Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dgodfrey]

Electrek reporting that Tesla Q2 production is already sold out

Tesla's (TSLA) demand is through the roof, already sold out this quarter

Tesla (TSLA) is currently seeing exceptionally strong demand for its vehicles as it is already sold out for the quarter,...

electrek.co

To add some anecdotal data, a good friend I work with placed an order for a Model X about a month ago. She test drove the Y and my model 3 but currently drives one of the Lexus boats and likes the higher stance of the drivers seat so X it is. Anyway, when she told me her delivery date was late June it seemed plausible at the time until the recent delays and other data points from this thread made me wonder. So last week I asked her if her delivery date was still late June which she hadn't heard anything from Tesla to think otherwise. Yesterday she tells me Tesla just pushed her delivery to September. It appears that Q3 is most likely sold out soon if not already. Hello bots, did you hear that? It appears that Q3 is most likely sold out soon if not already.

OT before market opens:
Her dilemma now is that her lease on the Lexus is up 8/1. She has a few options to play but it's still inconvenient and disheartening for her and not a good introduction to Tesla. She's really green on the whole EV movement and I've tried to alleviate her concerns which are legitimate as she owns a condo with dedicated underground and secure parking in Saratoga Springs with no place to charge other than a 120V within about 15'. Trying to work with the HOA and maintenance to add level 2 at the dedicated handicap spaces which she claims the HOA has the right to do so hopefully that will pan out. It's still going to be a struggle though trying to keep her in the fold now, convincing her it will be worth the wait and trouble.

 

[Drezil]

OT before market opens:
Her dilemma now is that her lease on the Lexus is up 8/1. She has a few options to play but it's still inconvenient and disheartening for her and not a good introduction to Tesla. She's really green on the whole EV movement and I've tried to alleviate her concerns which are legitimate as she owns a condo with dedicated underground and secure parking in Saratoga Springs with no place to charge other than a 120V within about 15'. Trying to work with the HOA and maintenance to add level 2 at the dedicated handicap spaces which she claims the HOA has the right to do so hopefully that will pan out. It's still going to be a struggle though trying to keep her in the fold now, convincing her it will be worth the wait and trouble.

In germany we have a "solution" for that with nextmove .. you can rent EVs there on a monthly basis (including insurance, tax, some mileage, etc.).
As Model-3 deliveries got pushed back before the first deliveries they made special-offers like "drive one of our EVs on a monthly plan until your Model 3 arrives". Maybe there is a similar thing going on in your area to bridge that gap?

 

[MABMAB]

Ordering issues for tesla are not unique, same is true of gm and f, salespeople have no idea when new orders will arrive

 

[jbcarioca]

So, if they are getting most of the money by selling credits, they would have a great deal of control over when to sell. This has been hunch - that I was suggesting in the finance thread - that Tesla can decide how much of the revenue to bring in each quarter.

Don't forget VAG in China. We may not yet have an idea how large that might be or how long it might last.

 

[RobStark]

Model 3 is 6-8weeks in USA(still Q2), May in Europe. Not sure where Fred is getting his info.

Estimated 6-8 weeks. Not a money back guarantee you will get it in 8 weeks.

In the past, Tesla has not made it a priority to update those estimates on the order page.

 

[RobStark]

SAE refines levels of automation in push for system clarity - News Chant USA

The levels of driving automation, the trade’s go-to framework, have been up to date this week to make clear variations between Level 3 and Level 4, half of an effort to higher outline and group the capabilities of autonomous applied sciences which are on the highway and underneath growth. The...

us.newschant.com

 

[jbcarioca]

Estimated 6-8 weeks. Not a money back guarantee you will get it in 8 weeks.

In the past, Tesla has not made it a priority to update those estimates on the order page.

Since I have apparently made it a career of ordering 'not yet available' products I have a perspective. The only manufacturer who has made forecasts and usually met them for me has been Apple. From others including Japanese, German, Italian and US ones there has never been any reliable prediction. It seems that this subject keeps arising, probably because many auto buyers seems to expect immediate delivery from dealer stock.

I strongly suspect it will be at least a couple years before Tesla will be able to consistently have short delivery times for established products. As for new models, that will probably never happen. It never has for anyone else, why would Tesla be different. As for asking Tesla sales representatives, has anyone ever had a car salesperson actually know anything much?

 

[redan]

I know we're sick of GJ, but I found this interesting (and apparently GJ deleted this tweet after realizing he gave some background rationale to his bias):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1390284873181515781

 

[ZachF]

wow over $30 Billion in 3 years spent just on advertising just at a glance
if they had only spent that buying TSLA they could have had, what? ~$300 Billion ((or split it 50/50) a mere $150Billion)

well, strike me with lightning and spin me like a catherine wheel, sparks a flying every which way.

$30 billion would buy a lot of gigafactories...

