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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Tesla releasing a new car on one continent, and then later exporting some to another continent has never, ever happened before.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
Because unlike the US and China in Europe every important car manufacturer in the world is putting out their EV models. Not all of them in huge numbers but there are enough that most customers have real choices. There is actual competition. Teslas market share is already lower than in the US and China. If Tesla didn't raise their sales in Europe in the next 6-9 months they would be giving away important market share. It would take a lot to go from the middle of the field to market leader again.
It's more important to sell cars in Europe than anywhere else right now. Until the Berlin factory is producing, importing is the only way to do that.
The Berlin factory would have taken 3 years for anyone else to build. 18 months to plan/get permits + 18 to build.
Elon figured he could get the plan/permits part down to 3 + 12 months of Tesla speed construction.
In the end, as many predicted, he will lose another 6 months or so to the permits at the back end. Berlin will still get done in 21 months or so instead of 36 months. The problem is Elon really thought it could get done in 15. They've finally accepted that is not happening and are doing what's then needed to protect their European market during the next 6 months.
But what about the China market in the meantime? I think that doesn't really matter. In China Tesla isn't competing against the cheap China brands. They are competing against the Europeans and Americans in China. And since those brand are not even trying in China Tesla could sell the same number of cars in China for the next year and the market situation wouldn't have changed much.
The China market can wait. The European can't.
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UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
The Boring Company proposal doesn't seem very fairly described in the PDF or spreadsheet, lowest passenger numbers taken, Las Vegas described as being in development rather than working.
More positively
"The five notable proposals are as follows (listed alphabetically): ● 2getthere ● BYD ● Modutram Page 17 ● Plenary Glydways ● The Boring Company"
"The Boring Company TBC has stated that its tunneling technology operates at a fraction of the cost of existing models. The proposal for San José would construct a small dual-bore tunnel with driverless electric vehicles operating on rubber tires. Stations would be located on siding tracks, allowing riders to experience point-to-point service as the vehicle would skip any intermediate stations. The vehicles themselves would be Tesla Model X or a modified version of existing production vehicles. Stations would be below-grade and accessed via vehicle elevator. The company currently operates a test track at its Page 18 Hawthorne headquarters in Los Angeles County and is currently developing a working facility at the Las Vegas Convention Center. The proposal lacked details for how the tunneling cost savings were realized. Several other aspects of the proposal were deemed questionable, such as including tunnels with radii not currently achievable by TBMs and vehicle operating speeds that are likely infeasible in a transit environment. Additionally, there are concerns regarding the ADA accessibility of the proposed vehicles. However, the proposal suggests a firm-fixed price proposal that would potentially limit agency risk and add potentially significant cost savings."
Tesla should follow up with detailed answers asap (IMO)
"Evaluation Summary Below are some general themes from the 19 proposals reviewed: ● There was a significant emphasis on vehicle technology itself, detailing the specifications and dimensions of the vehicles. ● While many of the proposals had not yet demonstrated the capabilities of their technology through real-world implementation, the proposals included a range of transit service technologies with high frequency and high throughput. ● The proposals claimed substantial cost savings relative to legacy transit systems through a variety of means. These claims deserve further investigation to confirm the magnitude of savings and ensure compliance with local standards and regulations. ● Comparatively little innovation was demonstrated with respect to project delivery, which was one of the goals of the RFI. Many of the proposed projects suggested a DBOM framework with public financing. ● Many of the proposals relied entirely on untested technologies that do not exist beyond scale model form. With the technology being thus far untested, many of the cost estimates should be considered with some level of caution. It is likely that when considering California’s rigorous regulatory environment, actual costs will be higher. ● Almost none of the proposals included a thorough discussion of capital risk management, namely which entity would be responsible in the event of cost overruns, a significant concern given the untested nature of many of the proposed technologies. ● Few of the proposals gave a great deal of consideration to emergency preparedness or made more than passing reference to ADA."
