Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[YAWD]

Hmmm. good question.
I see that Electrek and Tasmanian reported that the Y will be sourced from Shanghai but they don't provide a source for this.

I see that @avoigt has also stated the Y to Europe is arriving from Shanghai - maybe he can provide some information.

That is precisely what I am confused about. I think social media is linking opening of order book for Model Y SR in China to Model Y LR deliveries in Europe.

 

[YAWD]

From the configurator.

Fremont Model Y interior doesn’t have the dash trim on the door. Only MIC Model Y has a dash that extends onto the door. The MIC Model Y interior image is being used for the Model Y configuration on European sites.

MIC M3 is also imported from China as well. Wouldn’t make sense for them to exclusively import M3 from China and not MY

MIC M3 is not coming to Europe this quarter (earliest delivery is Nov.). Either they are sold out or the LFP cells in 3 SR+ which was imported to Europe have been diverted to Y SR in China.

 

[GOVA]

All fine but do we know for sure that the Y LR imported into Europe is actually coming from China. I am not sure where did this conclusion come from.

Apparently, in MY waiting room, nobody received their MY this week. Either this is the 'maintenance' week or those do go to EU.

 

[YAWD]

MIC M3 is not coming to Europe this quarter (earliest delivery is Nov.). Either they are sold out or the LFP cells in 3 SR+ which was imported to Europe have been diverted to Y SR in China.

Infact even 3 LR is not coming to Europe this quarter. I suspect NMC cells used for this version have been diverted to Y LR that will imported into Europe from Fremont.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes, but you’re “seeding” other markets with a different variant than what is supposed to be produced in the local market. Elon has mentioned the Berlin MY will be a fundamentally different vehicle than the Model Y’s of today. If these MIC MY will be delivered in September, and Berlin is supposed to be producing by the end of the year… then something isn’t right?

I guess we have a few scenarios, and the truth could be a combination of a few of them

(1) Demand in China is low enough that production exceeds local demand. Tesla now ships MY to Europe to not slow down production
(2) Berlin is likely facing delays into next year, and Tesla feels they need to get MY into the European market now
(3) Berlin MY will end up being a higher cost variant into the MY lineup (Something like LR+). Perhaps Tesla adds something like a bigger screen (MS/MX size) + other additions to justify the premium

My money is on #3. The timing of the MIC MY SR China availability & CATL deal feels very connected. They likely make a killer margin on the SR+ now and further justifies getting MIC MY into Europe now.

But, but, but…irrelevant. All markets have been seeded at one time or another with a different variant. Heck, a new variant can come without warning because it’s happened - more than once.

Most of this chit chat is over thinking and of no consequence. It does NOT in anyway change investing parameters. And there is no demand problem. *huge exasperated sigh*

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Proof we def live in a simulation:

View attachment 682983

Would it seem less silly if this were titled, "Hot to invest in structurally over-shorted but inherently valueless stocks while managing trading risk"?

The media loves pushing this narrative that leveraging hedge fund mistakes to make money is somehow an amateur enterprise. It's a perfectly rational strategy. Certainly more rational than the original strategy on the other side of the wager.

 

[2daMoon]

Yes, but you’re “seeding” other markets with a different variant than what is supposed to be produced in the local market. Elon has mentioned the Berlin MY will be a fundamentally different vehicle than the Model Y’s of today. If these MIC MY will be delivered in September, and Berlin is supposed to be producing by the end of the year… then something isn’t right?

I guess we have a few scenarios, and the truth could be a combination of a few of them

(1) Demand in China is low enough that production exceeds local demand. Tesla now ships MY to Europe to not slow down production
(2) Berlin is likely facing delays into next year, and Tesla feels they need to get MY into the European market now
(3) Berlin MY will end up being a higher cost variant into the MY lineup (Something like LR+). Perhaps Tesla adds something like a bigger screen (MS/MX size) + other additions to justify the premium

My money is on #3. The timing of the MIC MY SR China availability & CATL deal feels very connected. They likely make a killer margin on the SR+ now and further justifies getting MIC MY into Europe now.

So, I guess it will be okay when Tesla begins shipping Model Y to Germany from the Port of Houston (rather than Shanghai) as they will then be getting the same vehicle from Texas as what will (eventually) be produced in Berlin?

 

[AimStellar]

 

[The Accountant]

And there is no demand problem. *huge exasperated sigh*

 

[Mengy]

View attachment 683005

This almost excites me more than Tesla automotive!

 

[Mokuzai]

View attachment 683005

Is it odd that I'm now considering investing in real estate in Texas?

 

[elasalle]

The 3/Y for China is just the appetizer.
Main course is 2023 and it will be the 25K Model ( Q ode to $TSLAQ)

till then market demand will fluctuate locally but keep expanding globally
No worries!!

 

[Unpilot]

This almost excites me more than Tesla automotive!

