Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Does anyone know what is going on?

Yes.

 

[Unpilot]

It's maybe useful to point out that Magna manufactures the Jaguar iPace and a number of others. Right now they make models from JLR, Toyota , BMW, and Toyota.

https://planttour.magnasteyr.com/index_ENG.php

Among those eight Tier One suppliers all make huge volumes of components including engineering and control/management of whatever they supply. For the prime users of these approaches the supplier independently designs whatever they supply. That is very efficient when no new technologies are needed. In new technologies, not so much. Thus we have VW id. 3 and many others, including Chevrolet Bolt.

Tesla, for the initial Model S was constrained in manufacturing, design and above all, very nearly unable to get supplier cooperation. As Elon said, 'we could not get the A team and sometimes could not get anyone at all'. Mercedes came to the rescue and had their suppliers provide many major Model S parts. As I recall, two air conditioner compressors from MB supplier, one for battery BMS and one for cabin. Suspension parts, switchgear and much else was taken form the Mercedes parts catalog without alteration.

That approach served Tesla well in the beginning, because otherwise they would not have been able to launch the Model S.

Soon, part by part, Tesla discovered better ways to accomplish something. Soon, less quickly, Tesla grew enough so respectable suppliers would actually deal with Tesla. Then, Tesla began, little by little, learning to do better by themselves, even seats (almost no other OEM made their own seats). Following many improvements Tesla borrowed a proprietary Inconel from SpaceX and gave us Ludicrous.

When Model X came along Tesla ended out designing and building many things that suppliers couldn't do. The FWD were to made by a supplier, which could not do it, so Tesla did it themselves and invited ne seniors and other thing to make them work. The vertical integration crept up bit by bit.

When Model 3 arrived Tesla began wholesale reinvention of numerous things, many of which Tesla made themselves. With Model Y and reconsideration of how to approach manufacturing after the initial mess with Model 3 came the realization that there were 'too many parts'. Then came bigger presses, even bigger bigger presses, then Gigapress and coming very soon even bigger Gigapresses. Along with those developments came hundreds of complete redesign elements including the SpaceX creation of Octovalve.

I gave just a few examples to illustrate how Tesla arrived at the highest vertical integration in the auto industry essentially by borrowing from SpaceX, which had itself been forced to vertical integration because they could not buy rockets.

Now teal designs their own FSD chips builds their own Supercomputers to get to FSD, sometime...

Today, watch Sandy Munro do teardown of BEVs. From IPace, VW, GM and Ford we see supplier dominations many dozens of different chips and complete independent major components. We see suppliers dictate complete subsystems, because the OEM does not want to do it themselves. We see dozens of different and incompatible fasteners. We also see no genuine systems integration.

The lesson for us all is that Tesla is reinventing manufacturing just as SpaceX did before it. The result is spectacular when it works. However, the learning curve has mistakes, misjudgments and uncertain timelines.

As we look at Tesla failures to deliver on time and with smoothly perfected whatever the item is we ned to remember that Tesla is redefining the automobile, redefining grid services, redefining energy storage and, in spare time, inventing a solar roof. None fo that is precisely predictable.

Were this to have been a 'normal OEM' Magna-Steyr or Valmet would be doing contract manufacturing. There would be other suppliers from the @UkNorthampton list doing most major systems. They would work. They would be reliable. They would not make anything innovative.

As we criticize Tesla faults we need regularly to remind ourselves what is actually happening.

Nothing about that makes me any less irritated that my Plaid has not been delivered, a month after promised (sort of..).

As we value TSLA shares we really need to remind ourselves that one major part is manufacturing innovation. That single thing keeps Tesla advancing versus all the OEM's who know exactly how do do this because they've done it for 'a hundred years'. Every analyst seems unable to comprehend just how consequential all this is.

Nominate above post as a must read

 

[JustMe]

Benzinga:

Ominous Death Cross Forms On Tesla's Chart

Mentioned:

TSLA

If history is any guide, there may be trouble ahead for shares of Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA). A so-called "death cross" has formed on its chart and, not surprisingly, this could be bearish for the stock.

Run for the hills!

(Then consider buying said hills with your TSLA gains)

 

[henchman24]

Late to the party, long weekend of climbing mountains... but holy f earnings! Massive beat! $6 EPS in 2021 is looking really likely which will (eventually) push 2022 estimates above 10-11. The interim share price is likely being guided by the worries on semiconductors and 'soft' growth guidance.

 

[Sudre]

An interesting test to see which earnings call is preferred.......
Lets have Elon do an intervene with Joe or Rob at the same time as the Tesla Q3 call.
Tesla's actual Q3 call will be only questions from analysts (without Elon obviously).
Elon's interview ends when the Q3 call ends.

I am wondering if this would generate a better next day response since the analysts will get what they want.... Some of us know what the analysts want. They want an explanation on why Tesla was able to make such a profit and if it is a one time thing. Most of us already know why Tesla made such a profit because we have been following and listening to what Tesla has been saying over the last dozen or more Q calls. Analysts have not. They have only been focused on current numbers at the time. They are not putting the puzzle together.

