Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

So what's today's excuse for a sell-off? 10Y is dropping, economy strengthening, Yellen hasn't mentioned interest rates, Tesla selling out of production

Markets are totally illogical right now

Must be a hell of a lot of short positions need unwinding soon

Until we see a peak on commodity prices, tech will continue to be under pressure. So keep an eye on metal and wood prices.

Also some of this is just a natural transition. Tech that benefit the most from covid is getting crushed due to softer guidance post pandemic....naturally.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Until we see a peak on commodity prices, tech will continue to be under pressure. So keep an eye on metal and wood prices.

Also some of this is just a natural transition. Tech that benefit the most from covid is getting crushed due to softer guidance post pandemic....naturally.

What tech company posted soft guidance? All I saw from tech was amazing earnings and great Q2 guidance, especially from the big boys

 

[Knightshade]

So what's today's excuse for a sell-off? 10Y is dropping, economy strengthening, Yellen hasn't mentioned interest rates, Tesla selling out of production

FWIW all "top news" results I saw in google for Q2 sellout have since been replaced with "Tesla losing credits that make them profitable" stories instead.

Man just unreal at this point. News of Q2 being sold out when any halfway intelligent person knows that means P/D of 200k at the minimum.......and yet zero buying volume. Just nonstop selling volume and in general, hardly any volume at all.

See above.

If the FUDsters keep pushing that they lose money on the cars and only make it on the credits then news they're "losing" some credit revenue means selling out production is bad.

 

[Mengy]

Man just unreal at this point. News of Q2 being sold out when any halfway intelligent person knows that means P/D of 200k at the minimum.......and yet zero buying volume. Just nonstop selling volume and in general, hardly any volume at all.

They were able to drop it on what should have been a breakout piece of news. Sorry but no one can convince me otherwise at this point that both the buy side and the sell side work together for their own goals. We've had good news after good new after good news and no buying volume comes in. I expect shorts, bears, and MM's to do their thing but I at this point it sure seems like what should be the buy side institutions and funds are willing to go along with this

It seems clear to me that there's clear intent to break TSLA to the downside when the wedge between the upward channel and the lower channel meet. If the stock stays below 700 for another week, pretty sure they will have accomplished this goal

Maybe everyone who wants to own TSLA already does? So many diamond handers with Tesla, maybe this is allowing the MM's to play God with the share price more than would be possible with other stocks?

 

[Singuy]

What tech company posted soft guidance? All I saw from tech was amazing earnings and great Q2 guidance, especially from the big boys

Etsy posted good q2 guide but is hinting at peak growth reached. Growth forward is not going to look as good compared to yoy. Netflix past peak growth.

So it's the yoy growth compared to pandemic that is causing the sell off. I didn't think people expected everyone to keep buying masks at etsy post pandemic so it's kind a no brainer their growth will slow coming out of covid.

 

[stealthyc]

Weird, bad jobs report usually leads to prices falling

So the new reality is anything causes stocks to drop

Throughout the pandemic, usually bad jobs reports lead to a rise in the market

 

[ChefBoyardee]

If you believe the technicals it can only drop another 4% to 650 ish, and I expect it'll be in the 750-800 range by June
View attachment 658014

I'm calling the bottom here. We hit 657, within 1% of long-term resistance. Nasdaq is near resistance as well. So, putting my money where my mouth is, I sold 645 put spreads for tomorrow - Cheers!

 

[Singuy]

Good job report = inflation =getting closer to raising rates even after fed repeat over and over their stance.

So bad job reports = no rates rise.

We just need commodities to flood the market by summer. That will put this nonsense to rest.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Maybe everyone who wants to own TSLA already does? So many diamond handers with Tesla, maybe this is allowing the MM's to play God with the share price more than would be possible with other stocks?

It doesn't work like that....in terms of "Everyone who wants to own TSLA already does". The stock market fundamentally doesn't work like that. It's always based on how well a company is executing, future expectations, and so on and that's always dynamic and always changing. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying a stock shouldn't have a sell off or a consolidation. And the fears in Q1 were at least somewhat warranted to have no buying volume come in and a sell off because Wall St didn't know what Tesla was going to post for Q1

But starting with Q1 P/D's we've had nothing but good news after good news. Projections for the full year have kept increasing. We've had price targets increasing. The 10 yr yield which was supposed to have exploded by now up to 2% hasn't. And yet no buying volume and plenty of selling volume. This isn't natural trading. The only way you're getting this kind of trading - sell volume on no news or fake articles and no buying volume on actual positive news/data is that both sides are working together.

