Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Paul_SF]

Passed what? Did someone miss the "How a Bill Becomes a Law" episode of Schoolhouse Rock?

My bad, Biden just said they have a deal. I’m editing the post.

 

[StealthP3D]

Except the stock lifted off yesterday before that Tweet, so I don't think it's that obvious.

This is why options are pure gambling and so risky. Out of the blue, TSLA just starts taking off.

This is how Gorilla stocks like Tesla behave and it's because their high growth and nearly limitless potential make them difficult to value precisely. This results in their movements being driven as much by investor sentiment and human frailties as by near-term fundamental developments. It's more of a slow rhythm and the best way to get a better feel for it is to step back and stop paying excessive attention to all the near-term noise and minute-by-minute movements of the share price and look at the bigger picture. The movements I'm talking about happen on various time scales and they tend to happen more slowly than someone paying attention to all the little movements might expect. You need patience to second guess them. They are slow and take time to play out.z

This is why I posted this two weeks ago:

I don't care too much about the short-term share price but this is the first time in months I've been more bullish than bearish in the short-term. It's still a crapshoot, as always. I liked it better in 2019 when I KNEW the stock was cheap and was going to be out-performing beyond any reasonable doubt. Now the price is such that it's not nearly as certain, even as Tesla continues to prove itself. What I would like to see is a steady, constant rise, like a freight train. What I expect is volatility and chaos. This is Tesla after all. I consider $600 a considerably better than average entry point for those who feel they don't have a large enough long-term position.

At this point I would guess it will continue to rise to somewhere in the $700's over the next two to three days, probably the low $700's before stalling out in a choppy manner (volatility) for 2-5 trading days before dropping sharply back to $630's or so with a smaller chance of a drop into the $500's. This could even happen after a relatively bullish Production & Delivery report or earnings release. But I do expect it to be above current levels within three or four months from now.

That's a lot of predicting and I wouldn't put any faith in it because these things have to be treated as moving targets, always changing. But I do like to imagine future bearish scenarios in the short-term so I'm not surprised when they happen. It could just as easily rally from here and not look back. But we know TSLA has a history of being knocked down in the short-term, even when they are performing admirably. That is the nature of Gorilla stocks and even more so one as disruptive as TSLA. Because some of the most monied interests on the planet want it to stumble and fall so they can continue to rake in the dough for as many days as possible.

 

[capster]

It's certainly possible from a mechanical perspective to require documentation that from your broker that you have held X number of shares since an arbitrary cutoff date before being eligible to participate in an offering or for being first in line.

The problem I see is this implies SpaceX shareholders are giving away something of value to TSLA shareholders. For this to be legal, SpaceX would have to be very careful to ensure that everyone pays the same price, probably by having TSLA shareholders participate in the same IPO, and that giving TSLA shareholders preference doesn't impact the offering price negatively or raise the fee charged by the IPO underwriters. An IPO is already a complex series of transaction and the act of requiring the underwriter to require their distributers to give preference to TSLA shareholders would likely result in a higher fee than would otherwise be negotiated (and this assumes it would even be compatible with existing contracts and understandings between the involved parties). Higher IPO fees would harm SpaceX shareholders to benefit TSLA shareholders which would not be legal unless all SpaceX shareholders signed off on it (good luck with that).

Also, the IPO underwriters distribution network is accustomed to using IPOs as an opportunity to favor valuable clients so they might not like restrictions on how they dole out the available shares. It's a complex problem and I'm not sure there is an easy answer. It might come down to simply asking broker/dealers to voluntarily consider filling orders from TSLA shareholders as of a certain date first. I'm far from an expert in these matters but the key principle is getting it done without harming SpaceX shareholders or causing even the appearance of harm. The harm being very small does not negate the harm.

Put another way, there is no real way that giving TSLA shareholders preference could increase the SpaceX offering price (because TSLA shareholders are already eligible to fight for SpaceX shares along with everyone else). But there are numerous ways creating a two-class system could increase fees or harm the offering price. I'm not saying lawyers definitely couldn't figure something workable out, just that it might not be easy. And any solution runs the risk of a lawsuit from disgruntled parties that would not exist if there was no attempt to give TSLA shareholders preference.

The argument could be made that investment by long-term TSLA shareholders adds value compared to other, random investors. Long-term TSLA investors have proven themselves and helped protect Tesla.

TSLA shareholders who held, say, through the summer of 2019 are exactly the kind of investors you’d want to own stock in Starlink and having them invest would benefit the SpaceX investor.

Not a bulletproof argument, but at least a leg to stand on if the SpaceX board wanted to approve the idea.

 

[Artful Dodger]

My bad, Biden just said they have a deal. I’m editing the post.