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Can be argued that’s actually the strategy to buy them more time. Why spend for a charging network that they won’t be the beneficiaries off? They know they have no chance to become major players in the future of transportation. They are running on fumes, and they know it.

I don't think traditional auto have either the money or the culture/tradition of solving problems holistically and/or the will to change: They are stuck in the past.
In the ICE-age, the drillers, the oil companies, refineries and gas stations took care of the fuel part of the ICE-equation.

Traditional auto are still basically thinking that it is a two-part equation: Cars and fuel. Fuel is just not their backyard, it is somebody else's problem, business and responsibility.
Whether that someone is a power company, local, state or federal government or startups or even more generic, 'the market', they don't care, but it is just up to somebody else to to fix this part of the EV-equation. Traditional auto are not used to first principles thinking and so they don't really in a cultural sense even consider this lack of charging to be their problem.
In a way, to their traditional thinking, the lack of EV charging infrastructure is precisely a big part of the reason why EVs on a system-level is inferior to ICE.

So, how can we expect them to solve a problem that goes against both their way of thinking and their core beliefs?

 

[Knightshade]

squawksquare on Twitter has a theory on this

https://twitter.com/x/status/1390053843573092353

That's the same dude who keeps saying things like how MMs pushed the stock down to X on a Tuesday to "get their premiums" for puts and how they're then gonna push it to Y a few hours later to "get their premiums" on calls. He seems to think hitting a strike at any time/date is how options pay premiums or something.

He allegedly does well day trading shares looking at minute-by-minute ticket data, but appears to have no understanding of how markets actually work otherwise, and especially not options.

TL;DR. Electrek says that Tesla is revamping the referral program, to avoid influencer link spamming / as it cost $23m in the past quarter.

This initially seemed a little weird only in that Teslas real costs end up LOWER if referrals are being concentrated among a smaller group of influencers- in that it increases the # of free SC miles that won't ever end up redeemed.... as Fred noted he's got over a million SC miles he's never gonna use more than the tiniest fraction of.

Though I suppose the fact the expiration extends as more referrals come in means the potential liability sits on Teslas books long term even it's never going to actually be realized, so that might be part of the thing they're trying to fix here.

 

[ZsoZso]

Yes, it's possible to short ARKK. For example Stanphyl Capital claims to be short ARKK .

In theory a big short position on ARKK could affect TSLA. Here's how:

• ARKK holds assets, including TSLA.
• Shorting ARKK can lower the price of ARKK.
• Lower prices for ARKK can prompt customers to withdraw funds.
• Fund withdrawals mean the fund has to hand over cash.
• Handing over cash can force asset sales.
• ARKK sells TSLA, lowering its price.

I'm not saying that's happening BTW — but yes, shorting the ARKK tail could conceivably wag TSLA.

You forgot about the Creation / Redemption process that restores the stock price of an ETF to the aggregate value of the held shares, thus negating the shorting effect:

https://www.etf.com/etf-education-center/etf-basics/what-is-the-creationredemption-mechanism?nopaging=1

Because of this mechanism, you can't force the ETF price to deviate significantly from the underlying share price moves.

This process makes the "tail wagging the body" very difficult to achieve.

 

[Krugerrand]

Electrek reporting that Tesla Q2 production is already sold out

Tesla's (TSLA) demand is through the roof, already sold out this quarter

Tesla (TSLA) is currently seeing exceptionally strong demand for its vehicles as it is already sold out for the quarter,...

electrek.co

It was sold out long before today. Seriously.

 

[thx1139]

To be charitable, maybe they're on ships, same as all the Teslas...

But my response was to the comment that 2 weeks ago we were told 100s were off ships and waiting for deliveries in Norway. I understand that it takes weeks for the ships to get to destination, but the cars were unloaded a good while ago.

 

[FireMedic]

She's really green on the whole EV movement and I've tried to alleviate her concerns which are legitimate as she owns a condo with dedicated underground and secure parking in Saratoga Springs with no place to charge other than a 120V within about 15'. Trying to work with the HOA and maintenance to add level 2 at the dedicated handicap spaces which she claims the HOA has the right to do so hopefully that will pan out. It's still going to be a struggle though trying to keep her in the fold now, convincing her it will be worth the wait and trouble.

Here is a form letter for her HOA. It’s on the Tesla website. I struggled to link it so here it is in its original form.


