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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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TMC was down in Az all morning. It was aweful. I had no way to find out why the stock dropped. I tried generic searches and got lost in twitter etc...
At one time, I thought... could they be killing this forum because we're so darn good at snuffing out FUD?

I'm relieved TMC is up now, it's my only go-to for Tesla truth. Youtube is great, but not real-time. I had no idea how hard it is to find the real stories out there. TMC deserves more credit now; it really suck without it on days like this.

Meanwhile, I bought 25 shares on a strong hunch it was more FUD. Especially bc the FSD 9.2 release over the weekend. So timing was planned... again.
 
In SpaceX-land things are getting spicy: Bezos has sued NASA over the Human Landing System award (which SpaceX won). They have also asked for a stop-order-injunction-thingy (sorry, English legalese is not my strong point). It's very unlikely to go through, according to many IANALs, but this is definitely peak /popcorn in the whole HLS/SpaceX/Blue Origin saga.

I don't even have any anger leftover to get mad at the Tesla FUDsters, so that's something.
OT sort of - Bezos strategy worked for JEDI, where the Pentagon eventually cancelled the contract, so the thought process is, why not try here? Even if he doesn’t win, it might change the way NASA considers future bids. In the long run, the focus on engineering and mission should win for SpaceX. That is on topic as it is same philosophy that underlies TESLA. I have my money, literally on Elon’s company.
 
Having trouble parsing that, so sorry.
A "series" of "fatal crashes" left a total of 1 person dead?
Must be because English is my second language, I guess? Or something to do with CNB?
I believe you meant to respond not to my post, but to the post to which I was responding.

The author did not include the word "fatal" in her related sentence within her article. However, I would assume that the an ignorant/sensationalist CNBC copy editor added the word "fatal" in the headline.
 
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probably DNS problem
I’m in SW florida
iPad was connected, no problem
laptop rebooted, could not re-connect
anyone try direct IP connect using IP and “whois” lookup?

Don't think it is a DNS problem: when my laptop didn't connect I wiped out the Firefox history (for good measure), ismywebsiteup saw no issues but I still couldn't connect. While connecting with another laptop (my backup, accessed via remote desktop locally) and VPN it had no problem (VPN was needed).

FWIW - last week I have noted some issues with other websites in Firefox, Vivaldi and Google, clicking on links that did not resolve while they did resolve fine using Edge - could be some of the adblockers (I only use uBklock origin, but not on Firefox, and I keep Edge clean of all extensions, so who knows). IThere weren't any issues before

>> iPad connected, maybe it was using your Verizon cellphone tower ISP connection, not your local Wifi?

FWIW - weekends are often times when major changes in networking settings/ equipment are made, so could be a Monday lemon day - PLUS with all the new malware popping up, it may also be that some browsers are tightening settings.

[OT] That would be a new form of market manipulation: block/ disrupt a good portion of the trading houses comms, with thinner markets drive the price down, then when comms recover, algos and people might go with the short term trend and sell more .. then wait for the price to return to normal .. and pocket short term gains. This works assuming markets are somewhat still "normal".
 
This sounds like it is more out of personal spite than an objective view of Tesla and ARK
No I think during the run up after the March crash, he saw that puts are becoming cheap during which treasury interest rate was taking a dump due to covid 2.0. He is betting that there will be a March crash 2.0 as we maneuver through covid 2.0 and is expecting rates to rise again.

Remember he bought options, not shorting these stocks..which means it's time sensitive. He is betting between now and whenever it expires, there will be some strong volatility/sector transition in which he can make a killing and cash out before expiring. This is a casino play and he doesn't care if ARKK or TSLA eventually goes to the moon. He is thinking that somewhere in there another major (maybe a one day event) crash will happen again like last time for him to take advantage.
 
Numbers speak for themselves. For those that just don't get it, well, I just gotta get on with my life and my new discounted shares.


total_work_18_19.png


total_work_18_19.png
 
It was clear that the MM's were nervous last week of the possibility of a share dividend (split). that's why the volume was at historical lows... and the short interest in TSLA dropped... now that the AGM agenda has been announced, they are right back to their games....
It does not look likely that there will be share dividend before the end of the year, unless the Board calls a special meeting for a vote to increase treasury shares. However, I would not assume that there won't be other substantial fireworks before the end of the year. I think there is a reason why the Board elected to not increase the share count. Everything Tesla does (and/or chooses not to do) has a reason. My imagination runs when situations like this occur. I am always trying to connect dots that might (but usually don't) exist. In the past couple of years, I have made several posts about maneuvers that the Company could make that would squeeze the shorts. The gist of my idea was to distribute to TSLA shareholders equity shares in a different company or say, crypto shares; i.e., distribute shares that are not available for the shorts to deliver to the rightful owners of TSLA stock. It is obvious now that the dividend split achieved this purpose.

