Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prime_Number]

Not to lose sight of the forest for the trees...

This means with the $10k credit, the Model 2 will cost only $15,000 ! Tesla will cleanup like nothing we can imagine now .

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Not to lose sight of the forest for the trees...

This means with the $10k credit, the Model 2 will cost only $15,000 ! Tesla will cleanup like nothing we can imagine now .

You are assuming the Model 2/Q is going to be sold in the US, and right now most people think it will be China/Asia/Europe only to start with. Americans don't like the small "Smart" cars which dominate most other regions very much and there isn't any reason to sell them here first.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You are assuming the Model 2/Q is going to be sold in the US, and right now most people think it will be China/Asia/Europe only to start with. Americans don't like the small "Smart" cars which dominate most other regions very much and there isn't any reason to sell them here first.

It would actually make more sense for Tesla to just focus on the Model 2 for market every except for the US. With a 10k credit, the Model 3 would drop into a price range that it would effectively become the Model 2 for the US markets.

 

[Prime_Number]

You are assuming the Model 2/Q is going to be sold in the US, and right now most people think it will be China/Asia/Europe only to start with. Americans don't like the small "Smart" cars which dominate most other regions very much and there isn't any reason to sell them here first.

Transitioning the world to sustainable energy is the reason the Model 2 will also be sold in North America.

For many, the gas savings alone would pay for the lease of a Model 2.

 

[SunCatcher]

Wonder who @POTUS favors in all the legacy OEM's?

View attachment 692603

Biden to all the legacy OEM EV posers; "Ya'll listen to me closely; you got until 2030 to get this EV ball thingy rolling. You know as well as I do that none of us will be here when that time comes, so just nod your heads and say 'yes' ".

 

[Paul_SF]

Biden to all the legacy OEM EV posers; "Ya'll listen to me closely; you got until 2030 to get this EV ball thingy rolling. You know as well as I do that none of us will be here when that time comes, so just nod your heads and say 'yes' ".

And that’s why we can’t move fast enough, this old farts don’t care about the future because they won’t be in it! Ridiculous! ( don’t feel offended if you are old, I specifically meant those old farts, I know all older people here care about the future, even if they won’t be in it!)

 

[Unpilot]

2030....how nice. The kick the can down the rd mentality is in full display.
The thing is that rd will either be underwater or on fire in many parts of the world by then.

But yeah lets wait another 9 years to start the change over.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Transitioning the world to sustainable energy is the reason the Model 2 will also be sold in North America.

For many, the gas savings alone would pay for the lease of a Model 2.

It's about production capability and expansion though. When Model 2 gets announced, it'll practically be sold out for at least a couple years worldwide. There's no point in sending any to the US when the Model 3 with essentially a 10k price cut can fill the demand that is effectively the "Model 2 demand" for the time being. That's actually better "for the mission" because it maximizes Tesla's current and near term planned production capability.

Sure in like 3-4 years when Tesla has built a Model 2 Gigafactory here in the US, then it makes sense to release the Model 2 in the US markets.

 

[thx1139]

It's about production capability and expansion though. When Model 2 gets announced, it'll practically be sold out for at least a couple years worldwide. There's no point in sending any to the US when the Model 3 with essentially a 10k price cut can fill the demand that is effectively the "Model 2 demand" for the time being. That's actually better "for the mission" because it maximizes Tesla's current and near term planned production capability.

Sure in like 3-4 years when Tesla has built a Model 2 Gigafactory here in the US, then it makes sense to release the Model 2 in the US markets.

Should open in 2023. Tesla has the $ to get the new factory started almost immediately. I imagine they will have space in Texas although I still say build a factory in the rust belt like Michigan.

Oh also so what is the next GM electric car after the Bolt and when? Is it the lowwwwwwww volume Hummer?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Previous low was 13,953,338 on 7/21

That was the 8 PM vol on 2021/07/21. Right now, you should compare to the 4 PM vol which was 13,662,640 on that date.

It would appear that MMs are largely sitting out right now for some reason...

Cheers!

 

[jerry33]

Having the big three legacy automakers go electric is all good.

It would be, but they are not. Hybrids are included, and plug-in hybrids are rarely plugged in, they are just used as gas cars.

