Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kengchang]

Don't forget April China numbers will likely be out next week at some point. They'll essentially guarantee Q2 will be a 200k quarter and if they show decent expansion of production of the MIC Y, then 210k P/D becomes very likely if not conservative.

Typically the 2nd week, not the 1st

 

[joh01652]

TSLA's graph is really very interesting today. No volume, but very volatile.

Well let's see how Consumer Reports takes this response post on THEIR stream

Feel free to use this original Tweet to share/ repost anywhere you feel appropriate - This smear/ FUD campaign needs to stop - see my previous post on TMC re the Tesla smear campaign


For example, this is the Tweet I reposted on CR's Twitter stream. https://twitter.com/alexisdetoc/status/1387788264518692867

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More on ExxonMobil's stream, the WSJ and others to follow - join the fight and share or repost/ riposte!


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Haha, you're making me want to start a Twitter account just so I can troll Old Auto, Old Energy and other Old Money FUDsters.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I came across a piece of California legislation today (AB 794) that Tesla is opposing. It appears - I've only skimmed it - that it would tie EV manufacturer eligibility for participation in state EV incentive programs to workforce standards and domestic location of final assembly. It's sponsored and supported by unions.

Link for those who want some light reading. I recommend the committee analysis (see the appropriate tab on the link) for a much more readable format and background information.

I think Tesla diversifying outside of California was a very prudent decision.

 

[Big Time]

Thx for all the encouragement and different viewpoints. I still have the same conviction I had when I bought my first share. Elon is a great leader and is unconventional and I know that, always have. Some days are tough, once my work picks back up again my confidence in tmrw will be more certain. Things stack up and it gets tough, that’s what the FUD wants. Thanks to those offering views w/ a disagree rather than just a disagree.

Better days ahead, getting 2nd Covid jab today maybe I’ll bend over for the 2nd time today and have them do spur of the moment colonoscopy.

 

[dl003]

I'm reading the sentiment on this forum, and it's pretty dismal. Various forecasts here suggest Q3/Q4 return to "normal."

This means... I'm calling bottom at $668.5 because, if this crowd is feeling defeated, it's actually a GREAT time to buy. Yields are coming off their highs today. I'm bullish here... but check back tomorrow.

I'm perfectly fine. Longer the wait, sweeter the revenge. And I'm a vengeful person.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

I'm on record for being bullish for year-end share price (see below). However I did not make a prediction here on the near term share price. I told my sister about 6 weeks ago that I thought the share price would stay in the 600 - 900 range until December, then start a rapid climb.

The main reason for this is as stated below, it will take until December for analysts to recognise FSD, robotaxi, Model 2 and production ramp, and plug those into their models. Even though some of the information will be available earlier, it will be discounted because of FUD for many months.

Someone asked for year end share price predictions, my last two (above) have been fairly prescient so I'll try again, get it totally wrong and loose my winning streak.

I think there will be a peak of about $3,500 around Q4 earnings (mid-January 2022), year end will be in the midst of the run-up so about $2,500.

The reason for this is a mixture of FSD, robotaxi, Model 2 and production ramp. By mid December analysts will have plugged Q4 and year production and delivery estimates into their models and come up with blow-out expectations, there will be clear paths to double production in 2022 and again in 2023, it will also be obvious that the energy business is growing even faster than automotive. With FSD at or near level 5 and Tesla network roll-out occurring even if not operational, analysts will be starting to make estimates of robotaxi revenue.

After this I think the stock will be overvalued and will take a year or two to catch up, so a fall down to under $2,000 then spending a couple of years wandering around between $2,000 and $4,000 while Tesla's earnings increase enough to justify its valuation.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

2. Energy margins are even worst than q4 which means Tesla can't provide the cheap solar and make good margins like we have hoped. Also news that megapack margins are apparently awful too.

I take mildly sarcastic offense to this statement. In what universe is the Energy side scaled and looking to be profitable? Given the recent turn to overall profitability and bulletproofness, Tesla needs to be focused on whatever makes the most rapid progress on the Energy side. This gains us the same advantages as what was done with Automotive over the last 10 years, but the energy market is what......1000x bigger? Maybe more?

Knocking solar installs down to a straight $2/Watt online was genius. The reason home solar isn't massive in the US is the likes of Sunrun and all the other guys flooding the market with sales cost(and the accompanying FUD). Tesla installing without sales effort, at only a meager loss, pushed the market forward MUCH more rapidly. AND it differentiated Tesla in a way that IMO would have flooded us with marketshare in the very near future.

My assumption is that these recent residential pivots are more geared toward the functionality and evolution of the product rather than lack of traction while operating at a loss. That's my hope anyway. Elon has likely come to the realization that doing the solar install isn't in their longterm vision. True already in CA, but not yet elsewhere IMO.

And there aren't enough cells to make megapack profitable. Obvi! But soon there will be. Drop in cheap cells and BOOM......you're the Apple of energy storage and already halfway scaled.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Well one (GM) went bankrupt in 08 and one (Ford) saw it coming and did what had to be done to keep from going bankrupt.

Ford took a $6B loan from US Government in 2009 and still has yet to fully pay it off, otherwise they would have went bankrupt too. GM and Ford are in the same boat and they have again become to take on water.

Ford took $6B government loan in 2009 — and debt still haunts company

Ford isn't alone in the struggle, but it entered 2020 reporting a much smaller-than-expected profit than its competitors.

www.freep.com

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Wonder how much Ford paid for this tweet:

 

[Big Time]

Wonder how much Ford paid for this tweet:

View attachment 658063

You mean how much did the US taxpayers pay for the tweet.