Elon said (something like) "Tesla superchargers will be available for other, non-Tesla cars before the end of the year". Tesla chose to not increase authorized shares, even though everything seems to point toward it being a reasonable if not necessary corporate action, given the small of amount unissued, authorized shares. Before the share dividend, I posted that I thought a spinoff of the Supercharger network (TSLA owners being partial owners) would be something that could/should be done. Looking back I can see that that action would have been premature then. But now, I think might be the time. I'm not going to list all my reasons at the moment. I'll be glad to discuss further.
 
I believe you meant to respond not to my post, but to the post to which I was responding.

The author did not include the word "fatal" in her related sentence within her article. However, I would assume that the an ignorant/sensationalist CNBC copy editor added the word "fatal" in the headline.
Correct, I got a bit cross-eyed there. Sorry for the wrong misappropriation by mistake. :oops: ;)
 
Benzinga - 14 minutes ago: Elon Musk Shares A List Of Improvements For FSD Beta V9.2

Excerpt:

The most exciting improvements seem to be a faster acceleration after turning, and improvements in "VRU" (vulnerable road users like pedestrians or cyclists) detection, meaning the car will better be able to predict how to interact with these individuals. Musk's post always gives technical details on how some improvements were made, and that parts of the neural net has been updated with double the amount of data compared to previous versions.
 
Findings (from this exercise):
- Kirkhorn took over as CFO in Q1/2019 to replace Deepak Ahuja. They started implementing the "Installed Capacity" terminology in Q2/2019 and fully established it in the earnings reports in Q3.
- They changed "450000" to ">450000" in Q2 2021 earnings report, so its hard to tell how well they are optimizing their lines.
- S/X has been a dead line for years and, likely, secondary while Plaid is developed in the background in place of the Model 3/Y ramps. I'm guessing that Tesla has a 1-1.5 year design time for their products based on this.
- They ramped Fremont and Shanghai at the same time for Model 3/Y. I'm guessing they're going to take the learnings from that endeavor and apply it to Giga Texas/Berlin to quicken their ramps.
- Wow, is there a lot of missed margin from the S/X line over the past 2 years that Plaid is going to just impress with starting Q3 and Q4 of 2021.

"Installed Capacity" over the years:

View attachment 697105

Production from P&D Report over the years:

View attachment 697106

Spreadsheet used:

View attachment 697107

Did a follow-on chart calculating the run-rate for 3/Y vs. the total installed capacity for 3/Y:

Screen Shot 2021-08-16 at 12.20.39 PM.png


Also, calculated an "error rate" between installed capacity and actual production on a quarterly basis to identify the gap:

Screen Shot 2021-08-16 at 12.27.05 PM.png


They've definitely been getting better at maximizing their installed capacity utilization.

Wonder if someone, I guess I could give it a try, could potentially look at this and see revenue vs. expenses on the same quarterly basis to see any other insights?
 
Don't think it is a DNS problem: when my laptop didn't connect I wiped out the Firefox history (for good measure), ismywebsiteup saw no issues but I still couldn't connect. While connecting with another laptop (my backup, accessed via remote desktop locally) and VPN it had no problem (VPN was needed).

FWIW - last week I have noted some issues with other websites in Firefox, Vivaldi and Google, clicking on links that did not resolve while they did resolve fine using Edge - could be some of the adblockers (I only use uBklock origin, but not on Firefox, and I keep Edge clean of all extensions, so who knows). IThere weren't any issues before

>> iPad connected, maybe it was using your Verizon cellphone tower ISP connection, not your local Wifi?

FWIW - weekends are often times when major changes in networking settings/ equipment are made, so could be a Monday lemon day - PLUS with all the new malware popping up, it may also be that some browsers are tightening settings.

[OT] That would be a new form of market manipulation: block/ disrupt a good portion of the trading houses comms, with thinner markets drive the price down, then when comms recover, algos and people might go with the short term trend and sell more .. then wait for the price to return to normal .. and pocket short term gains. This works assuming markets are somewhat still "normal".
Connecting to a VPN would seem to indicate DNS (at the site host level) still. My guess is DNS servers. Happens every once in a while with my work site via Cloudflare as well (I noticed a few incidents mentioned on the status page for them this morning too...guessing it's related)
 
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