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18 months is end of 2022.

So will those 1.5 million Ys in 2022 all be 2170 or something? Thought Berlin at least was 100% for sure 4680 and Austin Y and CT was expected to be too?
The 4680 form factor can presumably be built by battery suppliers using different methods to what Tesla is trying to perfect (eg using traditional wet electrode process etc), so maybe it is possible Berlin and Austin could use non-Tesla 4680 cells. The downside of course is that those non-testa cells would cost more and perhaps have less range or other attributes?
 
Neat move. Then all they need is to rename Autopilot to OttoPilot and they are done with the media / EU-complaint circus.

Which would be short for the full name of: "OttoPilot - Not An Autopilot", you know, just to be consistent with SpaceX's offerings.

Frankly, Elon missed a trick by not calling it OttoPilot from the beginning!
 
OK about 45 minutes into the call Zach says, and I quote very unexactly:

"we are heavy into 4680 development that Drew and team are working on and the structural battery pack that goes along with that. These are new technologies ... so we're investing heavily in the r&d side to work out those kinks and spend along in those areas should continue over time as we continue to work on development."
Elon has said Berlin would be the first to use the structural battery pack. I think it has been presumed that this structural pack would be built around 4680 cells. We find in the call that it could be 12-18 months for the 4680's to be in volume production. If the 4680s are not ready by the time Berlin is I wonder if they can use 2170's in the structural pack.
 
Tesla hit 1 million cars around March/April 2020. Meaning they finished the year somewhere around 1.3-1.4ish million.

601k-701k in 2021 would get you over 2 million.

That's not useful guidance, as everyone is expecting MORE than 601k-701k in 2021.
I don't believe the actual baseline matters that much in this case. Elon set the baseline in his mind when he stated 1 million and added his expected 1 million production to get to 2 million. It's the differential in Elons mind that counts, think of it as a Fruedian slip. So I still see this as an implied acknowledgement of an internal 1M production target for 2021.
 
For those worried they won't be able to purchase stand-alone Powerwalls, there was this on Page 9 of the release:

Energy Storage Q1.jpg


"As we increase our production rate, we may make it available once again as a stand-alone product."

So the situation linking Powerwall and Solar sales is only temporary while they are production constrained. As soon as battery supply and powerwall production ramps up they should make them available as stand-alone products again.
 
Elon has said Berlin would be the first to use the structural battery pack. I think it has been presumed that this structural pack would be built around 4680 cells. We find in the call that it could be 12-18 months for the 4680's to be in volume production. If the 4680s are not ready by the time Berlin is I wonder if they can use 2170's in the structural pack.

I don't think structural packs need to be 4680 cells, I'm sure Rivian had end cooled 2170s.

But a more conventional path is 4680s from other suppliers.

We need exact quote it was something like "18 months from volume production" and "not quite ready yet to go into cars".

But previously we were told Fremont 4680s would initially go into Berlin Model Ys.

There are 3 possibilities here for initial Berlin Model Y production:-
  1. 2170s
  2. 4680s from external suppliers
  3. 4680s from Fremont
I'm not sure which of these 3 options they will use...

I think Berlin Model Y has to have castings and a structural pack, they don't have the robots or floor space, for a more conventional production process?
 
I don't think structural packs need to be 4680 cells, I'm sure Rivian had end cooled 2170s.

But a more conventional path is 4680s from other suppliers.

We need exact quote it was something like "18 months from volume production" and "not quite ready yet to go into cars".

But previously we were told Fremont 4680s would initially go into Berlin Model Ys.

There are 3 possibilities here for initial Berlin Model Y production:-
  1. 2170s
  2. 4680s from external suppliers
  3. 4680s from Fremont
I'm not sure which of these 3 options they will use...

I think Berlin Model Y has to have castings and a structural pack, they don't have the robots or floor space, for a more conventional production process?
Can ship 2170 packs to Berlin to seed the production just like Giga Shanghai.