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I don't agree with one aspect of this graph. Autos peaked in 2017 and I don't see this level being reached again for quite some time, if at all. Kids these days do not rush out on their 16th birthday to get their drivers license which was the norm before smart phones. Cars have become very expensive and together with ride sharing programs available and upcoming robotaxi, and many cycle/walk to work or take public transit. The car is much less of a status symbol (a right of passage) than it was 20 to 30 years ago. I hope I am right, as doubling global annual vehicle sales from now to 2034 and then increasing another 25% from 2035 to 2040 is not sustainable from a resource perspective, even if they are all BEVs. This is not what the world needs. Less is more. UN projects Global population will increase only 12% from now until 2040 which supports a much lower annual vehicle sales than this 220,000,000 projection. General Motors needs to hire a new consulting agency for future sales estimates.

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The methodology I think the author has used is, a simple projection of historical vehicles sales growth.

Likely causes of underestimate:-
  • Robo-taxis
  • Declining population growth
Possible sources of higher demand:-
  • Previous unmet demand.
  • Developing countries - more people being able to afford transport.
  • Some demand shifting from urban public transport
  • Robo-taxis increasing the mobility of younger and older citizens.
The key point of the graph is declining ICE demand and increasing EV demand, this means for EVs, the challenge is production, not demand.

We also must distinguish between sustainable consumption and unsustainable consumption, if consumption can be made sustainable, with no net damage to the planet and natural eco systems, it isn't bad thing.

I think Tesla's Lithium clay extraction process will work and sooner than most people think. For grid scale energy storage there are many options for example CATL has just started making Sodium batteries, that is another option in a crowded field.

Boring Co tunnels are probably an important factor in the future of EVs, because if tunneling is economic at scale, my last 2 bullet points above come into play. Most people will prefer a trip in a EV to a trip on a crowded Metro/Subway especially in the post-COVID era.
 

Lora Kolodny COULD have journalistic integrity, but that bet would flop.
Lora Kolodny would never ADMIT she has a unprofessional, biased view against Tesla and Elon Musk.

CT will be a great product and I look forward to it on the driveway. If there's a way to move up on the priority list via $1000, non refundable deposit bring it.

Happy to prove Elon wrong here. Bring on the Halo Warthog Cybertruck!
 
And we wonder why CNBS hates Tesla....Guaranteed this does not happen to a Ford or GM car:

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Just sharing some activity in twitterverse...

I guess this topic has been beaten to death here.
I have seen several Tesla enthusiasts tweeting similar theories on upcoming split, with most theories I came across centered around an announcement on July-28 or July-30 :cool:

I guess not many looked into the need for shareholder voting, shareholders approving higher share count than currently allowed.
It appears the thinking is that the board can do that without shareholder voting.


EDIT: TBH, I must say, I am not sure if shareholder voting is actually needed.
It is on this thread, I read that the voting is needed, I trust you guys :p
 
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Regarding the "Elon Admits Cybertruck Could Flop" headline.

We've now seen the "Crabwalk" and "Tank Turn" and the "K Turn" announced.

Maybe the headline alludes to how the Cybertruck has a maneuver that Elon calls "The Flop"

Perhaps, The Flop might entail tying a Rivian, a Hummer, and a Lightning to the hitch on a Cybertruck for a tug of war where CT drags them all uphill?

I'd certainly call that a Flop, wouldn't you?
 
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