Keep in mind this is with the Nasdaq with within a few percentage points of it's all time high. It's not like the macro's took a dump over Q1. Even most of tech is still within 5-10% of their all time highs. Tesla's still down 30%

 

[Sudre]

I am wondering how many retail investors are selling to pay taxes. Betwern that and a lower interest in buyi g it probably gives the MMs an advantage at putting the price where they want it.

 

[elasalle]

got me - 3 more March 23 800 Calls (with rolling of CC's .. same strategy )

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm calling the bottom here. We hit 657, within 1% of long-term resistance. Nasdaq is near resistance as well. So, putting my money where my mouth is, I sold 645 put spreads for tomorrow - Cheers!

TSLA has been progressively underperforming the Nasdaq/QQQ as the morning has gone on so you're way too early on calling the bottom here. If the Nasdaq goes back down to it's low, the stock is going sub 650 easily

Edit: Progressively underperforming the Nasdaq/QQQ more and more as the morning has gone on. Went from outperforming it to this being down 2X the QQQ, then 3X, now working on 4X

 

[DarkandStormy]

Stock price may have pierced through the lower Bollinger Band here.
EDIT - definitely through the lower BB.

 

[ChefBoyardee]

TSLA has been progressively underperforming the Nasdaq/QQQ as the morning has gone on so you're way too early on calling the bottom here. If the Nasdaq goes back down to it's low, the stock is going sub 650 easily

I could be, definitely no expert, but we're going to find out soon - 651 right now so we're going to see if the channel holds

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

News of Q2 being sold out when any halfway intelligent person knows that means P/D of 200k at the minimum.......and yet zero buying volume.

95% of TSLA investors are not on this forum. They are people investing their pension funds in whatever their broker or yahoo finance or bloomberg recommends. They are looking at a high P/E ratio and lots of news stories about 'competition'. They have no idea about the sellout news, because its not mainstream. They will not be affected in any way until the next quarter smashes that 200k mark. They will not even notice when new S/X hits the street. They are looking at the simple 'fudmanetals' reported on CNBC et al.

Have patience

 

[EVNow]

The only manufacturer who has made forecasts and usually met them for me has been Apple.

Tell me more about Apple car program.

ps : Apple phone/ipad essentially follows the Sony PS/ MS XBOX model of announcing the date when products are ready to be sent to wholesalers/retailers.

 

[kanweg]

I’d guess the MMs want to be below 650 to trigger some stop losses. Almost there, then.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I am however enjoying watching Gary flip his lid since Q1 earnings. It's been quite amusing watching him come up with excuses for this or that about why Tesla continually gets hit with sell volume. He's had to abandon the whole 10 yr yield explanation since the 10 yr continually keeps dropping. Now he's in fact blaming Elon/Tesla for FUD creating fake news haha.

Come on Gary, just admit that you know what's going but you don't want to out your Wall St buddys

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I know we're sick of GJ, but I found this interesting (and apparently GJ deleted this tweet after realizing he gave some background rationale to his bias):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1390284873181515781

How dumb is GJ to out himself out on Twitter???? Oh wait....makes complete sense now!

 

[Marc_K_inNJ]

Her dilemma now is that her lease on the Lexus is up 8/1. She has a few options to play but it's still inconvenient and disheartening for her and not a good introduction to Tesla. She's really green on the whole EV movement and I've tried to alleviate her concerns which are legitimate as she owns a condo with dedicated underground and secure parking in Saratoga Springs with no place to charge other than a 120V within about 15'. Trying to work with the HOA and maintenance to add level 2 at the dedicated handicap spaces which she claims the HOA has the right to do so hopefully that will pan out. It's still going to be a struggle though trying to keep her in the fold now, convincing her it will be worth the wait and trouble.

I was going to DM you, but figured to post it publicly since many people are in this delay boat right now. It is very easy to extend her lease to a month by month. all she needs to do is call her leasing bank (NOT the dealer) before her lease end date and ask them to continue the lease on month by month. It is a standard option to do it. The payment amount might change slightly.