Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mokuzai]

Fascinating! I'm in the same boat as you (declined Plaid+ to Plaid conversion) and fairly local to Fremont. Thoughts on why else you may have been invited?

Not sure, have you been to other events? I've been to the Semi and Model Y unveils and battery day...maybe I'm on a list?

 

[hobbes]

Fremont right now

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Already made it to Teslarati! (with mention)

Tesla starts making preparations for an exciting Model S Plaid delivery event

The Tesla Model S Plaid’s delivery event is almost here, and the EV maker is already fully committed to its preparations for the occasion. From a freshly-redone test track to a massive stage that’s being set up, Tesla seems to be sparing little expense in ensuring that attendees of the Model S...

www.teslarati.com

 

[CHGolferJim]

Haha, less than 13 million shares traded today as of 2pm ET. #coiledspring

 

[traxila]

uhh...is there a way to know if we ourselves have been researched based on being on this forum?!

Some PIs did a lot of deep digging into me, even trying to friend me on FaceBook.

I caught a tracker tailing me and took him for a few joy rides. Lucky for me he was driving an ICE and I routinely lost him.

Saw his car parked near my place of work once. Got a coworker to distract him while I took a bunch of pictures of the car close up. He had a copy of my High School Yearbook open to my photo with a big question mark scrawled on my face.

When the PIs revealed what they had discovered about me back to the head honchos it was so boring that the checker that had included my handle in the lookup list was fired for stupidity and incompetence.

Then they tried to make me believe that Tesla was interested in me so that I would apply for a position. They figured that if by some miracle I was hired for a position I would sabotage the company from within due to my uselessness.

Of course the above is a pack of lies for entertainment purposes. Especially the part about FaceBook. Hell, no I am not on FaceBook.

 

[ZachF]

I've been advocating for this since the start. Makes so much sense from a solar canopy charging and torque perspective. Started a thread on it a while back.

Tesla Replacement For The Wrangler​

Also at the beginning stages of a Wrangel TJ EV conversion build. Just need someone to really wreck a Model S, but only the front-end, windshield and roof. Tough combo for such a stable vehicle!

Ground Up Wrangler TJ EV​

Indeed. This is why I think Tesla should spin off Cyber into Tesla's second brand.

They could have the Cybertruck, a van/SUV version of it, a smaller cybertruck and cyberSUV, and the "Cyberwrangler" (Cyberbuggy?)ultimate off-road vehicle.

I think they could easily support ~2m in sales globally just off that lineup

 

[Discoducky]

In an interesting twist, the article from Fredtrek was removed. I'm not finding any primary sources about Nanograf's announcement.

EDIT to say I'm not suggesting any sort of link between Tesla and this company, but rather that the announcement seemed like it was meant to pre-empt a possible 18650 advance to be revealed by Tesla tomorrow. It may have been pulled because the company realized their "most advanced 18650" claim was going to be squashed tomorrow and that's a bigger risk than the win of front-running. Just a theory.

It's still on the intertubes here: NanoGraf delivers 28% longer run times on 18650 lithium-ion cells - Autobala

From the article and makes me go "Hmmmm..."

"18650 is Most common format Battery cell for electric bicycles. Tesla currently uses 18650 cells on the Model S and Model X, but the company has no plans to use them on the new Model S and Model X."

 

[Curt Renz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1402682323141763073

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Drew some trendlines which conveniently seem to cross in the july/Aug range to coincide with Q2 earnings and the annual shareholder meeting.

Based on trendlines, napkins, and a Fibonacci ratio of my hopes and dreams I suspect a strong push away from 600 will occur around July/Aug.

On a more serious note I have noticed the put/call ratio this week has stayed call heavy with the p/c ratio under 1.0. This is a change from the last several months when it seems more puts are bought than calls when we see large downswings. Especially in the morning when the share price plunges we usually see a lot of put buying skewing the put/call ratio above 1.0, however this has changed this week. Could be a bullish sign. We will see.

 

[AZRI11]

Wow the alcohol involved with this thinking.

He's Canadian and almost as bad, he fell and hit his head last summer (underwent brain surgery) Canadian part I blame his parents.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

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Drew some trendlines which conveniently seem to cross in the july/Aug range to coincide with Q2 earnings and the annual shareholder meeting.

Based on trendlines, napkins, and a Fibonacci ratio of my hopes and dreams I suspect a strong push away from 600 will occur around July/Aug.