 

[mickificki]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1423384430593327105

https://twitter.com/x/status/1423325672655753220

 

[MC3OZ]

Why a disadvantage? Tesla employees could have a $1 a year union. It just won't be UAW. And it will negotiate on an all volunteer basis when the NEXT meeting will occur (around a year later).

I suggest that they call it the "Not A Union, Union".

Playing this up and turning it into a joke is good marketing.

Being seen as a rebel at war with the current government appeals to some car buyers.

Run up the joke union and there is a good chance Tesla can get 100% of the incentives, free marketing, more appeal to right wing voters and left wing voters who feel they are unfairly bring snubbed.

If it comes down to a highly contested count case on whether "Not A Union" is really a union with Elon posting comments on Twitter about the UAW, even better.

Often a perceived problem is really an opportunity.

 

[UkNorthampton]

There is a scenario where having the legacy automakers going electric can actually slow down the mission. Given that Tesla is able to make a better product from same or less battery than the legacy autos, diverting battery supply to build inferior products will slow down Tesla's production capability ramp for as long as the demands for good electric cars are not met yet.

i.e. given some battery supply capacity, Tesla is able to produce more of the better product vs less of the inferior product from legacy autos. For as long as there are unmet demand for tesla's product, letting legacy taking away some of the battery production capacity will slow down the mission overall.

More stuff built, cheaper prices, faster etc - Wright's Law etc. Anyone on the fence about a new mine/cell factory has just stamped a big YES on the proposal

 

[insaneoctane]

He just specifically cited the EV credit idea that gives $7500 to any EV, $2500 more if made in US, and $2500 more for union made.

I’m really stuck on the third. How does the US taxpayer OR EV buyer benefit more from a union made EV?

 

[Blue horseshoe]

I reread the SEC proxy statement for Elons stock based compensation and I previously incorrectly stated the revenue tranches are unlocked on an annualized basis. This is incorrect. Per the SEC filing:

Measurement of the Operational Milestones will be based on the previous four consecutive fiscal quarters for each of Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA, each to be determined on an aggregate basis, based on publicly disclosed Tesla financial statements.

Proxy Statement

www.sec.gov

The above quoted section can be found on page 12.

So Tesla accounting for SBC in q1 indicates the board believes it is probable Tesla will generate $55B in revenue in the near term on an aggregated trailing 4 quarter basis.

 

[Accident]

Honestly if you get past the launch month and month after the ID.3 and ID.4 numbers look pretty bad. They slumped badly. It is possible that the ID.3 will sell less in 2021 then it did in 2020 even thought it wasnt launched until 2nd half of 2020.

VAG continues to increase MEB platform vehicles every month. Last quarter VAG global sales went up 85% QoQ and 259% YoY

 

[MC3OZ]

There is a scenario where having the legacy automakers going electric can actually slow down the mission. Given that Tesla is able to make a better product from same or less battery than the legacy autos, diverting battery supply to build inferior products will slow down Tesla's production capability ramp for as long as the demands for good electric cars are not met yet.

i.e. given some battery supply capacity, Tesla is able to produce more of the better product vs less of the inferior product from legacy autos. For as long as there are unmet demand for tesla's product, letting legacy taking away some of the battery production capacity will slow down the mission overall.

Tesla has a lot of their battery suplly on long term contracts, all suppliers know they can get solid long term high volume deals with Tesla.

Tesla is starting in house battery manufacture.

The reality is even with government help, other US automakers will struggle, and will make significantly lower volumes of EVs. The narrative that EVs are the future helps Tesla.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Ok, so UAW is running the show. Pretty much explicitly stated.

Yup, this was about ensuring union votes in the next election...nothing more.

Dan

 

[CHGolferJim]

It would be, but they are not. Hybrids are included, and plug-in hybrids are rarely plugged in, they are just used as gas cars.

I suppose the analytical thinking in DOT/White House is the Big 3 can't reach the mileage standards without hybrids and some electrics, so that had to be included to get buy-in to the 40%+ target. I think the purpose of the public announcement was to push the Big 3 and UAW to a public commitment to get moving, and then consumers will determine if their cars are competitive. We'll see if the current and future administrations are capable of making the "commitments" happen whether the funding arises or not. Most likely most of the new cars will be marginally competitive to Tesla like the Bolt -- of marginal quality, and unprofitable even before recall costs and rebates, thus unlikely to be of any real help to the UAW in maintaining dues, er jobs, and further undermining the dealer network.