Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Like everyone I'm only guessing, but in relation to FSD pricing, a tiered structure based on miles of usage per month occurs to me.
I say that because Tesla doesn't want people operating 'Stealth Robo-taxis"
Assuming a Robo-Taxi drives 200 miles per day at $1 with a 50 cent profit margin,
The Robo-taxi makes $100 per day or $36,000 per year.
The Robo-taxi drives around 6,000 miles per month - I'll call that tier unlimited miles.
Other tiers are 250 miles, 500,miles, 1000 miles, 2000 miles.

Miles only count when FSD is engaged, drivers get a warning if when keeping FSD engaged would tip them over to a higher price tier.
For the high end unlimited miles option, I can see Elon keeping his promise and increasing the price of FSD to $15,000.
I'll assume monthly payments over 5 years correspond to that amount :- $250 per month.

For the low end 250 miles subscription, Tesla wants customers to try it, so $20 per month,.,,
My guess would be 500 Miles $40, 1000 Miles $75, 2000 Miles $150

Tiered pricing can be multiplied back to get the purchase price for the lifetime of the car:-
250 Miles = $1,000
500 Miles = $2,400
1000 Miles = $4,500
2000 Miles = $9,000
Obviously if a driver exceeds their miles, they get a warning and pay the difference in monthly subscription for that..
e.g purchased 500 miles per month, exceed 500 miles extra cost for that month 75-40 = $35 (+ possible $5 fee)

I'm only guessing ... but we need to balance the 2 considerations ..
A Robo-taxi can earn around $30,000 per year, and what people want to pay for private FSD use.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm interested in that camper (I want the freedom of movement), but I'm definitely putting the truck to work. Track, mud, pulling crap etc. I just wish I could get a boring flamethrower and add it to a gunrack.

You can get almost anything that exists for the right price:

The Boring Company Not A Flamethrower + Box Manuel + $5 Letter #10723 | eBay

Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for The Boring Company Not A Flamethrower + Box Manuel + $5 Letter #10723 at the best online prices at eBay! Free shipping for many products!

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Personally, I think it would be cool to have a robotic arm bolted to one side of the bed. Or how about a Boston Robotics robotic dog you could train to jump out of the bed, run in circles until you threw a cyber frisbee to fetch. It would have to ride in the open bed and look forward around the cab into the wind as you were driving along. Bonus points if it switches sides of the cab every 15 or 20 seconds.

 

[mongo]

As i understand it, annualized merely means a single quarter hits $13.75B not that the year hits $55B. However I just looked at the tranches and it seemed to just specify a revenue of $55B without the term annualized. I wonder if Pierre added that unintentionally, or if that’s the actual benchmark?

From the plan:

  “Revenue” means total Tesla revenues as reported in our financial statements on Forms 10-Q or 10-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) for the previous four consecutive fiscal quarters.

So a full 4 quarters, not 4x one quarter.

Also, just to confirm, once a level is reached, it counts even if it later is not satisfied.

A Market Capitalization Milestone and an Operational Milestone that are matched together can be achieved at different points in time and vesting will occur at the later of the achievement certification dates for such Market Capitalization Milestone and Operational Milestone. Subject to any applicable clawback provisions, policies or other forfeiture terms, once a milestone is achieved, it is forever deemed achieved for determining the vesting of a tranche.

 

[StealthP3D]

Real adventures go where a trailer won’t fit.
Good to see the price finally go back up a bit, sucked to see the drop after such a good earnings report, sucked even more that I had no powder for the big dip..

Real adventures go where a Jeep can't. Remote glaciers, canyon creeks, old-growth forests, wild rivers, alpine meadows. And before you tell me a Jeep can go to all of those places, you might ask how I define "remote". Right,, not accessible by motorized transport.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

New revenue stream!

Official - Pedestrian warning system retrofits now...

teslaownersonline.com

(granted it's a somewhat narrow band of customers)

Why would anyone WANT this? Sigh. I have to keep my 2018 AWD 3 forever because not only did I pay for FSD on it, I also don't have the stupid pedestrian noisemaker nor do I ever want one. I would love for an opportunity to upgrade to a later build down the road for the improvements added since 2018 but I literally can't because FSD doesn't transfer and I hate the stupid noisemakers.

edit: I'm actually also grandfathered into FUSC, remember that? So that's another reason I can't let this car go.