Tesla should follow up with detailed answers asap (IMO)
"Evaluation Summary Below are some general themes from the 19 proposals reviewed: ● There was a significant emphasis on vehicle technology itself, detailing the specifications and dimensions of the vehicles. ● While many of the proposals had not yet demonstrated the capabilities of their technology through real-world implementation, the proposals included a range of transit service technologies with high frequency and high throughput. ● The proposals claimed substantial cost savings relative to legacy transit systems through a variety of means. These claims deserve further investigation to confirm the magnitude of savings and ensure compliance with local standards and regulations. ● Comparatively little innovation was demonstrated with respect to project delivery, which was one of the goals of the RFI. Many of the proposed projects suggested a DBOM framework with public financing. ● Many of the proposals relied entirely on untested technologies that do not exist beyond scale model form. With the technology being thus far untested, many of the cost estimates should be considered with some level of caution. It is likely that when considering California’s rigorous regulatory environment, actual costs will be higher. ● Almost none of the proposals included a thorough discussion of capital risk management, namely which entity would be responsible in the event of cost overruns, a significant concern given the untested nature of many of the proposed technologies. ● Few of the proposals gave a great deal of consideration to emergency preparedness or made more than passing reference to ADA."
That is why the stock is up 4.61% today, lol!
Doesn’t sound like OTA will work for those…
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
The real irony on this subject is this: Yes, it is DIFFERENT. I admit, that when a new, non-Tesla driver gets behind the wheel of my car, they do need some instruction on entering Drive or Reverse because it’s different….But, when I get back behind the wheel of an ICE to do the same, I don’t think “ahhhh, this huge clunky gear shifter is waaaay better”, to the contrary, I think it’s an outdated and inferior approach just like the hundreds of other things I have to do with ICE. I can’t count how many times I have exited my ICE vehicle and closed the door, walking away before I realized I left it ON/“running”…oh, yeah, I have to do those things on this dinosaur!Yes, it took me months to learn to push down once for Drive, push down twice for Autopilot. Or is it the other way around? I still get confused about that.
Sometimes curiosity makes me want to unignore them, but then you guys convince me to leave well enough alone.
Well then Elon is obviously the second coming of Jesus because when he split the stock there was more than enough bread for all of us.According to a 'genius' analyst...a stock split does nothing for a company..essentially you are just taking 4 slices of pizza and making them 8
Why wipe your butt when it's just going to be dirty again in 3-6 months?
My kids would get beat if they came at me with this effort level.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
I'm dreading having to use a "normal"/decrepit-style UK car. Virtually all manual. No muscle-memory of clutch use, it's been too long...
+ve once you go electric, you'll have to be dragged back to manual/ICE
MSM anointed GM as a tech company today
One thing missed by most, Tesla applying for permits to build Berlin battery cell factory. They took a long time to file, because the production line wasn't validated yet, now it is, if not they would have to re-file and start over again. German inspectors will not let Teala make changes without resubmitting blueprints. Yield rate is the only mystery as of now.
I wondered about that. Found one article (google translated).
Topic is the mandatory recording devices that most trucks have around the world, but have some on the chaotic nature of truck driving in China.
Nothing specific about Tesla nor about car carriers. But still interesting and could be pertinent for comparing local delivery v.s. exporting.
- There are more than 30 million truck drivers in China.
- poor quality driving recording device that fails without informing the driver resulting in heavy fines
- many such device fails yearly, despite paying an annual service fee with arbitrary surcharge
- sampling 30 batches of recoding products produced by 27 companies, the pass rate was 70.4%
- some were required to pay "training fee" to obtain service for the device
- 99% of drivers indicated that there are "arbitrary charges and arbitrary fines"
- almost no probability of success in the appeal
- regulation is rest stops every 4 hours, but reality is often there is no where to stop
- the most common and biggest nightmare of truck drivers is being stolen. "There is no truck that has not been stolen." A truck driver told a reporter from Caijing.
- the stealing of fuel from trucks at rest stops has formed a mature industry chain
- Sometimes, even if you find that your fuel tank is being stolen at this time, you dare not get out of the car and stop it. Do you know why?" A truck driver said to a reporter from Caijing: "Because most of the oil stealers are extremely vicious. That's right, don't be stolen, your life is dead."