CSPAN on Twitter: "President Biden on #infrastructure: "We had a really good meeting...we have a deal." Full video here: https://t.co/U970zd6DRR https://t.co/4pMjJIcNH1" / Twitter

Doubtless there's some 'sell-the-news' going on right now.

Anybody else find it interesting that the SP is pinning near the S&P500 inclusion price?

Capping at 700, assisted by nervous MMs working to kill the 21.5K Calls open (at the start of the day) for tomorrow's expiry at the $700 Strike price.

Note that 149.3K contracts have traded already today for the $700 Call. Still, there's a lot of FOMO going around, and the vaccine is spelled TSLA.

Cheers!

 

[kengchang]

The fact that Tesla Superchargers don't appear to be affected by data outages implies Tesla made the system robust by allowing any car to charge during a data outage, even if that Tesla account was in arrears. Alternatively, each Supercharger location maintains a skeleton database of every account in arrears that is updated when it has connectivity but I find this highly unlikely because it has the problem of potentially NOT allowing an account that had been recently paid up to charge if there was a data outage. Tesla would likely rather give away a charge for free during a data outage than prevent a valid account from charging.

This is a problem of third party charge networks - they will only charge after they have connected to their corporate data center and verified payment. This probably explains why there is a large disparity between how quickly a Supercharger begins charging and how painfully long it takes third party chargers to start charging. Because the Superchargers multitasks, it starts charging right away and deals with billing in the background.

This is first-principles thinking in action, start charging as soon as it's safe to do so and deal with the boring details separately.

I am pretty sure it is actually the car that handles the billing&hand-shake process not the Supercharger.

 

[StealthP3D]

I am pretty sure it is actually the car that handles the billing&hand-shake process not the Supercharger.

That's a good point but it doesn't change the dynamics of what to do when there is no connectivity.

 

[kengchang]

That's a good point but it doesn't change the dynamics of what to do when there is no connectivity.

Car can definitely queue up the bill and post it to your Tesla account

 

[StealthP3D]

Car can definitely queue up the bill and post it to your Tesla account

That's a good point but it doesn't change the dynamics of what to do when there is no connectivity.

 

[Unpilot]

step back and stop paying excessive attention to all the near-term noise and minute-by-minute movements of the share price and look at the bigger picture.

Sure....I can stop anytime I want....really.

 

[Curt Renz]

"Brandenburg Minister Suddenly Justifies Tesla Giga Berlin's Preferential Treatment"​

Torque News - hour ago:

 

[Buckminster]

Gorilla seems to be the word of the day. Are we WSB apes now?

 

[InTheShadows]

Are we going to get a bounce off VWAP? looking like it so far.

 

[2daMoon]

I came in from mowing and the SP was in the 690s, while cooling off in the AirCon it has now started falling back.

This is a strong indicator to me...

that I need to go back outside and more grass.​

Let's see if that works.

 

[insaneoctane]

Must wait for 1000 to order Roadster! Must wait for 1000 to order Roadster! Must wait......

That’s still 250 shares for a roadster….I may have to wait until it’s 100, if I’m still alive.

 

[ChefBoyardee]

Uh, trend line? Care to share that part?

Sure! I'm just referring to this trendline that goes back to the pandemic lows. I don't know if it'll stay accurate out into the future since TSLA is growing exponentially rather than linearly but I've been using it as a gut check for my options pricing

 

[Artful Dodger]

The poor schmo shorts TSLA to the tune of a half billion one month before a breakout. I think we found the new king of contraindicators.

That was an overblown headline. The $530-odd B 'position' was the current valuation of all the shares under contract, NOT his equity in that position.

Problem is, the SEC disclosure form the Headline was based on was at least 45-days out of date (it was a Q1 disclosure) when CNBC published it.

Best guess is that Burry had maybe a $50M bet, and that was sometime nearly 3-6 mths ago (Q1). Useless info now, except for ongoing FUD chorus.

Cheres!

 

[Pezpunk]

Car can definitely queue up the bill and post it to your Tesla account

that's interesting. does that mean you could rack up infinite free supercharging if you prevent your car from ever connecting to a cell network?

 

[kengchang]

that's interesting. does that mean you could rack up infinite free supercharging if you prevent your car from ever connecting to a cell network?

Pretty easy to defeat with a check on the due balance

 

[Artful Dodger]

that's interesting. does that mean you could rack up infinite free supercharging if you prevent your car from ever connecting to a cell network?

Of course not. Salvage title cars are blocked too, because there's a list of VINs that are blocked, distributed to the SC site.

 

[insaneoctane]

Tesla confirms plan to open Supercharger network to other automakers next year

Tesla has confirmed to Norwegian officials that it plans to open the Supercharger network to other automakers by September 2022....

electrek.co

Sept 2022 (in norway at least)

Can someone help spin this as a positive for shareholders? My competitive nature is blinding me ATM