Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

This feels very bullish when you combine these two observations.

All day, I kept waiting for the walk down <$710 today given the dearth of trading volume.

I already posted today. The chart on Maxpain indicates that the SP at close tomorrow will be above $710, and below $720.
The most likely disruptor to this would be the release of China's Production Numbers.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Largely true. However, I suspect the "Big 3" told the president that the UAW needs to be pulled onboard to keep the legacy automakers' EV ship afloat.

True

Dan

 

[jerry33]

Gotta disagree with you on one point. I owned a Chevy Volt for years. Hardly ever used gas at all. I think most owners used it that way whenever possible.

Dan

The Volt was different because it actually had a bit of range, but my understanding is that in Europe most plug in hybrids are never plugged in. That's why the credits for them are going away.

 

[wipster]

If the workers create, and join, the NAU, that would protect them, and Tesla, from the UAW trying to come in and take over right? So it could be a good thing.

Tesla couldn't start/run the union, but the workers could create a lightweight union that supports their needs.

How about calling it the UnUnion?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I already posted today. The chart on Maxpain indicates that the SP at close tomorrow will be above $710, and below $720.
The most likely disruptor to this would be the release of China's Production Numbers.

If the China numbers do come out tomorrow before trading.......and they're very good........the collection of buying volume on Monday, early Tuesday....becomes pretty suspicious. Those groups of buy orders definitely bucked the trend of the volume that we've seen for a while.

 

[larmor]

I do think that we need some pictures of the Secretary of Transportation driving his Tesla though! What a great thing to show the American people! Maybe even a great writeup about it in Clean Technica!

Tesla is still a California company and hence not part of America. And California remains the fifth largest economy in the world.

 

[CHGolferJim]

So, what you're saying is that when backed into a corner by a superior predator, rats that are usually fighting one another will team up to fight together?

Got it.

Nah, my view is these guys put the odds of this happening as pretty low and they aren't too worried, or maybe they are occasionally worried because they occasionally think beyond a few years out. It was a command performance by the President and everyone came and smiled, and will wait to see if the presidents and Congresses of the 20s have the desire and strength to push to make it happen. My view is the US federal government is increasingly ineffective -- it's up to innovators and consumers to force change, meanwhile the non-innovators (like all these guys) will just try to hang on while extracting subsidies.

 

[Fred42]

Friendly bet: the incentive will be written such that Ford and GM vehicles are fully eligible even if built in Mexico.

GM is investing $800 million in an EV plant in Oshawa, Ontario. Ford plans to assemble five battery-powered models beginning in 2025 at the company’s Oakville, Ontario plant.

Canadian auto workers have their own union, not UAW.

GM to Invest Nearly $800m for EV Output at Ontario Plant

www.bloomberg.com

 

[wipster]

Secretary Pete charging his Tesla:

 

[CHGolferJim]

Tesla is still a California company and hence not part of America. And California remains the fifth largest economy in the world.

It's also not a battleground state. If we get to more than a couple GF's around the country and >10% of car sales and auto employment, the dynamic could dramatically change.

 

[Maarten]

It's also not a battleground state. If we get to more than a couple GF's around the country and >10% of car sales and auto employment, the dynamic could dramatically change.

GF stands for girlfriend?
Yeah I totally agree with what you are saying.

 

[thx1139]

If the China numbers do come out tomorrow before trading.......and they're very good........the collection of buying volume on Monday, early Tuesday....becomes pretty suspicious. Those groups of buy orders definitely bucked the trend of the volume that we've seen for a while.

Have a feeling that the China numbers will allow for to much interpretation. I think they will be the largest month ever, but also the largest export month ever which will give ammunition to TSLAQ that Tesla sales in China have hit a wall.

 

[wipster]

Tesla is still a California company and hence not part of America. And California remains the fifth largest economy in the world.

And wait until they move the HQ to that other country, Texas, where they build vehicles but they can't sell them there...

How long do you think that will last?

 

[jerry33]

And wait until they move the HQ to that other country, Texas, where they build vehicles but they can't sell them there...

How long do you think that will last?

Until the Dealer Association's money runs out.

 

[Words of HABIT]

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Have a feeling that the China numbers will allow for to much interpretation. I think they will be the largest month ever, but also the largest export month ever which will give ammunition to TSLAQ that Tesla sales in China have hit a wall.

This thought was brought up a week or two ago, but May and June had exports as well and the stock didn't trade negatively off of those numbers and from what I saw across the board in the media, the numbers were actually reported pretty fairly on those months....in terms of using the combined number of local deliveries and exports.

The reason the April FUD was so strong in creating the narrative of diminishing China demand was 1) You had a massive smear campaign already going on in China about quality to create doubt in demand and 2) The April numbers, even with exports, were surprisingly low, especially on the Y production which at the time, FUD'sters could attach the low production rate to low demand.

If Tesla does above 40k in total for July, I think it would show a massive production expansion underway and could actually be a catalysts to get volume to come in. 40k total production would have big implications for Q3 P/D numbers.

 

[larmor]

And wait until they move the HQ to that other country, Texas, where they build vehicles but they can't sell them there...

How long do you think that will last?

While there are huge benefits to Texas for industry and consumers, the benefits are not for all: for example deregulation means that auto insurance rates are very high. The dealer association blocking direct from manufacturer sales is another example.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Whatever the politics of that EV summit are, it's pretty clear that the EV momentum is increasing and public policy is embracing it. And that is good for Tesla.

Yeah, not long ago unions were bashing EVs. That has been quashed. Not long ago, Ford and GM were bashing EVs. That has been quashed. The rebates are back, that’s good. All in all I guess this is a good day.

 

[Prunesquallor]

You are assuming the Model 2/Q is going to be sold in the US, and right now most people think it will be China/Asia/Europe only to start with. Americans don't like the small "Smart" cars which dominate most other regions very much and there isn't any reason to sell them here first.

We’ll, it all depends on what the car is. Smart Car or Camry.

 

[2daMoon]

Nah, my view is these guys put the odds of this happening as pretty low and they aren't too worried, or maybe they are occasionally worried because they occasionally think beyond a few years out. It was a command performance by the President and everyone came and smiled, and will wait to see if the presidents and Congresses of the 20s have the desire and strength to push to make it happen. My view is the US federal government is increasingly ineffective -- it's up to innovators and consumers to force change, meanwhile the non-innovators (like all these guys) will just try to hang on while extracting subsidies.

I think we are in agreement. In no way did I mean to imply Team Rat actually had hope or intention of successfully defending the corner they find themselves in. They either already know they are doomed, or, are teetering upon the cusp of this realization.

We seem to be in agreement that it was a dog and pony show to help the naive feel better about what they are watching without their having to trouble themselves with the burden of comprehension. Rah, rah, rah.

All the while, each attendee's focus is likely more upon determining when would be the most opportune time to pull the ripcord on their golden parachute. Thus, making any promises alluded to today instantly become somebody else's problem tomorrow.