Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

This is a good video:-

Bottom line, any innovation can eventually be copied if there is the will, the talent, and the money to do that.

But culturally many existing carmakers are not well set up for rapid innovation, financially, and in terms of engineering talent, they are not well set up. But senior management having the vision and the courage to take risks, is even more challenging..

The additional factor I would add, is not knowing the starters gun has been fired. To rapidly scale EV production over the next 5 years they would need all key building blocks in place now,... casting, batteries, engineering, finance, factories... The problem with copying is, you are always several years behind...

It always goes back to "The Innovator's Dilemma"

 

[ZachF]

I think people don't realize the size of the Cybertruck... until they will try using a Supercharger !!!

My neighbor was moving last weekend and used a F-150, he had to maneuver very hard to park, and was not really legally parked, blocking partially the access.

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A baby Cybertruck, the size of a Jeep Rubicon would be more practical for many people, unless you are a carpenter and need to carry a lot of plywood or drywalls.

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A Cyberwrangler (would obviously need a different name) made for off-road dominance would be a great product, and a Cybervan (not minivan)

I think Tesla should eventually spin off Cyber into it's own brand

 

[BornToFly]

The Vegas Loop opening has me really excited. People come from all over the world to go to Vegas for conventions, shows, gambling, etc. The loop will be really smooth and quiet, making Tesla vehicles appear amazing to the passengers. When you consider the number of people that still think you need to charge at a station, the opportunity for the driver to educate the public that you charge at home every night because (surprise) there is electricity in your house, and the loop is going to really increase demand. It is pure genius. The spring is getting wound very tight. I'm not selling any covered calls right now, only Puts. I just hope the spring pops in the next month, and not in the next year....

 

[thx1139]

Texas is building all east coast cars and Freemont all West coast cars to reduce shipping cost. I think all Y's will move to 4680's. SR will just have fewer cells.

I believe that is long term, in the short term as 4680 ramps up and Austin ramps up they only produce 4680 versions of Y in Austin. Likely to be different specs so a new LR+ in Austin makes sense and others in Fremont. Then over time adjust as the 4680s reach volume production (Enough to handle CT and Roadster as well) they move them into new Model Y's in Fremont.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Seems about right...

 

[jerry33]

Small, interesting residential solar development. New panel installations now come with a metal yard sign. Relatively small marketing expense, but could get neighbors interested.

SpaceX stainless steel for the sign?

 

[viridi]

Tomorrow, Tesla is going to reveal one of the greatest technological marvels the car industry has ever seen, and one can easily argue the best dollar-for-dollar production car ever created. Yet, the media is focused on click-bait FUD that is mostly, if not completely irrelevant to the long-term success of Tesla. For long-term investors, all that matters is this long-term success, not the daily manipulations of the MMs and the shorts (as much as I might focus on this). This has to be the focus of "investors."

 

[gabeincal]

 

[Pezpunk]

Hmmm. Yesterday, on my Plaid+ order page (which is still depressingly encouraging me to "Prepare for Delivery!"), the car image on that page turned into a broken image icon. I assumed this was a symptom of it being removed / cancelled. But today, the image of the Plaid+ car is back. Dare I dream...?

Nah, almost certainly it's just that some component of the Plaid+ image API was removed when they took it out of the configurator, and then some web monkey restored it when they noticed it was used for the existing orders too. Oh well.

 

[elasalle]

max pain still at 600
no jostling and big changes in option positions.

volume is anemic

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Notice the article with no FUD cause its a Ford:

"They are taking a day to catch their breath"

 

[gabeincal]

Notice the article with no FUD cause its a Ford:

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"They are taking a day to catch their breath"

Electrified.... Pfffff

 

[lafrisbee]

FSD along the race track

that is what I said yesterday... and the reason to paint the track.
Two rides tomorrow:
Driverless
"Go fast."

 

[Nocturnal]

Is this what people had in mind when we were told that inclusion into the spoon would cause volatility to decrease? It sure is pegged.

 

[winfield100]

Yes, exactly but Munro will take awhile. So in the interim, for anyone still wondering, watch Jordan Giesige's excellent hour long wrap up video at the Limiting Factor that he posted yesterday. It summarizes the 18 months of in-depth research he's done pre-/post battery day. It will a) pump you up because it's mind blowing what Tesla's doing once you're down in the weeds as far as he goes and b) gives a dose of reality for just how hard and time consuming each step in the process is. The last 30 minutes of the video are especially useful as he works through a very detailed timeline analysis for when 4680s could come online, which factories will get them, and which vehicles they'll go into. Granted, it get's to be speculative at that point but his speculations are well informed and logical and would put to rest much of the incessant & poorly informed speculations here.

i am a bit surprised that no one else commented at the graphics around minute 53

first, what is present battery capacity ~30 gigawatt hours or so roughly.

second, triple that by end of 2022 to roughly 100 gigawatt hours

third, multiply the 2022 capacity by a factor of 100 to 3 terawatt hours by 2030
(a casual insert of ?exponential? ?rapid? growth)

and the other graphic, a side by side of ?capacity? and vehicles/other uses
Tesla energy/stationary storage

As an extremely speculative idea that others may be entertaining, Texas ERCOT is ripe for the plucking by an entity that can stabilize prices and power, heat wave power outages and cold snap power outages

(i tell you 3x this is true, an in-law in Austin posted pictures of heating, by placing lit candles under an upside down clay pot to have a tiny heat radiator inside a below freezing temp house)

Tesla Energy has the opportunity to overwhelm

 

[15Peter20]

Is this what people had in mind when we were told that inclusion into the spoon would cause volatility to decrease? It sure is pegged.

It's like war. Weeks of boredom followed by extreme violence for a few hours.

 

[lafrisbee]

Poor analogy. While holding pocket 2’s the board can flop you another pair of 2’s.

Count on weird governmental machinations that excludes Tesla from benefits and reward unions and Detroit.

Plus it depends on what everyone else is showing, the size of the stacks, position, blah blah blah

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

This is assuming the megacasting idea is 100% fine & dandy.
And that is going spotless because Musk is a genius. When in actual fact is known to fall in love with ideas & pretend people to deliver.

Being a substantial technical task, it cannot be assumed is a total good choice.
And there's extra possible problems for the final users.
I would not hurry to claim is an historical turning point in manufacturing with no drawbacks of sort, & others are old farts lagging behind, let's see how develops.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealTesla/comments/maqqfc

That 10% success rate is bogus just going off of the reject bins as pictured. Going by the first picture, it looks like you can't fit more than 30 castings per bin, times 6 bins (pre-shredded), that's 180 castings max rejected per week or less than 30 daily. One giga-casting is currently producing 500 per day or 3500 per week, which would translate to a 5% reject rate.

I'm not saying Tesla's reject rate isn't high (aka above industry norms), but 10% is ludicrous, and for that casting "expert" to believe such rumors, leaves doubting his intentions.

Edit: This reminds of the Martin Tripp situation, where he saw truckloads of scrap and claimed that millions of dollars worth of Tesla materials were being wasted, when he had no idea how tiny the amount was in comparison to the actual raw material needs of the gigafactory actually were.

 

[dl003]

Is this what people had in mind when we were told that inclusion into the spoon would cause volatility to decrease? It sure is pegged.

The entire market is bracing for impact. Expect violence tomorrow, either up or down. US10Y is dipping below 1.5% for the first time since March but QQQ is anemic. Even the bond market is bracing for CPI.

 

[SunCatcher]

Have you even seen a Japanese Fire Truck !!!

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