On a more serious note I have noticed the put/call ratio this week has stayed call heavy with the p/c ratio under 1.0. This is a change from the last several months when it seems more puts are bought than calls when we see large downswings. Especially in the morning when the share price plunges we usually see a lot of put buying skewing the put/call ratio above 1.0, however this has changed this week. Could be a bullish sign. We will see.

I'd say your downtrend line needs to be a bit lower instead of tracking that one peak......but that just simply means the point of impact of the wedge is sooner than what you have in your chart lines

 

[Krugerrand]

I see your point. I like the gloss red better but I really think the future is - no paint. Paint is a poor rust inhibitor but looks nice. Better first principal approach is a solution at the metal like in the CT.

I care little about the looks of the CT but the lack of paint and dent resistance is spectacular. Add in a little more tech possibly with some casting pieces for smoothing (maybe) and anodizing for modest color and goodbye paint as much as possible. Life of the vehicle would be long as is fitting with a million mile pack.

Add color through films for the customization some want. Much less drama with minimal rust. Happy at the shore or the salty mountain roads and no more keying your paint.

The CT style is a blend of "Back to the Future", troop transport from "Alien" and "Blade Runner". Low, wide, armored, powerful, autonomous, orbital comms (hopefully) and high utility hits a LOT of buttons. Elon has created a blank slate of possibilities that I think will explode in about 18 months.

CyberTruck - number one in the Apocalypse!

You nailed this exactly. I don’t care what cell form factor they put in my CYBRTRCK or if they fill them with Dr. Pepper.

I care that if a rogue shopping cart bangs into it, my truck giggles and says ‘that tickled’.

I care that when someone backs into me or opens their car door into me in a parking lot, my truck has nary a scratch but they need a tow truck to the scrapyard because theirs is broken beyond repair.

And finally, I care that I’ll be able to drive through a horde of walkers and come out the other end - auto wipers optional.

I concede I’m likely not the average consumer, but neither are those who care about form factor and tabs vs tabless the average consumer. Maybe in 100 years.

 

[JustSaying]

With all the reported leaks, very strongly feel 4680 will be in the Plaids. If they are ready for Austin and Berlin to start Y based production in a few months... Why would they not be used already in low volume products?

Plaid is also reported to deliver peak power from 0, all the way to the top speed. IMHO, that's something could not be possible if it was the 18650.

S/X will continue to use the 18650s, there's no reason to give away a big chunk of cell capacity when being battery constrained.

BD was over 9 months ago, and it was mentioned Tesla was running cars with 4680s back then even. I personally don't expect much on the range front, maybe round out to 420, or go full memelord at 469 - but, showing the world that 4680s are now shipping in cars, beginning with the most expensive cars they make is the most bullish news one could wish for.

FWIW, a month ago a mobile tech told me that he had worked on 2 refreshed Model S'. I asked him if they had 4680's, he didn't flinch and with out hesitation said yes.
We will see tomorrow.

 

[Nocturnal]

My local Tesla group has been asked for volunteers to help with end of quarter deliveries over the next 3 weekends. I assume it's not just local to my area. I helped out in Dec 18 and fortunately can do so again.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Not sure, have you been to other events? I've been to the Semi and Model Y unveils and battery day...maybe I'm on a list?

Could be. I've never been to another event - I'm also a more recent owner (just last year). Frankly I'm glad I didn't get invited, as I would have had to decline based on other obligations - and that would have been painful.

 

[Cherry Wine]

got some Aug 800 calls. Now back to waiting mode.

In for a handful of these yesterday. If we drop on Friday over some nonsense (or even stay flat), I'll add more. I like that they capture a number of potential developments - Plaid delivery event this Thursday; potential FSD v9 rollout and FSD subscription; Q2 production and delivery numbers; and Q2 earnings.

 

[agastya]

No. YOU care. The average person does not nor could they even tell you the difference between an Exynos and a Snapdragon chip. I don’t know a single thing about Samsung phones and barely know anything about my iPhone. I only care that it works when I turn it on.

Be careful not to assume that your interests, cares, or knowledge of a product is universally the same. It is not.

We, here, are uniquely well-versed in all stuff Tesla/Elon. I have friends with Teslas that don’t even know their car has a fart mode, let alone most of the other useful technology in it. I have friends who don’t even know their car has a slew of games. The people with young kids/gamers in the family know but most everyone else has no clue - even as owners of the vehicle.

