolers (Rivian-style)
4). Monthly FSD subscription
5). Deployable StarLink
6). Superchargers outside every National Park.

With that well-appointed a Cybertruck, I could happily live in my garage during power outages.

...pre-ordered mine too.

 

[jerry33]

Not really in this case though.

ICE drivers literally pay by the mile via a gasoline tax... and that $ goes directly to funding roads.

EV drivers do not.

So that missing $ has to come from somewhere

Most states have chose to get it via a tax at registration time, since that keeps it car-related by putting the funds into the DMV fees kitty which (in my state, and most AFAIK) also specifically goes toward road funding.




I'm not sure how things are taxed where you live.

But here there's no special "electricity tax" that goes to "grid maintenance"

Not sure I've heard of that anywhere else.

The $31.89 is basically for grid maintenance. It's not called a tax, but it basically is.

 

[SunCatcher]

So Elon is going to spend a week partying with the cool kids in NYC. What's wrong with that?

Remind me when was the last time he had a week off. He's MOAR than earned it. Let him have fun.

Well I totally agree! Bring it! Elon gets to have fun. Tesla gets free advertising. Legacy automakers get to pay for the commercials that pay for it all.
And any and all fallout will be nothing out of the ordinary. Exciting times ahead for all of us!

 

[SunCatcher]

With that well-appointed a Cybertruck, I could happily live in my garage during power outages.

...pre-ordered mine too.

Why not make it full time? Substitute CT for Maserati and you have a beautiful sculpture right in your living room!

 

[JRP3]

How about ads in Japan so Tesla can sell more than 5k units in Japan in 2021

I didn't know Tesla had a bunch of unsold vehicles sitting around looking for buyers.

 

[reardencode]

I will not be surprised at some point in the future to learn that there were multiple benefits as a result of these recent changes in the solar program. Simplified application process and quicker activations ? Improved efficiency with Tesla inverters ? Easier site support with all TE products including pv? Easier to stage a stealthily growing network of residential and business power generation and integrated backup that could be consolidated and activated as Virtual Power plants when Tesla gets a regional Utility license in an area, or packaged and sold to existing Utilities that buy MegaPack/AutoBidder ?

Elon mentioned that a 100 mile x 100 mile plot of land covered in pv would be enough to power the entire US. Distributing such a power plant across the county on business and residential roof-tops is Elon's end-run around the existing grid/transmission paradigm, imo.

Let's not forget that for space limited installs (my future) the 2-5% efficiency improvement in battery round trip might make the difference between being energy self sufficient in winter and not.

 

[jbcarioca]

The choice to advertise isn't spend $0 per car sold or $2k.

Tesla could spend $50 per car this year and have an advertising budget of $50M. And no you don't have to spend $5M per 30 second ad in the Super Bowl. There are cheaper more effective choices.

Tesla first paid advertisements would generate a lot free press on top of that. More so if they are good/clever ads. How about educating the public on AutoPilot and FSD? And increase sales of FSD.

This would be more effective than the "advertising" of talking heads taking a dump on Tesla because of the Texas crash or the Chinese Auto Show lady.

How about ads in Japan so Tesla can sell more than 5k units in Japan in 2021, establish a beachhead and put pressure on Toyota?

No, Mach-e is almost certainly not being sold at a loss.

I disagree on several points but the biggest one is the core assumption that mass advertising is a productive technique in the 21st century. We've gone over that tired issue many times in this thread but people persist in assuming that 1980's era mass advertising is useful at all.

As for the assumption that Ford is making money on Mach-e, that is a different subject with some dramatic cost accounting assumptions. Amortizing the development budget alone would probably preclude profitable sales. Ford clearly expects to eventually amortize that R&D over much higher production volumes of other models.

It will take quite some time before we can assess the Ford P&L for Mach-e.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Perhaps the following Monday could be a good buying opportunity like we had after the JR Joint.

On June 20, 2025 EVERY day this year is going to look like a 'good buying opportunity'.

Let Elon have recharge his bty.

 

[kbM3]

50% over street with a focus on Return On Invested Capital of 15% (per quarter?)

The focus on ROIC is the difference between the street and Tsla stock owners.

I liked Mayur’s analysis, but I question his optimism on one aspect he mentioned regarding China margin.

paraphrasing: He stated that GigaShanghai CapEx expenses were already hitting the books in q4. In Q1 since that CapEx can now be amortized or depreciated for Model Y in addition, margins should be much higher.

But my understanding is that there was basically a brand new Model Y factory in Shanghai (phase 2) and those expenses would not have been incurred back in q4 before the first Model Y’s were built (except maybe the depreciation for the land?). So if I’m correct, Model Y margins won’t be that great in Q1 because of the ramp. I’m sure they’ll be positive, but nothing like we’ll see in q2 and beyond.

 

[phantasms]

So Elon is going to spend a week partying with the cool kids in NYC. What's wrong with that?

Remind me when was the last time he had a week off. He's MOAR than earned it. Let him have fun.

Agreed! A girl I went to high school with is/was an SNL producer. I just asked for a ticket. Fingers crossed.

I think this, in the long run, will be excellent for Elon, Tesla, and TSLA.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Agree he deserves his fun, but it feels almost certain that he's going to say something to get people into an uproar. Perhaps we should start a pool on which section of society will get upset.

Okay to summarize, the world is deep in the grip of a multi-year pandemic, there is wide-spread denial of the most basic science in the first world (which would solve both the health and climate crises), but we need to worry about Elon upsetting some folks?

Riiight....

 

[Words of HABIT]

Weekend OT:
View attachment 656733
Hope it gives you a smile...

[All credit to the artist that did this...it works on multiple levels]

 

[dhanson865]

Why not make it full time? Substitute CT for Maserati and you have a beautiful sculpture right in your living room!

View attachment 656804

That living room is just begging for a Ferris Bueller style accident.