 

[nativewolf]

concur ....as i said above poor supply chain management ...it is not just FABs ... raw materials supply also contributed....what you list are just excuses...... Fords (and other OEM) failure to react quickly .. Tesla changed components and applied FW update to circumvent some of the shortages ...if you dont have an agile design and product change mgmt process you have no chance .... i have similar issues in my business ... we adjusted projects to reflect the chips that were available deferred those were they were in short supply ... could help partially explain Tesla and MS and MX refresh production delays.. which would be a great shifting of priorities due to chip shortage... OEM CEOs and Operations leaders are way out of their expertise

You give a much better holistic view of the problem. Thanks

 

[22522]

Disagree, Tesla teams are extremely driven people who’s working for the cause, they’re already working hard and not wasting any time, no need to rush to meet any self-imposed deadline or anything, quality and safety is the first priority.

Let’s say if they rush to release and missed an edge case, the media smear campaign and following hesitation from public to adopt the new paradigm would create more delays and losses.

Maybe Telsa needs a Public Relations person.

If the public understands the graph, the media is killing one hundred people a day by demanding no missed edge cases.

 

[JRP3]

wow, the content/spam ratio in this thread never gets any better.

Do you really expect people to change?

 

[JRP3]

Real adventures go where a Jeep can't. Remote glaciers, canyon creeks, old-growth forests, wild rivers, alpine meadows. And before you tell me a Jeep can go to all of those places, you might ask how I define "remote". Right,, not accessible by motorized transport.

 

[RobStark]

Weekend Semi O.T.

 

[MABMAB]

wow, the content/spam ratio in this thread never gets any better.

you should have prefaced your comments by apologetically explaining you were about to share something OT.

 

[Jack6591]

For all the talk of what's fair, and how much people are willing to pay for FSD, I would say that there are a tremendous amount of people who would be willing to pay a high premium for FSD.

What does true Full Self Driving offer? It relieves the passenger of any liability, which in the US is very important, and very valuable.

In Southern California, there is an endless parade of expensive vehicles on the freeway, that have drivers who would love to be able to fully focus on their work/business while sitting in traffic on the 405.

Less wealthy families could choose to have FSD on one vehicle, which they can send to pick up grandma, and shuttle people to work and school.

Maybe FSD becomes a commodity that Google or Apple gives away for "free" so they can continue to have eyeballs focused on what they are offering.

But in the meantime I'm pretty sure that there are plenty of people who will be more than happy to pay ~$3600 a year for true FSD.

At 65 years old I am dragging up the rear of the baby-boom generation. My point is that demographically my generation has both means and certainly the need for FSD.

Many of my generation are suffering from poor eyesight, we’re hard of hearing, and our hand-eye coordination has gone to hell. We’re getting old, dammit.

I want FSD; more than this I need FSD.

 

[Prunesquallor]

UAW wants EV tax incentives revised to require U.S. assembly

The United Auto Workers (UAW) union said Friday it wants tax incentives for electric vehicles (EVs) revised to require U.S. assembly for those vehicles to qualify.

www.reuters.com

General Motors Co (GM.N) announced Thursday it would invest $1 billion in its Mexico operations and begin building EVs there in 2023.

Representative Debbie Dingell, a Michigan Democrat, said "electric vehicles must be built here in America by the finest workforce in the world – the American worker. Not one American dollar should support our own jobs being shipped off to Mexico."
…
Last month, the UAW criticized Ford Motor's (F.N) plan to build a new vehicle in Mexico rather than at an Ohio plant. Ford said in November it was planning to build an additional EV at its plant in Cuautitlan, Mexico, where it builds the Mustang Mach-E

Ruh Roh.

 

[WattsHappening]

Why would anyone WANT this? Sigh. I have to keep my 2018 AWD 3 forever because not only did I pay for FSD on it, I also don't have the stupid pedestrian noisemaker nor do I ever want one. I would love for an opportunity to upgrade to a later build down the road for the improvements added since 2018 but I literally can't because FSD doesn't transfer and I hate the stupid noisemakers.

edit: I'm actually also grandfathered into FUSC, remember that? So that's another reason I can't let this car go.