 

[CanadaEV]

Wonder how much Ford paid for this tweet:

View attachment 658063

There seems to be so much apology in all quarters for the EV credits. I don't get it.
The credits should be celebrated by everyone, bulls and bears alike.
Of course Tesla is going to use them to reduce prices and build capacity. Why else would they exist?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The call spread is almost always the better option than a straight LEAP as long as you're happy to see it to near expiry. You can always lower the bottom end of the spread to reduce risk for a small reduction in return. The share price would have to run up to around $2,150 before the straight LEAP would provide a better return on investment than the spread. But then at that point you can always roll the spread up and out wider to say 1250/1700 to get about 50% extra profit on the spread. So the spread will almost always give the better return. The main advantage of the straight LEAP over the spread is its value appreciates faster so you can sell the LEAP early for a good profit if the share price shoots up.

Edit: Also in agreement with what @Dancing Lemur said above.

Two quick questions on this bull spread scenario:

1) A straight LEAP is easier to sell at profit on a bit of SP appreciation, but a bull spread of say 1000/1300 still maxes out if SP crosses ~1400, no? If I jump into these, I cash out with 99% of max profit if we hit max joy in 6 months rather than 26, correct?

2) I assume a buy/sell spread like this on a non-dividend stock doesn't require you tie up shares or cash to cover the position?

Thanks all for the insights on these spreads today. Taking my options game to another much more logical and moderated place!

Edit: Also, anyone know why I can't seem to place this multi-leg options order on the Fidelity platform? I'm gonna go see if it's easier on Active Trader.
[Answered: Apparently for Fidelity IRA accounts, you need Level 2 options approval(which I have), but then you need to go back and request "Spread Trading" and get approval for that separately. Unclear why.]

 

[Curt Renz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1387799220246261771

 

[FireMedic]

Wonder how much Ford paid for this tweet:

View attachment 658063

If old fashioned is what you’re going for instead of superior products and exponential growth; I guess we gotta call this one as a win for F

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Ha, this is true. I bet the PR geniuses at ford cannot even see how having the terms FORD and OLD FASHIONED together is actually not the best thing in the world.
EV tax credits only exist because legacy auto would prefer to be fined than make sustainable cars. This is entirely *their choice*. Elon showed them how to make EVs over a decade ago and they deliberately ignored what was coming. Now that stupidity costs them billions. Good.

 

[eloder]

1) A straight LEAP is easier to sell at profit on a bit of SP appreciation, but a bull spread of say 1000/1300 still maxes out if SP crosses ~1400, no? If I jump into these, I cash out with 99% of max profit if we hit max joy in 6 months rather than 26, correct?

If you have a spread, it's hard to get out ahead of time because both legs go up. For example, back in January I had a fully ITM spread that would expire in June, but if I sold it then I would have only realized about half the profit. In this particular case, it is possible I may not get *anything* from that spread, whereas I could have sold it in late January for full profit. Plan to hold to expiration if you do a spread, and account for the fact that Tesla can halve or double itself in just a few months' time (i.e., right when your spread expires).

 

[Curt Renz]

The 10-yr treasury yield shot up again at the opening this morning, but has pulled back significantly from the early high. High yields particularly hurt the net asset valuations of growth stocks like TSLA. The production outlook from Ford is a further drag on auto stocks today. And in the morning a number of large retail stockholders may have been scared away by Biden's request that Congress raise the capital gains tax rate. That retail dumping may already have run its course, and institutions could now be taking advantage.

 

[thx1139]

I take mildly sarcastic offense to this statement. In what universe is the Energy side scaled and looking to be profitable? Given the recent turn to overall profitability and bulletproofness, Tesla needs to be focused on whatever makes the most rapid progress on the Energy side. This gains us the same advantages as what was done with Automotive over the last 10 years, but the energy market is what......1000x bigger? Maybe more?

Knocking solar installs down to a straight $2/Watt online was genius. The reason home solar isn't massive in the US is the likes of Sunrun and all the other guys flooding the market with sales cost(and the accompanying FUD). Tesla installing without sales effort, at only a meager loss, pushed the market forward MUCH more rapidly. AND it differentiated Tesla in a way that IMO would have flooded us with marketshare in the very near future.

My assumption is that these recent residential pivots are more geared toward the functionality and evolution of the product rather than lack of traction while operating at a loss. That's my hope anyway. Elon has likely come to the realization that doing the solar install isn't in their longterm vision. True already in CA, but not yet elsewhere IMO.

And there aren't enough cells to make megapack profitable. Obvi! But soon there will be. Drop in cheap cells and BOOM......you're the Apple of energy storage and already halfway scaled.

Also said that nature of the energy business the projects are all COGS until projects complete and paid for. A project may be nothing but expense for a couple quarters and then boom all revenue the next. Like that project in Texas may have started Q4 and complete in Q2. Was really just expense in Q4 and Q1 and in Q2 it becomes revenue when project paid for.

 

[MXWing]

What has Tesla's longest losing streak been in recent month? On track for 3 losing days in a row so hope for a green finish tomorrow. And a finish below 700 would seem odd.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

This means... I'm calling bottom at $668.5 because, if this crowd is feeling defeated, it's actually a GREAT time to buy. Yields are coming off their highs today. I'm bullish here... but check back tomorrow.

Ok, I must know. How did you call that TO THE PENNY? Did you put in a buy order for 10M shares?