Those that actually want to know the future of this growth company will get to hear about the next product which will generate billions in profits. Maybe the next machine that will massively rethink how things are made. Yah there will be a bunch of rehash but that one nugget might slip out. I know they can make billions off Model 3&Y. I know S&X is going to flesh out production. Now tell me about how the Cyber-products are going to be made... or something along those lines. I will listen to the Q3 call later. I want to know how the next thing is coming along. That's why I have Tesla valued so high.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Speaking of double takes, Morgan Stanley views TSLA as Overweight, but then goes on about it being a "Double Flywheel" of momentum bc of its lead. Doesnt make sense, why overweight then decribe how they will dominate the future. Was in news on TD site, an error maybe?

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Imagining LUCID opening a store next to Tesla at the mall only to find Tesla store closed

That's very close to what's happening in Vancouver.

Tesla closed a store, while Lucid is building one a block away. Looks like they are mimicking that part of the Tesla plan.

Tesla permanently closes store on Robson Street | Urbanized

The Tesla showroom on Robson Street between Burrard and Hornby streets in downtown Vancouver has shut its doors for good.

dailyhive.com

Electric Vehicle Company ‘Lucid Motors’ to Enter Canada with 1st Retail Showroom that will feature Virtual Reality

The company is entering the Canadian market in the third quarter this year as a disruptor to Tesla, Polestar and Genesis Motors.

retail-insider.com

 

[Krugerrand]

Late to the party, long weekend of climbing mountains... but holy f earnings! Massive beat! $6 EPS in 2021 is looking really likely which will (eventually) push 2022 estimates above 10-11. The interim share price is likely being guided by the worries on semiconductors and 'soft' growth guidance.

You better not have been on my mountain!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Speaking of double takes, Morgan Stanley views TSLA as Overweight, but then goes on about it being a "Double Flywheel" of momentum bc of its lead. Doesnt make sense, why overweight then decribe how they will dominate the future. Was in news on TD site, an error maybe?

That is MS way of tapering the SP so it can pitch it to their clients on how attractive it is currently at these levels.

 

[SN_8]

Speaking of double takes, Morgan Stanley views TSLA as Overweight, but then goes on about it being a "Double Flywheel" of momentum bc of its lead. Doesnt make sense, why overweight then decribe how they will dominate the future. Was in news on TD site, an error maybe?

"Overweight" means that they recommend being overweight TSLA in your portfolio. It's a good thing.

 

[SOULPEDL]

"Overweight" means that they recommend being overweight TSLA in your portfolio. It's a good thing.

Seriously? If that isn't misleading!!!
I'll del the other one... too funny.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Hey, guess what... Morgan Stanley is Overweight on TSLA!

Morgan Stanley says Tesla will surge 22% from current levels in its first bullish call on the stock since 2017

Morgan Stanley's upgrade derives in large part from the inclusion of Tesla's services revenue in its valuation of the electric-car maker.

markets.businessinsider.com

 

[SN_8]

Seriously? If that isn't misleading!!!
I'll del the other one... too funny.

I'm more of what you would describe as obese on TSLA, and consume more of those marshmallow LEAPs seemingly daily.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Hey, guess what... Morgan Stanley is Overweight on TSLA!

Tesla rises after Morgan Stanley finally upgrades to buy, says company on verge of 'profound' shift

Morgan Stanley upgraded Tesla on Wednesday and sees the company's services business as a key to unlocking more revenue.

www.cnbc.com

I don't think the market understands "Overweight" either...

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

"Overweight" means that they recommend being overweight TSLA in your portfolio. It's a good thing.

I’m definitely overweight…in more ways than one.

 

[Curt Renz]

Morgan Stanley 4-page note this morning. First page here (read Sawyer's tweet for full note). I know we joke about Adam Jonas,/Morgan Stanley but they now seem to get it better than most analysts (and all the while still grossly-underestimate all parts of Tesla - no analyst yet fully understands where Tesla is heading and it's insurmountable lead in virtually everything it touches):

View attachment 689111

https://twitter.com/x/status/1420250361290502144

Benzinga - headline only - this morning: UPDATE: Morgan Stanley On Tesla Inc. Overweight: Firm Sees A 'Double-Fly-Wheel' Scenario As Co. Can Leverage Cost Leadership In EVs To 'Aggressively' Expand User Base Generating A Higher Percentage Of Revenue From Recurring/High-Margin Services Revenue

 

[SOULPEDL]

Fords on my calendar for Earnings today. Let's put it this way, they're not having that pre-earnings runup that we get, how come?
So bad news on auto = bad for TSLA? Hammering on the parts shortage I'm sure so then Tesla's problem as well.

FORD: Past 5-days

 

[Curt Renz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1420388600185774085

 

[canoemore]

You better not have been on my mountain!

Huh. Given all the bluster I assumed you would have had the surveillance in place to know one way or the other. This blind spot will likely be of interest to @Unpilot.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Benzinga - headline only - this morning: UPDATE: Morgan Stanley On Tesla Inc. Overweight: Firm Sees A 'Double-Fly-Wheel' Scenario As Co. Can Leverage Cost Leadership In EVs To 'Aggressively' Expand User Base Generating A Higher Percentage Of Revenue From Recurring/High-Margin Services Revenue

Benzinga's method to hide that this a bullish thing.........make the headline so incredibly tough to read that no one bothers to open up the article