A vast majority of consumers know only that which they see/hear in an ad, what friends/family/acquaintances/coworkers/strangers have told them or that they’ve discovered in some other passive way.

Some consumers will educate themselves about competing products when they need to buy and particularly if they consider the purchase expensive or important in some way. But still others will buy on whimsy, if it strikes their fancy or their best friend said such and such is awesome.

While our knowledge base is growing worldwide, we as a whole are still very limited in our knowledge. I guarantee, even today, the vast majority of Tesla owners and buyers not only don’t know the form factor of the batteries in their cars, they also don’t give a flip. They care that the car works for them and their lifestyle. That it’s safe or that it’s low maintenance or whatever feature is important to them.

In terms of CYBRTRCK, everybody notices the look because it’s front and center and smacks you in the face. It can’t be ignored. It’s why the initial reactions were so vehement. Some people won’t ever be able to get past those looks no matter if it poos gold bullion. They can go buy the Lightening or a Rivian or a Lords - okay, probably not one of those.

Point being, consumers often don’t know what they want or what they need until it’s shown to them and that’s because other things in life are more important to them that what kind of chip is in their cellphone that they’ll drop in the toilet and then replace with newest version the next day. They’ll know what chip is in it only if they’ve been told or they work for a company that makes it or they’re some cellphone geek.

Under the assumption that the 2170Y and 4680Y will be the same, all this holds true. I think I overstated how much people would care; I do now agree: Most people broadly would not care if the 2170Y and 4680Y are rated the same and priced the same, in which case - we will continue to only have the current Y product line,

It's just that I cannot get around the idea that with the improvements 4680 is supposed to bring, Tesla will make the "same" car. Just switching to the structural pack and fewer cells in the pack takes 150-200lbs off the weight of the car. Not to mention the range, charging and power output benefits of the 4680. Maybe, they adjusts the number of cells, adds fillers etc to nerf these gains, and make essentially what is the "same" Y?

Very much possible, it is the most boring outcome if it happens - but effective at meeting demand, also indicating that the management deems that utilization of 4680 inventory out of Kato Rd needs to be optimum.

Lets see how it transpires, just a few hours to go. I still pin hopes for 4680 to be in the S Plaids, and maybe showcasing the 4680 LR+Y as a different product.

 

[adiggs]

FWIW, a month ago a mobile tech told me that he had worked on 2 refreshed Model S'. I asked him if they had 4680's, he didn't flinch and with out hesitation said yes.
We will see tomorrow.

I would dearly love to see some evidence of the 4680s being in production in anything, followed (quickly I hope) by evidence of the 4680s being scaled up in production - such as being used for Model Y production.

 

[goinfraftw]

Some PIs did a lot of deep digging into me, even trying to friend me on FaceBook.

I caught a tracker tailing me and took him for a few joy rides. Lucky for me he was driving an ICE and I routinely lost him.

Saw his car parked near my place of work once. Got a coworker to distract him while I took a bunch of pictures of the car close up. He had a copy of my High School Yearbook open to my photo with a big question mark scrawled on my face.

When the PIs revealed what they had discovered about me back to the head honchos it was so boring that the checker that had included my handle in the lookup list was fired for stupidity and incompetence.

Then they tried to make me believe that Tesla was interested in me so that I would apply for a position. They figured that if by some miracle I was hired for a position I would sabotage the company from within due to my uselessness.

Of course the above is a pack of lies for entertainment purposes. Especially the part about FaceBook. Hell, no I am not on FaceBook.

...I don't get it

 

[Pezpunk]

I would dearly love to see some evidence of the 4680s being in production in anything, followed (quickly I hope) by evidence of the 4680s being scaled up in production - such as being used for Model Y production.

Same. It seems like a super low-volume car like the Plaid Model S would be the perfect introduction for the 4680s, without being much of a strain on production capacity. Plus being a crucial component of the world's quickest production car would simultaneously give those cells a halo effect that would increase demand for other vehicles that contain them. I am almost certain this is just wishful thinking, but i'd be happy to be wrong!

 

[Tim S]

In for a handful of these yesterday. If we drop on Friday over some nonsense (or even stay flat), I'll add more. I like that they capture a number of potential developments - Plaid delivery event this Thursday; potential FSD v9 rollout and FSD subscription; Q2 production and delivery numbers; and Q2 earnings.

Degenerate gamblers... I'm in! Grabbed a couple (Aug $800 Calls) at $10.70.