Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

Hate to say i can see in the future, but i said this yesterday:

 

[elasalle]

Tesla Delivery Growth Acceleration Continues | Deepwater

Tesla’s June deliveries are further evidence of a true growth story. Excluding the impact of the easy comps, the company appears to be in the slope of its growth S-curve. We believe the reason this is happening is a combination of consumer willingness to purchase EVs, along with Tesla’s winning...

loupfunds.com

For the June quarter, Tesla delivered 201k vehicles, in line with consensus estimates and a record for the company. Most importantly, this equates to 122% y/y growth, up from 109% in March and 61% in December. In June, the overall auto industry is going to grow around 55%.

 

[The Accountant]

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

850K for 2021 would mean around ~ 231K for Q3, Q4


My imagination goes to 240k for Q3 and 305k for Q4.

Q3 will bring S to 20k adding 18k. Call it a flat 220. We now have a SR+ Y for Q3 at least in Hong Kong which probably signals China too. Less batteries needed and we know they are adding another line. Call it 20k for 240k.

Q4 should add X to the mix and hopefully bring their combined to a 25k rate. Austin and Berlin get going to add 40k combined. US introduces SR+ Y as Austin soaks up some LR (or LR+), less batteries and switch in chemistries add in another 20k. 305k.

Both might be too high for S/X by 5k each. Big piece will be Berlin and Austin. If they can each produce 20k in Q4, 300k is within reach.

Don't forget RHD model Y. People in the UK are waiting for this, myself included. Not sure if they manage it in Q4 or not, but there is pent up demand for it.

 

[goinfraftw]

So...anyone know how far above GAAP profitability without ZEV credits did Tesla do in Q2 now that the P&D numbers are out?

 

[The Accountant]

So...anyone know how far above GAAP profitability without ZEV credits did Tesla do in Q2 now that the P&D numbers are out?

I am computing GAAP earnings without Reg Credits and Bitcoin Impairment of $420m.
If I include the Bitcoin charge, I have $325m without Reg Credits.
Will post more shortly.

 

[15Peter20]

TSLA is red whilst F is green. What the Ford?

 

[goinfraftw]

I am computing GAAP earnings without Reg Credits and Bitcoin Impairment of $420m.
If I include the Bitcoin charge, I have $325m without Reg Credits.
Will post more shortly.

Woooooooo \o/

 

[EVMeister]

I am computing GAAP earnings without Reg Credits and Bitcoin Impairment of $420m.

That number... Again.

 

[ZsoZso]

The only question about today's trading: how good of a buying opportunity we get ?

OK, this is good enough for me today. Which means it will probably drop a lot more, knowing my luck ...

 

[dww12]

Embarrassingly naive fantasy-based take. This reduces the credibility of everything you post.

First question from a lawyer:
Were you injured?
A: No.
Lawyer: Click.
Call back: But but but, my car caught on fire.
Lawyer: Did you have insurance?
A: Yes
Lawyer: Call them. Click.
Why would lawyer(s) take this no injury case for a $130k car that insurance should replace. Tesla is not known for settlements.

 

[StealthP3D]

I am computing GAAP earnings without Reg Credits and Bitcoin Impairment of $420m.
If I include the Bitcoin charge, I have $325m without Reg Credits.
Will post more shortly.

You had better check your numbers. Probably find a major mistake.

Everyone knows Tesla loses money on every car they sell and are not profitable without their primary business of selling emissions credits.


/s

 

[lafrisbee]

I predict that the release of the P&D numbers for Q2 will result in the SP ending the week at $677.49.
And it has nothing to do with>>>>

Stock Option Max Pain

maximum-pain.com

 

[MP3Mike]

First question from a lawyer:
Were you injured?
A: No?
Lawyer: Click.
Call back: But but but, my car caught on fire.
Lawyer: Did you have insurance?
A: Yes
Lawyer: Call them. Click.
Why would lawyer(s) take this no injury case for a $130k car that insurance should replace. Tesla is not known for settlements.

Especially when the Tesla warranty covers damage from a battery fire. (Even if it is the result of a driver error.) So their insurance likely wouldn't even need to pay for it.

 

[goinfraftw]

"tesla gaap" search on Twitter results in...nothing for today. Amazing.

 

[StealthP3D]

First question from a lawyer:
Were you injured?
A: No?
Lawyer: Click.
Call back: But but but, my car caught on fire.
Lawyer: Did you have insurance?
A: Yes
Lawyer: Call them. Click.
Why would lawyer(s) take this no injury case for a $130k car that insurance should replace. Tesla is not known for settlements.

Do you have any idea how much lasting emotional trauma is created when you see smoke coming out the rear of your car (especially if it's a Tesla, cars that are famous for bursting into a fireball on moments notice)? Especially when you have forgotten how to open the door? Just terrifying.

 

[dww12]

Do you have any idea how much lasting emotional trauma is created when you see smoke coming out the rear of your car (especially if it's a Tesla, cars that are famous for bursting into a fireball on moments notice)? Especially when you have forgotten how to open the door? Just terrifying.

Plot twist, “executive” is Gordon’s dad.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This was free money after the implications of 1Q P&D with market cap at $695B.

Another verification of trajectory for 2Q P&D......marketcap sits at $652B.

Outside of any MAJOR macro disruption, we are just coiling the spring yet again. Do these people realize you can't have a 100% annual growth company with a P/E of 100? That's literally insanity.....and we're a stone cold lock to be there in what, 9-16 months?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Plot twist, “executive” is Gordon’s dad.

Gordo: Dad....i told you to make it look believable
Dad: My phone was connected to bluetooth in the car and the last conversation i had was with you telling me what to do next, do you think they have a record of our conversation?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Both 'MaxPain' and my experimental 'C-P Brkpt' analysis point at 677.50

I think the fireworks (like Q1) will be delayed until next week. MMs have control.

Settling in around 677.50 (no surprise):