Dear [HOA Board or Management Name],
Over the last few years, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of fully electric and plug-in electric hybrid vehicles sold in the United States. Nearly every major automotive company in the world is selling a plug-in vehicle. I am in the process of purchasing an electric vehicle, and would like to request permission to install charging equipment.
With approval from [HOA Board or Management Name],I would like to have a licensed and bonded electrical contractor draft an installation plan and determine the cost of charging at my parking location, at my own expense. Given an estimated delivery date of [number to number]weeks from now for my new electric vehicle, I am asking that the board prioritize this request.
The market for electric vehicles is rapidly expanding and now is the best time to begin planning for the increasingdemand for access to charging equipment. The ability to provide charging as an amenity will also attract and retainhighly valued, eco-conscious residents. Additionally, more electric vehicles in our parking structure will reduce emissions and improve overall air quality.
To assist in the planning of this installation, I am willing to help in any way possible. I will coordinate all appointments with the electrician and building maintenance as needed.
Please let me know if you or I need any more information before we proceed.
Thank you for your time in considering this request. I look forward to hearing back from you on this matter in the coming weeks.
Sincerely,

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

With trepidation, I'll take a shot at the EU emission credit situation. This makes my head hurt.

The following analysis attempts to assess the implications of Stellantis dissolving the EU emissions pool with Tesla. This mainly looks at what Stellantis must do to avoid EU emissions penalties without Tesla.

We begin with the 2020 ICCT Market Monitor
https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/MarketMonitor-EU-jan2021.pdf

View attachment 659853

Note that PSA-Opel and FCA, the components of Stellantis, are still bookkept separately. Also note that it looks like PSA-Opel was in pretty good shape last year. It actually came in under its emissions target.

However, it is important to understand the “Compliance Credits”. PI – or “Phase-In”, was a one-time-only 2020 gift that allowed manufacturers to write off their worst polluters, up to a credit of 3.0 g CO2/km. Everyone took full advantage, and that is now gone. Also SC – or “Super-credits” allowed manufacturers to double-count ZEVs in their emissions calculations up to 7.5 g CO2/km total for 2020-2022. PSA-Opel used 5.3 out of the 7.5 in 2020, they only have 2.2 left through 2022. (EC – “Eco-Innovations” is a negligible component)

Looking at the FCA-Tesla-Honda pool, it used all Phase-In and Super-credits compliance credits in 2020 and was still showing a 3 g/km gap.

To estimate the situation in 2021, I assumed that vehicle sales of PSA-Opel and the FCA-Tesla-Honda pool remained at 2020 totals along with the emission levels. Those are (also from the ICCT Market Monitor):

PSA-Opel: 1,723,970
FCA-Tesla-Honda: 859,451
(Honda sold less than 4000 cars in the EU in 2020, so its contribution can be ignored: Register to read | Financial Times)

Given those assumptions, and the EU CO2 emissions penalty rate of 95€/vehicle/(g/km), the penalty situation in 2021 looks like this:

View attachment 659854

If PSA-Opel and FCA-Tesla are considered separately, they could be predicted to incur €606 million and €1135 million penalties, respectively. If combined into one pool, the penalty could be somewhat less than the sum due to the way compliance credits are deducted. Still, €1455 million.

So, if Stellantis wanted to “go it alone”, what would it have to do to ditch Tesla and meet its emissions target? One option would be to replace the sales of the pool’s Teslas with Stellantis ZEVs, PLUS replace some Stellantis ICE cars with ZEVs. According to the Financial Times link, Tesla sold 97,957 vehicles in the EU in 2020. Given that (and ignoring Honda) the numbers work out like this for that scenario:

View attachment 659855

Stellantis would have to sell 254,000 more ZEVs in 2021 than in 2020. 98,000 would replace the lost Teslas and 156,000 would need to replace Stellantis ICE vehicles.

Many assumptions would probably change (number of 2021 vehicle sales and ICE/ZEV mix) and other scenarios could be made to work (additional vs. replacement ZEVs, etc.). As usual, this doesn't shed much light on what Stellantis was paying Tesla other than establishing an upper bound.

Thanks.
Re: "Stellantis would have to sell 254,000 more ZEVs in 2021 than in 2020."
How big a percentage increase in ZEVs sales would that be? Any prognosis/speculation on how likely that is?
If not, do we expect a walk-back of the "We don't need Tesla anymore"-line? (Or will they simple weasel their way out, saying later that 2021 was a hard year, due to covid, chip-shortage, yada yada...)

 

[thx1139]

FYI this thread is on page 64...
2 die in Tesla crash - Report says "nobody was in driver seat"
And this is before we get the facts...

Why was this brought up out of the blue? I dont see new information.

 

[Nocturnal]

Did you guys know that Gordon Johnson's Dad is an exec at GM? It's hilarious that nobody knew this but I guess we just don't care.

 

[Phobi]

I know we're sick of GJ, but I found this interesting (and apparently GJ deleted this tweet after realizing he gave some background rationale to his bias):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1390284873181515781

SMR is gonna have a field day...he might be kinda sad though...I think he had hope that he was just joking all this time

 

[thx1139]

Estimated 6-8 weeks. Not a money back guarantee you will get it in 8 weeks.

In the past, Tesla has not made it a priority to update those estimates on the order page.

8 weeks is now July.