I'm going to be so rich.
Maybe I'll let the cat alone on the Mt. And get some smart guy to design me a chair like this.

 

[twtestw]

But, but, but…irrelevant. All markets have been seeded at one time or another with a different variant. Heck, a new variant can come without warning because it’s happened - more than once.

Most of this chit chat is over thinking and of no consequence. It does NOT in anyway change investing parameters. And there is no demand problem. *huge exasperated sigh*

Irrelevant? We’re on a Tesla Investor Forum… why would we not spend our time over analyzing scenarios and thinking through possibilities? As long as we’re not spewing FUD (Which neither of us have IMO), it’s all just good conversation.

I disagree with your “more than once” comment. I don’t recall this ever happening before.

When has Tesla imported a vehicle variant ~3 months before a next-Gen version of that variant is scheduled to be delivered? Does it not raise an eyebrow that without notice - they are importing “older gen” vehicles form elsewhere in the world when the timing is so close?

Again - I am not trying to suggest there is a demand problem. I outlined 3 scenarios and mentioned my money is on the most bullish!

 

[mltv]

The 3/Y for China is just the appetizer.
Main course is 2023 and it will be the 25K Model ( Q ode to $TSLAQ)

till then market demand will fluctuate locally but keep expanding globally
No worries!!

Somehow I have a feeling you will not see the 25K model until capacity caught up with demand for the S3XY + Cybertruck.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

200 day moving average is about 2 months from hitting the historical patch where we jumped from $400 to $880. That should rile the algos quite a bit. We're in the boring MM-owned summer doldrums, but exciting times are just ahead!

 

[generalenthu]

Very much on topic, my broker has some insightful comments on today's price action.

/S

 

[Singuy]

Irrelevant? We’re on a Tesla Investor Forum… why would we not spend our time over analyzing scenarios and thinking through possibilities? As long as we’re not spewing FUD (Which neither of us have IMO), it’s all just good conversation.

I disagree with your “more than once” comment. I don’t recall this ever happening before.

When has Tesla imported a vehicle variant ~3 months before a next-Gen version of that variant is scheduled to be delivered? Does it not raise an eyebrow that without notice - they are importing “older gen” vehicles form elsewhere in the world when the timing is so close?

Again - I am not trying to suggest there is a demand problem. I outlined 3 scenarios and mentioned my money is on the most bullish!

I think people on the forum has settled that they are exporting MY from Fremont to EU and not from China

There's a possibility on a scenario you didn't mention but has been done before, which is MY LR and P variants are going to be shipped from Fremont while Berlin Y will be a SR+ using 4680s for the EU.

I think everyone looked at battery day and think there has to be some kind of range advantage but if Tesla is starting to ramp 4680s into volume production(which he said will take another year), they may just end up putting in a small amount of those batteries into Berlin Ys to get them off the line.
This is mirroring what was done in Giga Shanghai in which SR+ was being produced while Fremont supplied LRs and P version of the M3.

 

[nativewolf]

Because unlike the US and China in Europe every important car manufacturer in the world is putting out their EV models. Not all of them in huge numbers but there are enough that most customers have real choices. There is actual competition. Teslas market share is already lower than in the US and China. If Tesla didn't raise their sales in Europe in the next 6-9 months they would be giving away important market share. It would take a lot to go from the middle of the field to market leader again.

It's more important to sell cars in Europe than anywhere else right now. Until the Berlin factory is producing, importing is the only way to do that.

The Berlin factory would have taken 3 years for anyone else to build. 18 months to plan/get permits + 18 to build.

Elon figured he could get the plan/permits part down to 3 + 12 months of Tesla speed construction.

In the end, as many predicted, he will lose another 6 months or so to the permits at the back end. Berlin will still get done in 21 months or so instead of 36 months. The problem is Elon really thought it could get done in 15. They've finally accepted that is not happening and are doing what's then needed to protect their European market during the next 6 months.

But what about the China market in the meantime? I think that doesn't really matter. In China Tesla isn't competing against the cheap China brands. They are competing against the Europeans and Americans in China. And since those brand are not even trying in China Tesla could sell the same number of cars in China for the next year and the market situation wouldn't have changed much.

The China market can wait. The European can't.

Well I agree about the EU, lots of competition there. I don't regarding China. There is competition there too; foolish to discount firms because they are Chinese. I view China as a poor investment but that's another story. Selling MIC vehicles in the EU may make a service headache for the EU service team as parts fail and repairs need to happen. It is not a small decision, every part on that MY is sourced in China, then you have to hope it works with the platform part sourced in the EU and/or the USA. Ughh, glad I'm not in charge of that logistics situation.

 

[elasalle]

Somehow I have a feeling you will not see the 25K model until capacity caught up with demand for the S3XY + Cybertruck.

Once 4680 is solved excepting battery factories in each location
Also CATL already building near Shanghai GF

a few thousand cyber trucks exported to China or 25 K for the masses?