I've already cancelled my Plaid + order but I decided to wait on the X. Still a chance that it has 4680 cells or cast components. Maybe that's why Elon hasn't talked about the S's batteries? Also, I don't like paying (again) for an autopilot that hasn't lived up to projections and still may never be fully autonomous - at least while I own the car. And, Elon just bent the knee on Bitcoin which I think will have a dramatic effect on its price ... which is the main reason I wanted to cancel my orders to start with. Hopefully, the Libertarian versus Environmentalists war is over.
The way I see things is the the Raven update was hard to do, Tesla was probably butting up against design limitations in many areas, but they still managed to do the Raven upgrade, possibly bringing forward some parts of the Refresh.
But after the Raven upgrade Tesla had a very good idea what parts of the Model S needed changing and the Refresh changed everything that needed changing, but only things that needed changing, For all the focus on batteries, I think the wiring architecture is possibly a bigger deal.
It seems to me like the Refresh pack is the same shape and size as the Raven pack, and that probably has a lot of advantages.
Model X is a different vehicle entirely, 4680 might be a good fit, but that means making 2 kinds of Model S/X packs not one..
My hunch is Plaid+ was using a 200 kWh pack from the Roadster.,, and that may not be 4680, because we would need to work out how a 200 kWh 4680 single layer pack fits in the Roadster footprint... I think a single layer pack will be prefered to dual layer, even if it means some compromises.
(But the most accurate statement on the Roadster pack is. we don't currently know what cells it will use.)
Tesla Battery Day tells us, the 4680 format delivers 16% more range... and a 14% kWh cost reduction
So will a new 4680 based pack fit neatly into the Refreshed Model X without causing cascading design changes?
When will 4680 cells be available in sufficient volume?
If you are not in a rush, it may be worth waiting, at least to be 100% happy with your purchase.
But I expect to see Model Ys with 4680s made in Austin rolling off the line at Austin, before we see 4680s in Model S/X.
Tesla has confirmed 4680s in Model Y and probably Cybertruck, in any other vehicle they are merely speculation.