Original Chinese Source: 错位的北斗利益链，缠在3000万货车司机脖子上
Google translation: Google Translate
Paracelsus
Active Member
They're exporting ~33% of vehicles produced in Shanghai (quite a bit to Europe, right?)? That's...quite a lot for a factory that they said would be built to fully service the Chinese market, and the factory isn't even up to the full planned capacity yet.
Tesla makes Gigafactory 3 in China official, plans to start production in 2 years
Tesla has now confirmed the reports that came out of China this morning about a deal to allow the start...electrek.co
So why are they exporting nearly 1/3 of vehicles produced on a ~360k annual run rate?
If it's to supply more in Europe, that, imo, tells me Giga Berlin is much farther behind schedule than what's out there. Otherwise, why send vehicles to a market that will have its own factory in ~3-6 months?
If it's not, why are they ok with losing market share in China (assuming local demand is there)?
We will likely never know, but I suspect that the reason for this is that TSLA/Elon are sending a huge shot across the bow of the German bureaucrats that continue to find reasons to slow the progress of Giga Berlin. There is zero demand problems in Germany and across Europe for a TSLA product that could be manufactured very soon in Germany by Germans at GF Berlin. But it has been one BS reason after another that GF Berlin construction has been delayed. IMO this stinks of ‘protectionism’ for the entire German ICE industry, who has already put one foot in their own grave with their corrupt and coordinated emissions scandal on a global scale. And now when Germany could be accelerating the transition to sustainable transportation - if only to counter the damage done by their legacy automakers, we continue to see reasons to delay GF Berlin while VW shouts about catching up soon. Hmmmm. Surprised? Not me.
If even a portion of this is true, what better way to ‘encourage’ better behavior and more support in Germany to accelerate GF Berlin than to start selling the very same model vehicles there that just so happen to be made in China - by the Chinese TSLA team that embraced the opportunity Elon/Tesla presented them, and then rapidly accelerated and expanded that opportunity to a level that allows them to become exporters of the finest vehicles made on the planet. There is little Germany can do to stop Tesla from simply replacing the cars that could have been made n Germany with cars made in China except accelerate the completion of GF Berlin and start making those same vehicles locally. And it has to really be a huge Insult to any stuffy Germans to see a ‘made in China’ label on something that could have - and should have been made in Germany. IMO what that ‘Made in China’ Tesla label on a vehicle sold in Germany means is ‘the time for Protectionism is over - you’ve done enough damage already - the time to transition the world to sustainable transportation and energy is right now......regardless of the source of the product’
Thank you Tesla China Team for helping pave a path to a more sustainable future!
Yes, but you’re “seeding” other markets with a different variant than what is supposed to be produced in the local market. Elon has mentioned the Berlin MY will be a fundamentally different vehicle than the Model Y’s of today. If these MIC MY will be delivered in September, and Berlin is supposed to be producing by the end of the year… then something isn’t right?
I guess we have a few scenarios, and the truth could be a combination of a few of them
(1) Demand in China is low enough that production exceeds local demand. Tesla now ships MY to Europe to not slow down production
(2) Berlin is likely facing delays into next year, and Tesla feels they need to get MY into the European market now
(3) Berlin MY will end up being a higher cost variant into the MY lineup (Something like LR+). Perhaps Tesla adds something like a bigger screen (MS/MX size) + other additions to justify the premium
My money is on #3. The timing of the MIC MY SR China availability & CATL deal feels very connected. They likely make a killer margin on the SR+ now and further justifies getting MIC MY into Europe now.
All fine but do we know for sure that the Y LR imported into Europe is actually coming from China. I am not sure where did this conclusion come from.
The Accountant
Active Member
Hmmm. good question.
I see that Electrek and Tasmanian reported that the Y will be sourced from Shanghai but they don't provide a source for this.
I see that @avoigt has also stated the Y to Europe is arriving from Shanghai - maybe he can provide some information.
From the configurator.
Fremont Model Y interior doesn’t have the dash trim on the door. Only MIC Model Y has a dash that extends onto the door. The MIC Model Y interior image is being used for the Model Y configuration on European sites.
MIC M3 is also imported from China as well. Wouldn’t make sense for them to exclusively import M3 from China and not MY
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