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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I think there is opportunity for Tesla to create 10 yr auto loans. Tesla vehicle time value is going to be better than most boats on 10 yr loans. Especially CyberTruck where the SS body doesn't rust out. Existing Demand doesn't warrant this, but it's an ace still.
Speaking of CyberTruck, could you imagine $10,000 off of a Dual Motor? This is not a % discount, it's off the top. Meaning, a $25K car could go as low as $15K. Or make one for $10K and it's FREE! (I'm sure there's a minimum somewhere in there.)
Ford's discount... still crazy expensive for 300 mi range. Not on the same planet even.
The bear thesis of "more competition" is stupid because it assumes a fixed size market rather than a growing one. Competition didn't seem to kill Apple and the iPhone. If anything, competition has made Tesla look even better in comparison.
Baby steps, Tesla tends to partner with someone who is experienced first, and learn from them.
If they can keep up with Tesla’s pace of innovation, then fine, they don’t kick out vendors just to squeeze profits.
But if they can not, Tesla will do it themselves, in a completely different and better way.
This happened many times in key areas and will happen more as they identify new key areas.
DUR DUR DUR.. DING DING DING
If all 70 million of annual global car sales could only be EV's - Tesla would sell 50 million or more.
Whom controls the batteries (and battery prices), controls the one ring.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I personally believe some automakers have been hiding behind the chip shortages to cover poor sales. So, while other manufacturers could pay up front, if they’re using it as cover, they likely would not choose this route...
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Around here Gordo is “legendary“....I tried looking up the 74 year old "legendary" investor's net worth and found two answers:
$2-$6 million
and, drumroll...
$200,000
Hmmm...he must be one of those "legendary investors" with a lot of expensive divorces!
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Tesla's BEV market share, globally, in 2021 so far is right on 20%.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
This is another example of people tolerating things that are wrong. There should be ZERO appetite for the extra $2,500 tied to ”union production“. How does this benefit the taxpayers, EV adopters, workers,or anyone? Tesla workers are able to unionize any time they want. In doing so, the union will control labor negotiations and Tesla will remove stock options from the compensation package. Since the production workers feel compensated very well, they have not chosen to unionize and, likely, reduce their overall compensation. Good job, Tesla. Is there another non-Tesla non-union EV manufacturer that won’t have access to the extra $2,500? I think this aims SQUARELY at Tesla. How does invalidating $2,500 of EV rebate help taxpayers, buyers, or workers here? The only beneficiary appears to be the UAW at the expense of everyone else, including the production workers that have chosen not to unionize. This is unacceptable and should not be ignored just because Tesla gets “something“.
Neither Tesla nor Elon has said this was the case. In fact Elon refuted this specific accusation.
Whether that happens because the union, such as the UAW opts for fighting for wages instead of stock compensation is another matter. But Tesla has not threatened to do this.
From the union point of view, there are shareholders, management, and workers. If the workers become shareholders the power of the union is reduced. No doubt the union does not want stock options for this reason.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
As of a year ago Nissan still had just over 55,000 sales to go to hit 200k and start the phaseout.
Annual US Leaf sales have been around 10,000 cars give or take....meaning they wouldn't hit phaseout till after 2025 with just the leaf... though they're finally bringing another EV to market in the US next year (the Ariya).
Nonunion workers had weekly earnings 81 percent of union members in 2019 : The Economics Daily: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Among full-time wage and salary workers, union members had median usual weekly earnings of $1,095 in 2019, while those who were not union members had median weekly earnings of $892.
www.bls.gov
Those numbers paint with a broad brush of course.
But the idea unions never benefit workers is... a difficult one to square with history.
That doesn't mean every worker everywhere needs one either of course.
For clarity/context on this topic-
The NLRB said it was the case, and ordered Elon to delete the tweet in question
Feds order Elon Musk to remove anti-union tweet | WRAL TechWire
The National Labor Relations Board says that Tesla and its CEO engaged in illegal actions against US employees trying to organize a union. One of those actions was a tweet, now three years old, in which Musk appeared to threaten to revoke employees' valuable stock options if they voted for a union.
www.wraltechwire.com
Elon has thusfar ignored said order and tweet is still there. Back when it was originally made they denied it was any sort of threat as the NLRB reads it.
I believe there's quite a few foreign car makers with US factories that are NOT union shops (especially in the south) so this exclusion would hit them as well.
Didn't Rob commented that there were drone shots confirming the 2 week shut down? And who to say the entire 2 weeks were all in April?Lol, ramping at +100% month-over-month? They're fast, but not THAT fast!
The limiting factor on production is ALWAYS logistics, specifically meaning the supply of pre-ordered parts from literally 100's of external suppliers. Tesla can not increase this supply on a whim, or in big, unplanned jumps (because PHYSICS).
Giga Shanghai produced almost exactly the same number of Models Y per day in April as they did in March. This is the sensible result given a pre-ordered supply of external parts.
The only reasonable way Tesla had a 2weak shdn AND still produced the same number of Models Y is if they went to double shifts for the other 2wks of Apr. Possible, but we have no evidence of that either.
Its the same way we have no evidence of a 2weak shtdn. What's more reasonable? Information leaks after the fact about a supposed shdn, but DOES NOT about double shifts? Or that it was production as planned the whole time?
The only unreasonable position is that April had lower prod. (as the April Fool's FUD campaign wanted investors to believe). Shipments to S. Korea explains the discrepency completely. In fact, we learned today that April 2021 MiC Model Y production was normal.
We rightfully should discount post-hoc justifcations of media FUD via unsubstantiated, single-sourced, and RETROACTIVE stories (which were clearly aimed at shoring up a disintegrating FUD narrative). It's what long-term investors do.
Cheers!
Do you understand how regulated the insurance industry is? Do you know that for every $3 in auto premium an auto insurer needs ~$1 in statutory capital? Do you know that more auto insurance profitability is derived from investment income than underwriting policy?
I'm all ears - how will Tesla underwrite auto insurance in a completely different and better way and, I'm assuming, do it more profitably than the legacy insurers?
Agree 100%.
I'd prefer NO ONE gets anything than handing a victory to union scumming.
Fortunately, I think the odds are that something like this would get scrapped to pass - if it passes at all.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
It is not Tesla that would deny stock options to a UAW union employee: none of their workers are permitted to receive stock options by Union policy (lame, yet true).
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Context of a follow-up tweet the next day helps too. Elon was asked point-blank if it was a threat, and he said no:
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I don't think that IS true.
In fact, UAW specifically denied that claim back when the whole thing came up and someone claimed such a rule existed without evidence.
UAW Spokesperson said:
FWIW there's much to dislike about the UAW. But this isn't one of those things.
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