I'm in a similar situation and agree with you completely. My 2018 AWD has EAP, which is perfect. I like driving the car too much to use EAP/FSD for anything other than long road trips. So I can't imagine paying $10K for FSD on a new vehicle. And I LOL'ed when I saw the article on the noisemaker. Can't imagine why someone would pay to have this retro-fitted. I would pay $200 to remove it if I had it! But I suppose there are those who want to add it.

And like you, I have one little extra motivation to keep my 2018. Mine was one of those rare 'stealth' performance builds, which I didn't even realize until I tried to purchase the acceleration boost upgrade (definitely felt foolish when I found out after emailing Tesla to see why I didn't have this option).

I can see myself owning my Model 3 for many more years.

 

[insaneoctane]

For the low end 250 miles subscription, Tesla wants customers to try it, so $20 per month,.,,
My guess would be 500 Miles $40, 1000 Miles $75, 2000 Miles $150

Tiered pricing can be multiplied back to get the purchase price for the lifetime of the car:-
250 Miles = $1,000
500 Miles = $2,400
1000 Miles = $4,500
2000 Miles = $9,000

I can't imagine Tesla offering FSD (even capped at 250 mi/mo) for anything remotely close to $20/mo for many years to come.
It's crazy the wide variation in the estimated value of FSD on this thread/TMC. I guess we'll eventually see who was close and who was far...

 

[MC3OZ]

I can't imagine Tesla offering FSD (even capped at 250 mi/mo) for anything remotely close to $20/mo for many years to come.
It's crazy the wide variation in the estimated value of FSD on this thread/TMC. I guess we'll eventually see who was close and who was far...

I'm just putting an option on the table.... they will phase in the system,,, I agree $20 is a hypothetical extreme. 250 miles per month is not that useful.

My point is they will preserve the value of a purchase of FSD, and increase the price to more accurately reflect the value of a working Robo-taxi...

Any cheaper option will need some limitations, miles, features, etc

 

[dgodfrey]

Why would anyone WANT this? Sigh. I have to keep my 2018 AWD 3 forever because not only did I pay for FSD on it, I also don't have the stupid pedestrian noisemaker nor do I ever want one. I would love for an opportunity to upgrade to a later build down the road for the improvements added since 2018 but I literally can't because FSD doesn't transfer and I hate the stupid noisemakers.

edit: I'm actually also grandfathered into FUSC, remember that? So that's another reason I can't let this car go.

I somewhat feel the same way however I do think that you can recoup some of that FSD on resale so it’s not as big of a deal as I once thought. Another perk for those of us that got in early is premium connectivity for free for life. Certainly not as nice as free supercharging but it’s something.

 

[wipster]

With the amount of money they are raising from pre-orders and the amount they intend to sell these shells for, I have no doubt they can deliver something like the CGI render and maybe even make money doing it. But then people will figure out it's not really a functional camper in the way they imagined, that there is not enough interior space for it to be useful as envisioned. And then there will be no more buyers and the whole thing will fold.

Some people are claiming fraud, I say it looks more like stupidity on a massive scale. I hope no one here put a deposit down!

Frankly, I think it looks like an outhouse anyway...

 

[hacer]

The balance sheet debt from the captive finance arms of the traditional automakers actually is no-recourse debt.

It really is loans offered to the dealers and customers, and if the dealers and customers default on that debt, nothing happens except the cars are repossessed. This isn't debt that Ford or anyone else has to repay to anybody. Volkswagen is technically the world's most indebted company at over $200 billion of this balance sheet debt but no one is concerned about VW's financial stability for the same reasons.

So if I loan someone money and they are supposed to repay me, that means I have a debt? I always thought it was the other way around - the person getting the money/goods/service while promising future payments was the one in debt, not the person giving the money/goods/services in exchange for future payments.

 

[2daMoon]

Weekend Semi O.T.

View attachment 658533

In my best Paul Hogan voice ...

That's not a Semi,




This is a Semi

yes, yes, I know you meant semi-O.T., just couldn't pass up the opportunity to invoke Semi-on-topic foolishness.